Summer is here, a season in which rumblings over US aid to Egypt have become as predictable as the soaring temperatures. Al-Ahram Weekly examines the background, and likely outcome, of this year's dispute Another summer cloud On an official level, Egypt is shrugging off congressional moves to withhold a portion of US military aid to Egypt. Dina Ezzat explains why Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit is expected to arrive in Washington on 9 July for a two-day visit. His itinerary includes talks with his US counterpart, members of Congress and think-tanks. The agenda, as usual, will touch-base on a wide range of regional developments -- especially in Palestine -- and review the profile of bilateral relations. Abul- Gheit also plans to discuss one of the most sensitive issues in bilateral Egyptian-American ties; military and economic aid to Egypt. Egyptian officials say Abul-Gheit is going to Washington with a set of proposals that aim to reshape the style and format of the aid package that Egypt has received from the US, ever since President Anwar El-Sadat signed a peace deal with Israel. "This is not the first time that Egypt and the US have revisited the aid package. It happened before, in 1998, when [both countries] agreed on an accumulative reduction in economic aid to Egypt," said one official. Following that deal US economic aid to Egypt has fallen from $815 million to $415 million. The package of military aid has so far remained untouched. As part of the 1998 package, says the official, Cairo and Washington agreed to review the style -- though not the principle -- of US aid to Egypt in 10 years' time. "So by next year we should be working according to a new formula and that is what now needs to be discussed," he said. While Egyptian officials have not disclosed their ideas of what any new mechanism of aid should look like but they do say Abul-Gheit will be presenting his American interlocutors with "several options" in July. These options, they explain, have two objectives: to give Egypt more freedom in handling aid money, and to reduce intervention allowed to the American side. The proposals, officials stress, do not aim to increase the volume of aid, either economic or military, but will seek to maintain it at present levels. "Our basic position is that while US military and economic aid has been very beneficial for Egypt, it has also served US interests," said one Egyptian diplomat who asked for his name to be withheld. "This aid package is only one aspect of a multi- faceted relationship that is supposed to serve the interests of both Egypt and the US." It is this concept of mutual interests that the Egyptian delegation to the US is likely to foreground, particularly given the controversy stirred by recent moves to make $200 million of US military aid to Egypt conditional on Cairo undertaking domestic reforms. The House Appropriations Committee approval of the relevant provision in the annual foreign aid bill does not automatically mean a reduction in the total amount of US annual military aid to Egypt. Instead, it allows for a delay in delivering part of the package, pending the submission of a report by the US administration to Congress confirming that Cairo has taken steps to improve democratic practices and its respect of human rights. The provision makes the receipt of the withheld sum conditional on Egypt's inclusion of a stronger human rights component in its training of police officers, a better securing of its border with Gaza to prevent arms smuggling, and the issuing of a new law guaranteeing judicial independence and separating the budgets of the Ministry of Justice and the judiciary. The bill has a long way to go, before it becomes law. It needs to pass through the Senate, then be reviewed by a second congressional appropriation committee and voted on in both houses before being presented to the president for his signature. Given that the provision to withhold $200 million out of the $1.3 billion military aid package Egypt annually receives from Washington is part of a much larger bill, including a great many other items. It is likely that it will be signed by President Bush, though not before mid-October. And even then, the $200 million will not disappear. Once the US administration presents Congress with a report suggesting the Egyptian government has taken some steps, or is even considering moves to accommodate Congress's demands, the $200 million will be released. Which is, perhaps, one of the reasons why Egypt, at an official level, appears to be shrugging off the congressional threat. Cairo is aware that, given current regional developments, Washington is relying on Egypt to intervene favourably, particularly in Palestine: against such a backdrop the US administration is unlikely to miss an opportunity to demonstrate support for its regional ally. Indeed, Egyptian officials are well aware of the decreasing priority accorded to democratisation in Washington's Middle East policy. Egypt will refuse to accept any intervention on the part of the US in internal affairs: that at least is the message conveyed in statements released by Foreign Minister Abul-Gheit, and by Nabil Fahmi, Egypt's ambassador to Washington. The Egyptian establishment has always been reluctant to accommodate US criticism of its adherence to democratic values, or its respect of human rights. It is a policy that continues, as witnessed by the wave of criticism, penned by writers close to the regime, after President Bush called for the release of opposition leader Ayman Nour. "We are willing to talk and discuss things but we are not prepared to accept American dictates on internal affairs, especially when it comes to matters involving the execution of court orders," says Fahmi. Egyptian officials insist that the withholding of a portion of US military aid to Egypt, or the furore that has surrounded Nour, will not impact on cooperation, especially over developments in Palestine, Sudan, Iraq and Lebanon. As usual, they qualify the recent fuss as a summer cloud passing overhead. That said, it will not have escaped anyone's notice that President Hosni Mubarak has no plans to visit the US this summer. For the fourth year in a row, what was once a fixture in Mubarak's diary is not even pencilled in.
