The uncertainty of Pakistan's political future argues for action, writes Gamal Nkrumah Alame-duck president is bad news in any country. The most dangerous scenario is when the leader of a large, populous and strategically-located country, facing grave political crises, quacks while the country's political establishment focusses on who should succeed him. Pakistan, according to several distinguished South Asian pundits, is fast approaching such a stage. As portrayed by the Western media, Pakistan is virtually a byword for political instability, appalling bloodshed and Islamist militancy. Ironically, there is a consensus that all should be bending Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's ear to egg him on in his fight against Al-Qaeda, the Taliban and other perceived forces of international terrorism. The Islamic Republic of Pakistan is no self-proclaimed theocracy like Iran. However, Islam is the very raison d'étre of the country, even though secularist struggles for democratisation are gaining momentum. There is both ambiguity and calculation behind the Pakistani political establishment. It is against this backdrop that the Pakistani judiciary struck an unprecedented pre-emptive blow against the quasi-military regime in Islamabad. The decision of Pakistan's Supreme Court to reinstate Iftikhar Mohamed Chaudhry as the country's chief justice, four months after he was suspended by the president, General Musharraf, has far-reaching ripple effects that do not impact Pakistan alone. It is bound to have political ramifications throughout the region. This is a defining moment for Pakistan. Yes, something is afoot. Few, however, seriously consider that changes bigger than the Big Bang are at hand. "The reference has been set aside and the chief justice has been reinstated," Justice Khalil- ur-Rehman Ramday, head of the 13-member court proudly proclaimed on 20 July. Chaudhry, accused by Musharraf of corruption and ineptitude, was suspended on 9 March, and the Pakistani judiciary was determined to prove its independence from the executive. Opposition protesters were shown on television brandishing placards and chanting ,"Go, Musharraf, go". Chaudhry emerged as a symbol of resistance to Musharraf after refusing to relinquish his post in the face of pressure from the president and his intelligence chiefs. Everyone is watching for Musharraf's next political move. There are encouraging signs. Retired major-general, Rashid Qureshi, Musharraf's spokesman, announced: "The president has said the judgement of the Supreme Court will be honoured, respected, and adhered to." In much the same vein, the suave and sophisticated Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz concurred. He stressed that the government accepted the decision but added that it was, "not the time to claim victory or defeat". In other words, this was no time for either gloating or recrimination. Chaudry's re-instatement occurred in the wake of the storming of the Red Mosque. "The government of Pakistan showed utmost restraint while events were fast getting out of hand," Pakistan's Ambassador to Cairo Arif Ayub told Al-Ahram Weekly. "Despite government restraint, the militants took an adamant stance," he explained. "They set two ministries on fire -- housing and environment," he added. The country, it appears, has become ripe for anything. When Musharraf goes matters less than how he is replaced. What is important is for the democratic process to take its proper course. Next to the éclat of a Big Bang, the country might be heading for a long political gestation period. But that brings us to the heart of the matter in Pakistan. The story of Pakistan could have at least two unhappy endings. It could fall prey to a Taliban-like regime, a rather improbable scenario. Or, it could engender more political instability and a resultant hair- trigger face-off with its dynamic and mighty neighbour India. Is there a way to avoid an unhappy ending? Pakistan is not that easy to read. The key to ending Pakistan's woes lies with Musharraf. He is a Muhajir, his family originally hailed from India -- he is neither Punjabi or Sindhi, Baluchi or Kashmiri. However, he has a constituency where he has tended to find succour and supporters in his feuds with both the secular and religious opposition. "Religious parties had grave reservations about the storming of the Red Mosque. But, the secular parties were in favour of action against the militants," the ambassador assured. Hundreds of people were killed since 3 July, when the start of the Red Mosque siege in Islamabad triggered a violent backlash from militant Islamists. Musharraf pledged to crush the militant Islamists. He has deployed hundreds of extra troops in Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province. His government is also desperately seeking to revive a stalled peace accord with militants in North Waziristan. Underlying political tensions between Musharraf and his chief ally, the United States, is yet another complicating factor. Policymakers in Washington are currently debating the merits of military strikes against Al-Qaeda targets on Pakistani soil. Pakistani officials, however, strongly object to foreign intervention and warned that Pakistan would not tolerate any "indiscriminate action". A Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokeswoman was quoted this week as saying that Islamabad rejected foreign interference. "Whatever counter- terrorism action is to be taken inside Pakistan, it will be taken by our own security forces." It is in this context that the 20 July verdict is widely considered an unprecedented ruling. Musharraf faces possibly the biggest challenge to his political preeminence since he usurped power in a coup d'etat in 1999. The ruling clearly complicates his career ambitions -- Musharraf's bid to win a new five-year presidential term this autumn. Nobody knows what scenario is likelier, for the Pakistani political system is of almost infinite complexity. Predicting how much hotter the political climate in the country will become is a futile exercise. What is clear is that Chaudhry's reinstatement is pregnant with symbolism and is bound to have serious political ramifications. "The ball is now in the Pakistani president's court", Ambassador Ayub said. This uncertainty is central to the difficulty of tackling Pakistan's political predicament. When Musharraf tried to fire Chaudhry last March, the move sparked violent protests led by angry lawyers which fast metamorphosed into an impassioned nationwide pro-democracy campaign. Hundreds of thousands poured onto the streets of Pakistani cities. Angry demonstrators showered rose petals on Chaudhry's motorcade and proclaimed anti-military slogans. Meanwhile, Musharraf's support plummeted in May following political violence at a rally in Karachi, Pakistan's chief port and major metropolis, which left 40 people dead. The vital and immediate political consequence is that the Supreme Court ruling has jeopardised Musharraf's plan for a fresh five-year term. A few days ago, he declared he would seek re-election under the current parliament, dominated by his hangers-on. His ambitions are expected to be challenged by the Supreme Court -- which is now headed by a hugely popular judge who is seen as the personification of Pakistan's democratic credentials. Exiled opposition leader Benazir Bhutto has already indicated her intention to return in September and with her Pakistan People's Party to challenge Musharraf's plan for a new term. Bhutto described the chief justice's reinstatement as one of the, "most remarkable judgments in Pakistan's history". She added that the legal protest had become a "struggle against dictatorship".
