Gamal Nkrumah compares and contrasts the Sudanese and Somali peace processes Ban's balancing act The UN secretary-general is determined to find a way out of Darfur's awkward predicament, writes Gamal Nkrumah History tugs at consciences, and no more so than in Somalia. The future is accused of failure, and the past is given its head. A traumatic military history, a barbarous civil war, and almost two decades of lawlessness and political anarchy have made, and kept, Somalis extremely ambivalent about foreign interference in their country's domestic affairs. Yet it appears that "proxy wars" are being fought in Somalia. Carnage continues unabated on Somali soil. The Eritreans and the Ethiopians, long- standing enemies, are backing opposing forces in Somalia. Eritrea is no match for Ethiopia, a regional power with nearly 20 times as many people as Eritrea's four million inhabitants. The Ethiopians are backing the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) legitimised by the international community -- the United Nations and the African Union. The Eritreans, on the other hand, support all those opposed to the TFG and to the presence of Ethiopian troops on Somali soil. Each side in the battle of wills over Somalia wants to give the impression it can ride out a long war. The chance of an early peace still looks remote. The Council of Islamic Courts (CICs) that controlled much of central and southern Somalia, including the capital Mogadishu, until being forcibly ousted by Ethiopian forces last December, has since been displaying an astonishing propensity in wrong-footing the Horn of Africa's most powerful army -- that of Ethiopia. This is a classic case of David and Goliath: a seemingly feebler contender sending its more powerful opponent sprawling. In so fraught an atmosphere, the struggle of the CICs against the Ethiopian military presence burnishes its image as the champion of ordinary Somalis against the mighty Ethiopian army and the Western powers who back Addis Ababa. Indeed, the deployment of Ethiopian troops in Somalia was bitterly controversial, with many Somalis vehemently opposed to the presence of the Ethiopian military in their country. Not surprisingly, every move of Somalia's wily CICs is popularly seen as uncannily well-rehearsed, with Somali opposition groups focussing more on the purely military angle of the occupation than on the refugees and humanitarian catastrophe currently engulfing the country. It is against this backdrop that the interference of the United States is seen as a grave mistake, and that another debacle similar to Iraq and Afghanistan is in the making. This week, the US threatened to designate Eritrea as a state sponsoring terrorism. The officially-stated reason for the demonisation of Eritrea is that it played host to CICs leaders who are considered terrorists by the Bush administration. Any such move by the US amounts to upping the ante. US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer left the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa for a stopover in the tiny state of Djibouti where she met representatives of the TFG. Somali Prime Minister Gedi was also in Djibouti for talks with moderate members of the CICs after which he met Frazer to share intelligence. Djibouti is the headquarters of the biggest US anti- terrorism military base in all of Africa. Indeed, this strategically-located tiny Horn of Africa nation also plays host thousands of Western troops at one of France's biggest military bases in Africa. Meanwhile many of the more militant CICs leaders were assembled in the Eritrean capital Asmara for talks on the political future of Somalia, or to be more precise on the means for the ouster of the TFG. Earlier, in Ethiopia, Frazer threatened in protest to blacklist Eritrea as a state sponsoring terrorism. Bush administration officials were especially incensed that CIC leader Hassan Dhaher Aweis was among those who attended the Asmara meeting. Enraged Eritrean officials retorted that the US was trying to cover up its dubious covert policies in Somalia and the rest of the Horn of Africa under the guise of fighting terrorism. The Eritreans insisted that they have not given sanctuary to terrorists. The Eritrean Ministry of Information website promptly published a 35-point condemnation of US foreign policy. Eritrea stressed that 300 delegates from different Somali political groupings, including the CICs, participated at the Somali peace conference in Asmara, the Eritrean capital. Moreover, the Eritreans pointed out that there were many international observers at the conference including representatives of the European Union, the Arab League and the United Nations. In retaliation, the Bush administration ordered the closure of Eritrea's consulate in California -- a severe blow to cash-strapped Eritrea. The impoverished Horn of Africa nation was in the process of collecting a two per cent income tax from the sizeable Eritrean immigrant population in the US, many of whom reside in California. Interestingly, a UN report was issued last month condemning Eritrean "interference" in domestic Somali affairs, seemingly ignoring the Ethiopian occupation of the country. The report accused Eritrea of shipping arms, including surface-to-air missiles, to the CIC militias popularly called Shabab (Youth). According to the UN report a chartered Boeing 707 cargo plane carried the weapons from Eritrea to Somalia. Eritrean officials were outraged. "The intention of the report is to depict [the Somali crisis] as a proxy war between Eritrea and Ethiopia," warned Eritrean Information Minister Ali Abdu. Ethiopia and Eritrea might have vested interests in Somalia, but the sad truth is that when it comes to the crunch few countries have much time for either of them, and that is true of the US, too.
