On June 11, the terrorist Islamist organisation Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sahm, ISIS, sent shock waves across the Middle East following its advances in Iraq and its capture of the city of Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq. As a result, the Turkish government seems to find itself in a rather delicate situation. Forty nine Turkish diplomats were abducted by ISIS from the Turkish consulate in Mosul upon their seizure of the city. The group also kidnapped 31 Turkish truck drivers. Following the news of the kidnappings, the Turkish foreign minister assured that his government would do its best in see the release of its abducted nationals and vowing to retaliate against the group if hostages were to be harmed. The hostage crisis revived negative sentiments against the Turkish government's policies in Syria. Many in Turkey and abroad repeatedly accused the Turkish government of turning a blind eye to the flow of jihadists to Syria through Turkey as part of its open-border policy, which it argued was meant to help the fleeing Syrians. The open-border policy has been giving easy access for foreign and Turkish fighters to join the different groups operating in Syria. In fact, the Turkish media reported on June 26 that a wounded 14 year-old who fought alongside ISIS in Syria, was delivered to the army at the Turkish-Syrian border. According to Turkish daily Miliyet, the boy left his home with four other friends about a month ago and paid 20 Turkish Liras ($8) to smugglers to cross the border from southern province Kills to the Syrian territory controlled by ISIS. The Turkish government was also accused of supporting the radical groups in Syria by allowing them to set training camps near the border. Erdogan and his allies repeatedly denied those allegations. Thus, the recent hostages crisis saw government opponents blaming it for the rise of the ISIS. Following a media backlash, Erdogan warned against reporting on the hostages issue in order to maintain their safety. Shortly after Erdogan's warning, a court issued a gag order on reporting on the hostages situation by all types of media in Turkey. The recent development as troubling for Erdogan and his government for different reasons. As the ISIS gained ground in Mosul and as the Iraqi army flee the city and abandoned their posts, the Northern Iraqi Kurdish forces, known as Peshmerga, took advantage of the security void and took over the city of Kirkuk. The city is considered by many Kurds as their historical capital of Kurdistan. The city is also significant due to its abundant oil reserves. Therefore, Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq is now expected to declare independence after it gained control over Kirkuk, something that Turkey was not ready for. "Ankara's concern is that Kurdish independence could send a signal to its own disaffected Kurdish population," said Merve Tahiroglu, a research associate at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). "Ankara grew concerned after the seizure of Kirkuk when the PKK announced its support for the Peshmerga forces, saying it was ready to fight alongside them." Tahiroglu also stated that Turkey is worried about the economic implications of the deteriorating situation in Iraq. "Iraq has become a major trade route for Turkish trade with the Gulf, especially with Syria in turmoil. This is bound to prompt Turkey to look for other means to establish trade routes." The situation comes at a time when the Turkish prime minister and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) are arguably facing one of the most difficult years in their 12 year-long rule. The Turkish government has been fighting what it calls a "parallel state" led by the United States-based preacher Fethullah Gulen. Erdogan and his party argued that Gulen was behind the Dec 17 corruption investigation that targeted government officials and businessmen close to government. Also, last month, June 2014, was the first anniversary of last year's nationwide Gezi Park protests that lasted for over a month and challenged Erdogan and his rule. The government responded to both, the protests and the investigation with defiant rhetoric, police crackdown and granting more powers to the government. Erdogan faced mounting criticism over the past year for growing authoritarian rhetoric, and at times policies, that were aimed, according to critics, at silencing any dissent voices. Erdogan is also expected to run in the first public presidential election to be held in August. Meanwhile, some pro-government circles suggest that the hostages crisis could be an attempt by certain "organizations" to sabotage Erdogan's chances in the upcoming presidential elections. "We can't be sure for now but I will not be surprised if the countries or organizations that back or cooperate with ISIS have a finger in the abduction of the Turks to make sure that it costs Erdogan's presidency as the Iranian hostage crisis did Jimmy Carter. Who knows?," Merve Şebnem Oruç, wrote in a recent column for the Daily Sabah newspaper. The government, however, seems hopeful about a possible release through negotiations and has ruled out a military option. Officials from the foreign ministry stated on June 14 that they were expecting the release of the 80 Turkish hostages as soon as the ISIS in Mosul received an "internal order", adding that negotiations were taken place through various channels.
