Lebanon's Nahr Al-Bared stand-off between the army and Fatah Al-Islam militants has entered its third week, with no solution in sight. Lucy Fielder reports The Lebanese army stepped up attacks on the Nahr Al-Bared Palestinian refugee camp north of Tripoli at the weekend after a period of relative calm, massing tanks around the camp and shelling it heavily in what it called "the beginning of the end". But Fatah Al-Islam, a band of Al-Qaeda-inspired radical Sunni Muslim militants believed to number no more than 250-300 men, appeared well dug in, although cornered. By mid-week, fighting had slackened. On Sunday, clashes spread to the flashpoint Ain Al-Helwa camp near the southern city of Sidon after two gunmen from the tiny Islamist Jund Al-Sham militia in the camp shot two soldiers dead on Monday. This clash heightened speculation that the fighting could spread like wildfire across Lebanon's 12 crowded, poverty-stricken Palestinian camps, where Palestinian anger at civilian casualties is mounting. Fears are growing about the estimated 5,000 to 8,000 Palestinian civilians trapped inside with scant food, water and medicine, as well as concern for the welfare of about 27,000 who fled. UNRWA, the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees, launched an emergency appeal for $12.7 million to help the displaced. Amnesty International also urged both sides to protect civilians. They may have to endure a lengthy siege. The army does not enter Palestinian camps under an informal understanding that the latter will police themselves. Analysts say Lebanon's poorly equipped and trained army lacks intelligence on Fatah Al-Islam and is essentially starving them out in the hope they will surrender members who attacked Lebanese soldiers three weeks ago at the start of the crisis. Timor Goksel, a Beirut-based security analyst and former spokesman for the southern UNIFIL force, said most military action appeared to be "probing", drawing fire to locate the militants and identify their defences. "Apart from the lack of equipment and proper weaponry for this kind of warfare, which is extremely difficult and a very slow process, they are severely hampered by their lack of communications equipment," he said. Possessing few radios, if any, the army was trying to direct the battle with cellular phones, he said. Soldiers also lacked body armour and armoured vehicles. "They are also severely restrained by the need not to inflict high civilian casualties and not to be seen as fighting the whole Palestinian community in Lebanon," he added. About 114 people, including 46 soldiers, have been killed in the fighting. Dead civilians number at least 20, but with access to the camp near to impossible, the exact toll is unknown. The army's tactic was to corner Fatah Al-Islam into isolated pockets, Goksel said. Highly publicised deliveries of US supplies to the army were overdue consignments of ammunition, he said, describing the timing as unavoidable but "not a very bright public relations move". "I haven't seen any new weapons except the helicopters provided by the United Arab Emirates, and those contained no weapons. If they were used during the fighting, as media reports claim, that is the only significant addition to the Lebanese arsenal," he said. Fatah Al-Islam appeared entrenched in the warren-like streets of the camp and were able to draw on 250-300 committed fighters, though the number fighting on any given day could fluctuate depending on local support. "Usually when you are well dug in, you get hit but you don't take too many casualties," Goksel explained. Analysts do not class Fatah Al-Islam as a Palestinian group; although some members are Palestinian, most appear to be Lebanese, Saudi, Syrian and other Arabs. The government accuses Syria of backing the group, which split from Syrian-backed Fatah Al-Islam in November. Damascus, they say, aims to sow chaos in Lebanon, which it dominated militarily and politically until 2005, when many Lebanese blamed it for Rafik Al-Hariri's assassination. Some analysts believe that despite Syrian help with crossing into Lebanon and getting established, as well as allowing militants to cross from Lebanon into Iraq and back, Damascus no longer pulls Fatah Al-Islam's puppet strings. Some observers say Saudi Arabia and Saad Al-Hariri, head of the anti-Syrian parliamentary majority, once funded Al-Qaeda-inspired groups to bolster Al-Hariri's Sunni support and counter unease at his pro-Western policies. Building an armed Sunni force to counter Shia Hizbullah, or at least increase bargaining power with the group, was another motive. However, over the past few months, most believe the groups were ditched as part of Saudi- Iranian efforts to calm Sunni-Shia tensions in the region. Fighting broke out three weeks ago when the Internal Security Forces raided the Tripoli flat of alleged bank robbers believed to have links to Fatah Al-Islam. In retaliation, the militants based in Nahr Al-Bared attacked army positions around the camp, killing a number of soldiers who were guarding the camp and had apparently received no warning of the Tripoli operation. Ain Al-Helwa's stand-off was resolved by an agreement that the Palestinian factions in the camp would establish a joint security force to impose control. "I think that agreement will serve as a blueprint for the other camps, specifically Nahr Al-Bared," said Hilal Khashan, professor of political science at the American University of Beirut. "But these Islamist groups such as Jund Al-Sham and Fatah Al-Islam are very small, I don't think what happened in Nahr Al-Bared will become a pattern in the other camps." Goksel said Jund Al-Sham appeared to have come under pressure from the army and other Palestinian factions to fall into line lest the myriad of armed factions in Ain Al-Helwa lose their autonomy. "I don't think we'll see the kind of conflict there that we're seeing in Nahr Al-Bared." He also saw an uprising across the camps as unlikely, although this depended on whether civilian casualties escalated and if solidarity from other Palestinians or Lebanese Sunnis entered the equation and this could not be ruled out. Some analysts believe that motives of solidarity could be driving the spate of bombings in and around Beirut, although given Lebanon's precarious security and high levels of foreign interference, few will speculate with much certainty. On Monday night, a bomb blew up an empty bus in eastern Beirut, injuring seven passers-by. Similar to the previous three attacks over as many weeks, the bomb did not appear timed or placed to inflict large casualties, but hinted at a capacity for far greater violence. It was the second bombing to coincide with a ministers' meeting to discuss the Nahr Al-Bared crisis. The government claims Syria is trying to thwart the international tribunal into Al-Hariri's killing and sow instability.
