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Yemen: The Last Nail in Tehran's Coffin
Published in Albawaba on 29 - 03 - 2015

What does Iran want from Arab nations, or better yet, what does it want from Egypt and Saudi Arabia? The answer to this question will explain the mystery of what is happening on the Yemeni scene as a whole.
Tehran's attempts to negotiate the nuclear file with the U.S. started more than fourteen years ago. Iran has used all possible methods to achieve its goals. It facilitated the U.S. invasion of two Islamic countries, namely Afghanistan and Iraq, publicizing its involvement contrary to its usual strategy of discretion. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in a simple and shameless statement, declared to the media that "if it weren't for Iran, America wouldn't have been able to invade Afghanistan or Iraq."
At the time of the first American airstrike on Afghanistan, October 2001, Iran started to receive dozens of Al Qaida leaders on its land. The country prepared shelter and accommodation for the AQ leaders, keeping them handy for future use. The intention was using them to serve its strategic purposes in the nuclear negotiations with Washington. Iran was looking to hold both ends of the stick, cooperating with America on one hand and gaining Al Qaida's trust on the other; a strategy that the devil himself wouldn't be able to devise or even grasp.
Iran, to expand this policy, started aiming heavy blows at NATO and the American forces in Afghanistan, using the Taliban and other Russian mercenaries, simultaneously bargaining with Shiite blood, its Revolutionary Guard backing Al Qaeda to perform barbaric acts on the Shiite population of Iraq. The end game was quite clear: scaring off the Shiite and compelling them to seek refuge in Tehran which is exactly what happened. By doing this, Iran became the main player on the Iraqi field. This, in turn, is what caused the emergence of ISIS and other extremist groups, as a response to the Shiite control of power in Iraq, in and outside the government and all other state institutions.
Pushing to the edge, then retreating for negotiation through mediators became an Iranian habit for more than fourteen years, at the same time that Washington started to call for "war against terror". There were many battle fields, Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, but only one strategy. These countries all appeared on the triangle comprising the Iranian battle scene in the past. It did not occur to anyone that Iran would extend its strategy beyond these regions, especially towards Egypt and Saudi Arabia, using the same illegal methods that it had been successful in Kabul, Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut and Aden.
The goal of this new Iranian strategy was to draw these two major countries, with massive local and international influence, away from the important crises that the region was facing. These crises were meant to be overlooked, especially after the failure of the so-called "Arab Spring" which was an American materialization of the Zionist plan.
Forcing these two countries to retreat to deal with internal problems thus isolating them from the rest of the world, and dwarfing their role, would result in an amplification of the Iranian role. That has been the Iranian strategy of these past years.
Iran has striven to force Egypt into an open confrontation with Israel, by creating terrorist strongholds on the eastern borders. It has also inflamed the conflict between Palestinians and Israelis to the maximum, pushing for another Israeli war in which Egypt would've had to intervene. Cairo would then effectively and indefinitely be expelled from the region's circle of influence, leaving the ground for Iran for good. When the Iranian attempts failed, they turned to Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah to call on the Egyptian people and army to rise against their leadership and storm the Gaza borders to strike Israel. Iran also played games with the Gaza-based Hamas movement, in a rather childish manner, prompting Israel to sweep the Strip and compelling tens of thousands of Palestinians to enter Sinai due to the Israeli chase.
Iran also played a big game with Saudi Arabia, starting with the explosions at Al Khobar that were directed from the heart of Iran and marking the start of a terror wave in the country. It also harbored and sheltered Al Qaida leading cadres to conduct operations inside Saudi Arabia. Eventually, Iran provided support to the Yemeni Houthi rebels thus creating a very disturbing presence on the Southern borders, an expansion that was extended to the Strait of Bab Al Mandeb to strangle Egypt. I know that some of my brothers in the region will condemn my analysis.
Yet it is based on precise and accurate information. They will forget that they also previously condemned the link I had made between Al Qaeda and Iran, thinking that the two couldn't cooperate based on their irreconcilable religious differences. They still haven't grasped the fact that political parties are not religious sects, and that Iran is only seeking political and strategic gains. It will try, with all its might, to achieve these gains even if it means striking at the core of Egyptian and Saudi Arabia. Iran will do so under the assumption that both countries are obstacles on its road to become a member of the nuclear club, as is clear to all.
In conclusion, this severe confrontation with Egypt and Saudi Arabia and the use of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and possibly the Shiite in the Gulf, will never benefit Iran. On the contrary, it may deepen its crisis, and broaden the circle of confrontation. The near future may hold developments that Iran and its allies are not expecting.


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