The bloody siege at Nahr Al-Bared is over but is probably not Lebanon's last such battle, Lucy Fielder reports The Lebanese army has prevailed over Fatah Al-Islam militants hiding in the northern Nahr Al-Bared refugee camp after a siege that dragged on for more than three months. But Lebanese have yet to see whether the worst internal fighting since the civil war is the final or opening chapter in the battle with Al-Qaeda-inspired Sunni Islamic militants. And the 30,000-40,000 Palestinian refugees who fled Nahr Al-Bared must wait to see whether a plan improving their status in Lebanon materialises in the settling dust of their pulverised homes. The army took over the camp on 2 August after a battle that cost the lives of more than 160 soldiers and showed it to be poorly equipped and ill-prepared. This highlights Lebanon's continued fragility, following a string of assassinations and Israel's bombardment of the south last year. At least 42 civilians were killed along with 222 militants, including their leader Shaker Al-Abssi. More bodies are believed to lie beneath the ruins. Fatah Al-Islam was initially dismissed as a "rag-tag" militia of a few hundred, but proved larger and better equipped than expected. Hiding out in sophisticated underground bunkers built by Yasser Arafat in the 1980s, the Sunni militants held their ground, possibly with local support. Army Commander-in-Chief Michel Suleiman, who has described Fatah Al-Islam as a branch of Al-Qaeda, said in an official address the sacrifices "were much less than the price the nation would have paid had the hand of terror remained loose and continued its meddling". He told the Lebanese daily As-Safir "Iraq-style" violence could have ensued. The question of who funded and supplied Fatah Al-Islam -- a Salafi group made up of Lebanese, Saudis and other Arabs as well as some Palestinians -- is likely to remain a subject of fierce debate. The US- and Saudi-backed governing 14 March movement accused archenemy Syria of backing the militants, who split off from Syrian-backed Fatah Al-Intifada in November. Fatah Al-Islam and Syria deny this, and government critics have accused powerful Sunni leader Saad Al-Hariri of backing the group to court hardline Islamist support to counterbalance Hizbullah's Shia guerrillas. Despite the huge losses, Lebanese media and politicians celebrated the victory with a festive air, queuing up to compliment the army. Palestinian Fatah officials, who have stood on the side of the army and state, congratulated Suleiman. Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora gave a televised address saluting the "joint Lebanese-Palestinian war against the terrorists". "Lebanon is bound to the Palestinian cause and committed to working alongside its Arab brothers to return you to your homelands with dignity." The state was committed to rebuilding the camp, he added. But Ahmed Moussalli, an expert on political Islam at the American University of Beirut, said Lebanon's leaders might see Nahr Al-Bared as a model for dealing with the other 11 official Palestinian refugee camps. "I have my real doubts about their interest and ability to rebuild the camp," he said. The Palestinian "security islands", policed by militants and off-limits to the army, have long been flashpoints, and it was widely recognised before the 15-week Nahr Al-Bared siege that their status had to change. The roughly 400,000 Palestinians in Lebanon are denied the right to own property outside the camps or to work in more than 70 professions, restricting most of them to manual labour. Prejudice against the refugees is rife, partly because of fears Lebanon's fragile sectarian balance would be tipped if the mainly Sunni Palestinians were absorbed. Many Lebanese view the heavily armed Palestinian presence in south Lebanon as the spark that ignited civil war in 1975. Moussalli was among analysts who feared the aim behind Nahr Al-Bared's destruction was to pave the way towards resettling the Palestinians in Lebanon, in accordance with Israel's wishes, to prevent them from returning to their homeland and creating what it sees as a "demographic threat". "I hope I'm wrong but I think we'll see a major eruption in other camps in the next few months," he said. Lebanon's largest camp, Ain Al-Hilweh, was the likely focus and home to militant groups Osbet Al-Ansar and the smaller Jund Al-Sham. Islamist militants killed two soldiers at the camp, near the southern city of Sidon, in early June. UN Security Council Resolution 1559, passed in September 2004, called for all militias in Lebanon to be disarmed, meaning the Palestinian groups and Hizbullah. Last year, a dialogue among Lebanese political leaders concluded with a rare agreement, sanctioned by the main Palestinian factions, on the need to regulate weapons inside the camps and ban them from outside. The battle for Nahr Al-Bared threw the presence of militants, especially in Sunni areas of the north, into sharp relief. A minority of northerners appear to have sympathy with Al-Qaeda aims, although the history of such groups in Lebanon has been largely peaceful. "We are only seeing the first phase, and we may see a worse one coming up." Moussalli said. Experts warn that the UNIFIL force in the south remains a potential militant target. It has sustained two attacks that killed six peacekeepers since it expanded following last summer's war between Israel and Hizbullah. Hizbullah denied involvement in the attacks and most observers agree they were the work of an Al-Qaeda-type group.
