Fatah Al-Islam's women and children have at last left Nahr Al-Bared camp, heralding the final battle which could last days or weeks, Lucy Fielder reports After waiting out more than three months of fierce bombardment of the besieged Nahr Al-Bared refugee camp in northern Lebanon, the families of Fatah Al-Islam members were evacuated by the army this week. Many took this as a sign the end of the battle, prolonged well beyond expectations, was nigh. More than 60 family members, including many women in niqab and small children, were guided and carried out by soldiers, as shown in much publicised footage. The Sunni militant group holed up inside the Palestinian camp has requested that an estimated 40 injured also be evacuated, but at the time of going to press this was subject to negotiations mediated by Palestinian sheikhs. Former General Amin Hteit expected a fierce battle after the evacuation of the families had "liberated" both the militants and soldiers. "The evacuation of the families and children means the army is free to act and the militants have dropped the idea of surrender, deciding to fight to the bitter end," he said. Lebanon's army expects one of two actions from its adversaries. The 65 militants could stay put and defend the third of the camp they still occupy, "If that decision is taken, the strong fortifications in the camp -- shelters and trenches -- mean the army won't prevail in a day or two despite what some say. That could mean another two or weeks of fighting," Hteit said. Fatah Al-Islam has survived the destruction of Nahr Al-Bared, against expectations of a short battle, by sheltering in deep underground shelters built by Yasser Arafat during the 1980s in the Civil War. According to a security source, the families left in good health -- physically at least -- because of the condition of the bunkers. "They're equipped with electricity and running water," the source said. "They were designed to withstand Israeli bombing, let alone Lebanese." Hteit said a more feared path the Islamists might take would be a suicide attack to breach army defences, which would allow a contingent to break free from the camp and set up elsewhere, as well as add to the already high military death toll. Fierce bombardment continued this week and smoke spiralled from the mounds of pulverised concrete and rubble that housed 40,000 people three months ago. The fighting broke out on 20 May with a police raid on a flat rented by suspected bank robbers with alleged links to Fatah Al-Islam. The Al-Qaeda-inspired militants, who had been based in Nahr Al-Bared since splitting from a Syrian-backed group in November, overran an army checkpoint at its outskirts to exact bloody revenge on unsuspecting soldiers. Lebanon has suffered major electricity rationing over the past week after Al-Qaeda-inspired militants fired rockets on the Deir Amar power station. As well as some Palestinians, the group also comprises Lebanese, Saudi Arabians and other nationalities. At least 148 soldiers have been killed in the battle, and an unknown number of militants and civilians lie dead in the inaccessible ruins. Neither the army source nor Hteit expected much from negotiations, unless they lead to surrender. "Negotiations were fine when the toll was still small," said Hteit. "Now we have more than 700 injured, as well as the martyrs." Many in Lebanon's opposition, which has squared off with the US-backed government for the past year over power sharing, accuse the authorities of dragging the army into a battle to weaken it. Hteit subscribes to that view and accuses the United States of undermining the army for political ends. "The main intention of this battle was striking at the army and finishing off its unity," he said. David Welch, the US under-secretary of State for Near East Affairs, asked the army to take a stand in the event there were two governments following flashpoint presidential elections due in September. But according to Hteit, the army chief said, "I'll be neutral in the event of a national split, because I can't be with one side against the other." A week after that conversation, Nahr Al-Bared started, "in response to the army head's neutrality," Hteit said. Weakening the army would necessitate the deployment of international forces under Chapter VII of the UN charter, to secure Israel's northern border, prevent arms reaching Hizbullah via Syria, and ultimately to emasculate the Shia guerrilla group's resistance, Hteit added. Riding high on a wave of popular support for the army's Nahr Al-Bared campaign, and at the head of what is considered Lebanon's only unifying institution, Commander-in-Chief Michel Suleiman is considered a popular candidate for the Maronite Christian presidency. But that would require a constitutional amendment, which the ruling 14 March movement has rejected. Leading anti-Syrian figures have sniped at the commander and demanded he stay out of politics, angered by a statement he made a few weeks ago saying that Fatah Al-Islam was linked to Al-Qaeda, and not Syrian intelligence as the movement alleges. Nonetheless, among several possibilities in the coming months, few of them appealing, is that pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud may hand power to Suleiman to form a transitional military government to oversee elections, in the increasingly likely event that parliamentarians cannot agree on a candidate. Hundreds of Nahr Al-Bared refugees demonstrated on 27 August at their temporary home in the neighbouring Bedawi camp, demanding they be allowed to return to the camp as soon as the fighting is finished and "live on the rubble of our homes", according to some banners. Other signs called for land next to Nahr Al-Bared to be rented to house them temporarily, as promised by United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA). "They have been suffering for more than three months. Their living conditions are sub- standard. They want an end to their misery," said Hilal Khashan, political science professor at the American University of Beirut. Although the fighting has not spread to other camps, many Palestinians are angry and fearful as a result of the destruction of one of the 12 refugee camps. "The problem will be trying to house the refugees before winter," Khashan said. "UNRWA has been trying to rent a huge space in the north to build temporary housing, the camp has been so devastated." Hteit said there was even a plan to give the Palestinians Lebanese nationality to undermine their right of return in accordance with Israel's wishes. "I believe the government of Fouad Al-Siniora will prevent rebuilding Nahr Al-Bared or making funds available for it. The Lebanese people will be asked to host the Palestinians to ease the way for nationalisation. The plan has become clear," he said. Khashan, himself a Palestinian, judged that unlikely, given the lack of welcome extended to Palestinians in Lebanon. Even the Sunnis, viewed as having most to gain from absorption of their co-religionists, would not welcome such a step, as it would increase demands on their share of the sectarian "pie", he said. "The Lebanese are united on one thing only, their hatred of Palestinians."
