Kurdish Peshmerga forces on Thursday claimed to be in full control of Iraq's oil province of Kirkuk after deploying to fill the vacuum left by Iraqi army units that fled the advance of militant fighters. The Peshmerga, a professional force that acts as the army of the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) based in Erbil, is virtually the only body on hand capable of confronting the fighters of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) who have already seized Mosul and are now threatening Baghdad. However, the priority of Kurdish leaders is to keep the jihadists out of Kurdish-populated areas, rather than to run to the rescue of Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki whom they see as the victim of a crisis largely of his own making. They warned the prime minister in the past that he was storing up trouble for himself with a violent crackdown on even moderate Sunnis in Anbar province. By the same token, the few thousand ISIS fighters have no motive to pick a fight with the Kurds when their main target is Al-Maliki's Shia-dominated regime. Contact between the Peshmerga and ISIS forces was limited to minor skirmishes in Kirkuk province on Wednesday before the jihadists retreated. Erbil and Baghdad have been at odds for months over a series of issues, ranging from the export of oil from the territory of the KRG to the future status of multi-ethnic Kirkuk. That makes it even less likely that the Kurds would be in a hurry to save Al-Maliki's skin. The spat has led to renewed threats from leaders such as Massoud Barzani, the KRG president, that Kurds have the option of opting for independence if their rights are not recognised. The Peshmerga have occasionally deployed outside the northeast provinces that form the autonomous zone and the Kurdish government has in the past offered to back up Baghdad's army in countering jihadist incursions. This time, however, a reported Kurdish offer to help defend Mosul appears to have been rebuffed, reflecting the chill between Baghdad and Erbil. The most recent bone of contention has been the issue of oil exports from Kurdistan. A new pipeline was recently opened that allows the direct shipment of crude from Kurdish fields to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The first two tanker loads shipped out of Ceyhan this month in defiance of Baghdad's insistence that all Iraqi oil sales should pass through its national oil agency. The consignments have so far failed to find a buyer, amid threats from Baghdad to take the dispute to the United Nations and reported pressure from the US State Department to stall any development that hints at a break-up of Iraq. Under the terms of Iraq's federal constitution, Erbil is supposed to receive 17 per cent of all Iraqi oil earnings to finance the Kurdish budget. However, the Al-Maliki government suspended payments earlier this year, forcing the KRG to fend for itself. The Kurds also complain that Baghdad has failed to pay any contribution towards the Peshmerga, even though the Kurdish force has guaranteed security in what has become the safest and most prosperous region of the country. The Peshmerga are now reported to have secured the Kirkuk oilfields, preventing their potential takeover by the jihadists. The Kurds regard the mixed city of Kirkuk as the putative capital of any future independent state. However, they accuse Al-Maliki of stalling on implementation of an agreement to resolve the status of the city once and for all. In view of the latest events, Erbil may be tempted to consider that possession is nine tenths of the law, although the leadership has displayed caution about making any unilateral moves beyond its insistence on the right to market its own oil. Even before the ISIS advance, there was a growing public sentiment in favour of outright independence, generated by frustration at the machinations of a dysfunctional Baghdad government. President Barzani last month accused Al-Maliki of leading Iraq towards totalitarianism. “The authorities in Baghdad want to control everything,” he told Reuters. “It is not acceptable to us. We want to be partners; we don't want to be subjects.” While Erbil has steadily fallen out with Baghdad, it has also grown closer to Turkey, as Ankara's cooperation in the pipeline deal illustrates. The relationship has flourished despite Turkey's fears that a move towards an independent Kurdistan might encourage its own much larger Kurdish minority. Turkey has embarked on a peace settlement with Abdullah Ocalan's Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), but the process has stalled amid PKK accusations that Ankara is backing ISIS fighters operating against Kurdish areas of Syria. These Kurdish regions are principally controlled by the PKK-allied Democratic Union Party (PYD). Its armed wing has succeeded in holding off the jihadists, rather as the Peshmerga are doing in northern Iraq. The leadership in Erbil, however, and in particular Barzani's Kurdistan Democratic Party, is hostile to PYD rule across the border in Syria, although both have reason to resist further ISIS encroachments. The PYD has declared autonomy in a number of Kurdish cantons and its activity has squeezed out other Kurdish groups with links to Erbil. Not for the first time in Kurdish history, different sections of the divided nation are at odds. The reality on the ground, however, is that Kurdish forces in both Iraq and Syria are among the few to serve as a bulwark against the Islamist advance. Seeing what they can do separately, what might they not achieve if they ever joined forces?
The writer has covered revolutions, wars, politics and diplomacy in the Middle East, Europe, Africa and North and South America for more than 40 years as a journalist.
