Somali protagonists raise the stakes over the country's political future, writes Gamal Nkrumah Irony and innuendo are fast undoing Somalia's nascent attempts at establishing peace and prosperity. Prospects for lasting "peace" continues to unravel. Senseless carnage goes on unabated. The assassination on 19 July of a veteran tribal leader set the cat loose among the pigeons. A fog of suspicion now clouds tribal politics -- a dangerous precedent where public institutions are absent. Organised crime is muscling in. The assassination of Maalim Haroon Youssef -- a tribal leader of the Hawiye -- the largest Somali tribe and the predominant tribe in the Somali capital Mogadishu, spells disaster for Somali reconciliation and the peace process. Haroun's assassination has set the clock back. He was shot twice in the head by unknown hit-men outside his home in Mogadishu. He played a pivotal role in organising the Transitional Federal Government (TFG)-sponsored Somali reconciliation conference in July. The clan-based conference has had a chequered history ever since. It has been interrupted several times because of internicine fighting only to resume a few days later. It has been criticised for being orchestrated by tribal and clan leaders. "This is a black day for the supporters of peace," Haji Abdi Iman, a Hawiye tribal leader, was reported as saying soon after the assassination of Haroun was made public. Recriminations are in store. The fear now is of an upsurge in tribal and clan warfare. Foreign powers, African and Western, are interfering in the domestic affairs of Somalia. The country's African neighbours are especially concerned about political instability here. Eritrea is now being accused by Ethiopia, the Ethiopian and Western-backed TFG of Somalia, and the United States of providing political succour to the Council of Islamic Courts (CICs) -- a militant Islamist movement which controlled much of Somalia until Ethiopian forces overran the territory and recaptured the capital. The TFG is widely regarded as a bulwark against militant Islam in Somalia by Ethiopia and Western powers. This simplistic formula makes for clumsy repercussions. Hundreds of Somali lives have been claimed in recent months, and scores of civilians have been killed in the crossfire between supporters of the CICs and the TFG. The United Nations has warned of a humanitarian catastrophe. A UN official recently painted a bleak picture of the Somali capital. "I do not think you can say this is a recovering city. It is a fairly depressing prospect," UN emergency aid official John Holms warned when he fled the city in May. The UN Security Council Resolution 1744 passed in February acknowledged that the humanitarian crisis in Somalia is untenable. An estimated 71 per cent of the Somali population is malnourished. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) warned that Somalia is experiencing its worst humanitarian crisis in decades. OCHA stated that the situation is likely to deteriorate further. What does the future hold for Somalia? The country's well-being is vital for the security of the Horn of Africa. Somalia's neighbours fully understand that principle Somalia is a country ravaged, leaving it to organised criminals to make the law. The Somalis are people that traditionally play by the rule of tribal laws. The CICs, however, want to substitute tribal laws with Islamic sharia law. A substantial percentage of the Somali population want to institute sharia, but the TFG is overwhelmingly against it. Indeed, the peace and reconciliation conference initiated by the TFG is regarded as propping up tribal and clan interests. Somali President Abdallah Youssef hails from the Darod tribe of northern Somalia, while Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi is from the Hawiye, the tribal grouping most loyal to the CICs. Indeed, the CICs are often criticised by detractors as a Hawiye movement masquerading as a politico-religious organisation. In light of the reassertion of the powers of the tribal leaders, the ambitious attempt to create a harmonised Somali political entity is flawed and bound to fail. Many Somali tribal leaders have a stake in the status quo. Private remittances from Somalis abroad have enriched certain parts of the country, especially the relatively quiet northern regions. The hegemony of the Ethiopian troops in Somalia , propping up the TFG, inevitably bred resentment among the population of the war-torn nation. The Somali crisis has always been symptomatic of wider challenges afflicting the Horn of Africa, not least the Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict and the question of ethnic Somalis in Djibouti, Kenya and especially Ethiopia. The discovery of vast energy resources has triggered tensions in the region. Oil exploration in the Somali- inhabited Ogaden province of western Ethiopia, for instance, has led to the resurgence of secessionist agitation in the sprawling region. The Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), a secessionist movement, has increased its activities in recent months. Chinese oil-workers were abducted and killed recently. The prospect of commercial quantities of oil has triggered the escalation of violence in the Horn of Africa. Eritrea is suspected of militarily assisting separatist forces in Ethiopia, including the ONLF. Meanwhile, the ONLF is in turn suspected of having military links with the CICs. Eritrea supports both groups. The northern Somali oil-rich autonomous region of Maakhir declared its independence on 1 July 2007. Like neighbouring Puntland -- the stronghold of President Youssef -- it is an economically thriving region with standards of living much higher than the average for Somalia as a whole -- per capita income is $1,600 in Puntland, compared with $600 in the rest of Somalia. Remittances from overseas Somalis are also helping to rebuild the northern autonomous regions of Puntland and Maakhir. Brisk trade with Gulf Arab countries has contributed to rapid economic growth in the northern parts of the country. Human Rights Watch, the New York- based group, recently released a report accusing the TFG and Ethiopian troops of committing gross human rights violations in Somalia, including the deliberate shelling of hospitals and the widespread use of rape as an instrument of "fighting terrorism". Ethiopian troops are accused of dropping white phosphorous bombs on civilian targets, a charge hotly disputed by Ethiopian officials. "Those are unfounded reports," protested Bereket Simon, advisor to Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. "We have not killed any civilians," he said. In spite of the bleak picture, there are prospects for peace. To do this will need a top- knotch negotiating team, and not agents provocateurs. This may prove vital in saving lives. Posterity will blame those who fail to seize the opportunity.
