Should the government be heeding the warning its foreign minister issued in Washington, asks Shaden Shehab "Fear the wrath of Egyptians," Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit warned the US administration during his recent visit to the US in response to plans to withhold $200 million of military aid to Egypt. While many Egyptians are undoubtedly angry at US policies in the region Abul-Gheit's warning, suggest many commentators, is one his own government would do well to heed. An estimated 40 per cent of Egyptians are now living below the poverty line, and they are increasingly disinclined to remain silent about their daily struggles to survive. Last week thousands of frustrated citizens took to the streets holding empty bottles above their heads in demonstrations that were dubbed, by some newspapers, as a "revolution of the thirsty". A shortage of potable water was the straw that broke the camel's back. The demonstrations started in Kafr Al-Sheikh and quickly spread to other governorates, including Marsa Matruh, Sinai, Gharbiya and Daqahliya. In Kafr Al-Sheikh water supplies have been erratic for months now, while in other areas water has been scarce for years. As soon as Kafr Al-Sheikh residents protested, other "thirsty" residents followed their example and took to the streets to express their anger. While the past two years has seen many demonstrations by political groups protesting political issues last week was the first time ordinary Egyptians have demonstrated for the basic necessities of life. "Although political groups such as Kifaya dared to challenge the ruling party in 2004 and thus kick-started a spate of political dissent among the professional classes, the masses have usually failed to mobilise," says political science professor Mustafa Kamel El-Sayed. Demonstrations by Kifaya against succession, the emergency law, constitutional amendments and election fraud had limited success, though they did encourage other groups, including judges, doctors, teachers, university professors and garbage collectors, to take action to defend their basic rights. In almost all cases the government has used the security forces to disperse protesters, often arresting those believed to be behind the protests. The tide of dissent took a new turn when thousands of workers began to stage sit-ins and strikes in the public sector, protesting against management reneging on pay agreements. Then Qalaat Al-Kabsh residents, many of whose homes were destroyed by fire, began a public campaign to publicise their plight and the failure of officials to re-house them as promised. And now people are taking to the streets to protest against the inability of the authorities to provide an adequate supply of water. Kifaya is attempting to capitalise on the new public mood, and has called on citizens to "stay home" and show "civil disobedience" on 23 July -- already a holiday -- demonstrating their solidarity by hanging the Egyptian flag from their balconies. El-Sayed says the extent of public protests in the last two years is unprecedented. "There have been protests in the past but they tended to focus on a single issue and lasted only for a short period," he said. Even the 1919 Revolution, he points out, was focussed on one issue, the British occupation. The 1954 March crisis was effectively a dispute within the Revolutionary Command Council, while the riots of 1977 were in response to price hikes. "In all these cases," says El-Sayed, "protests occurred around a single issue." "The recent protests [against water shortages] marks an important step in the political movement of Egypt... they signify that the barrier of fear no longer holds," says political analyst Fahmy Howeidy. It is a development, believes Howeidy, that has long been brewing. "The breakthrough is a result of an accumulation of anger... and of continuous protests by different segments of society." Ordinary citizens no longer feel that their livelihoods are secure. They face severe economic hardship, and are run over roughshod by the government, and must even protest to secure something as basic as water. The danger, says Howeidy, is that the public is steadily losing all hope that conditions will improve and that hopelessness is feeding a cycle of frustration that could easily spill over into anger. El-Sayed agrees. "Many Egyptians feel that they are backed into a corner with no hope of change," he says. "While protests multiply as result of the government's failure to meet basic demands the government's reaction is generally to take no action to get things back on track." Howeidy is concerned that "the government seems unable to listen to the alarm bells that are sounding everywhere and this failure could take the country down an unknown path." If the government continues to fail to meet the basic needs of vast tracts of Egypt's population, says El-Sayed, "protests will get bigger and bigger, leading to chaos and insecurity." A leading member of the National Democratic Party, who asked for his name to be withheld, insists there is nothing to worry about. "The government has plans to address the various problems and they will eventually be solved," he insists. "Demonstrations and political movement in the country is a healthy sign of democratisation and not of chaos or civil disobedience."
