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Waiting for the worst
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 13 - 09 - 2007

Gamal Nkrumah compares and contrasts the Sudanese and Somali peace processes
Waiting for the worst
US puppeteering notwithstanding, Somalia's neighbours are increasingly drawn into its political morass
Here gestures can have powerful effects, and no more so than in Darfur. In the torpor of the afternoon, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon visited the refugee camp in Darfur. He was appalled by the deplorable humanitarian conditions there. Even by his own globe-trotting standards, Ban has clocked up an immense number of air miles. Yet, Ban's diplomatic offensive to save Darfur is essentially an exercise in damage control.
Ever the optimist, Ban spoke of the Darfur peace process as a "credible process" and called for a "strong endorsement" by the Sudanese protagonists of his peace plans. On the last leg of his African tour in Libya, Ban urged both the Sudanese authorities and the armed Darfur opposition groups "to declare their serious commitment to achieve a political solution to the Darfur crisis; to create a security environment in Darfur conducive to negotiations; to participate in and commit to the outcome of the negotiations effort; and to cease all hostilities immediately".
In Sirte, Libya, where he held a half hour meeting with the Libyan leader Moamar Gaddafi, Ban stressed the importance of a collective regional effort to resolve the Darfur dead-end. He recommended that Chad, Libya, Egypt and Eritrea be more actively engaged in the Darfur peace process and "work on a roadmap for peace in Darfur".
Ban said that the UN "will continue to work in close coordination with the countries of the region to ensure that the concerns of civil society, representatives of internally-displaced persons, women's groups and tribal leaders are channelled into the negotiation process".
Darfur peace talks are scheduled to be held in the Libyan capital Tripoli on 27 October. However, some influential Darfur opposition figures have rejected Ban's proposals and have stated that they are boycotting the Tripoli meeting.
Chief among these are Abdel-Wahid Mohamed Nur, the leader of the largest faction of the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) which has persistently refused to participate in the Darfur peace process unless its demands are met. "We will not participate in the Tripoli meetings unless our people are guaranteed peace and security," Nur told Al-Ahram Weekly.
Nur said that he will only negotiate with the government when his people are protected by international peacekeepers. The UN secretary-general, however, called on Nur not to impose unreasonable preconditions. Ban urged Nur to "look at reality".
The UN secretary-general likewise urged the Sudanese authorities to "cooperate more fully to nurture this very fragile process" and "exercise maximum restraint". It was a comment that made some of his Sudanese hosts wince.
Unperturbed, Ban was loath to give the impression that Darfur's displaced people lie abandoned by the international community in forlorn refugee camps in faraway Sudanese backwaters.
The steep terrain and current rains in Darfur have discouraged the regular dispatch of humanitarian relief assistance to the war-torn Sudanese westernmost province. However, the rains have now subsided and the threat of flooding has waned. It will be easier in the weeks ahead to send sorely-needed supplies to the hungry and malnourished displaced people of Darfur.
There is an enormous amount of mistrust between the armed opposition groups of Darfur, on the one hand, and the Sudanese authorities and their supporters in the war-battered province on the other. "We are urging all sides to create conditions for peace, a cessation of hostilities or a reduction in violence," said Jan Eliasson, the UN chief envoy to Sudan. His African Union counterpart Salim Ahmed Salim concurred. "A measure of goodwill is a prerequisite for peace," Salim said.
Then, of course, there is the question of economics and foreign trade. China is the biggest investor in Sudan and imports some two-thirds of Sudan's oil exports. However, Ambassador Liu Guijin, China's chief envoy on Darfur, angrily dismissed Western allegations that the Chinese are looting African oil wealth and instigating violence in Darfur by providing weapons and ammunition to the Sudanese armed forces as "groundless and ridiculous".
Liu explained that the US imports 33 per cent of Africa's oil and Europe imports 36 per cent of the continent's oil. "If 8.7 per cent symbolises looting of resources, I don't know what words you use to describe the countries that received 33 per cent and 36 per cent," Liu asked rhetorically.


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