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No smoking gun
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 06 - 12 - 2007

The findings of a US intelligence report saying Tehran halted its nuclear weapons programme in 2003 poses a challenge to Washington's hawks, reports Rasha Saad
Iran has every reason to rejoice. After years of Tehran struggling to convince the United States that its nuclear programme is purely for peaceful purposes -- not an undercover nuclear weapons programme as Washington insists -- a new US intelligence review has concluded that Iran halted efforts to develop nuclear weapons in 2003.
Iran welcomed the report, published Monday, as vindication of its longstanding claim. "It's natural that we welcome it when those countries who in the past have [had] questions about this case... now amend their views realistically," Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told state radio. "The nature of Iran's peaceful nuclear activities is becoming clear to the world," Mottaki added.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief, Mohamed El-Baradei, who has been frequently accused by US officials of taking a mild stance against the Iranians, has also reason to celebrate. El-Baradei maintained Tuesday that the US report is consistent with the UN atomic watchdog's own findings.
"Although Iran still needs to clarify some important aspects of its past and present nuclear activities, the agency has no concrete evidence of an ongoing nuclear weapons programme or undeclared nuclear facilities in Iran," El-Baradei said in a statement.
Analysts said the report might undermine Washington's drive to persuade other world powers to agree to impose additional UN sanctions on the Islamic Republic. Earlier, according to reports, US Democrats called for a major policy rethink in the light of the report.
The US administration and its European allies are taking a defiant stance. Britain, whose position on Iran is closely aligned with Washington's, said it would continue to push for increased international pressure, despite the report.
"We think the report's conclusions justify the actions already taken by the international community to both show the extent of, and try to restrict, Iran's nuclear programme, and to increase pressure on the regime to stop its [uranium] enrichment and reprocessing activities," a spokesman for Prime Minister Gordon Brown said.
"It confirms we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons [and] shows that the sanctions programme and international pressure were having an effect in that they [Iran] seem to have abandoned the weaponisation element," he added.
France took an even more strident stance. "It appears that Iran is not respecting its international obligations," a French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said. "We must keep up the pressure on Iran... We will continue to work on the introduction of restrictive measures in the framework of the United Nations," she added.
Close US ally Israel was unimpressed by the report, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert called for the US-backed campaign to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions to press ahead regardless. "It is vital to pursue efforts to prevent Iran from developing a capability like this, and we will continue doing so along with our friends the United States," he told reporters.
Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak told Israeli Army Radio that as far as Israel knew, Iran had probably renewed its weapons programme since 2003.
In Berlin, a spokesman said Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier would discuss the report late Tuesday with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
China said its stand on Iran remained the same -- to seek a solution through dialogue. A Foreign Ministry spokesman said he hoped Iran could fulfil its UN resolution obligations and cooperate with the IAEA.
A European security source familiar with intelligence on Iran said the change of stance of American intelligence was welcome, and would undermine the position of US hawks. "The American agencies have in essence come closer to the position of the European ones," the source said.
"I think a political process [in dealing with Tehran] is more of an option than what we've perhaps been seeing from the hawks in the United States -- the positioning for a military attack on Iran and so on," the source added.
The findings of the report overshadowed the meeting of world powers last Saturday in Paris that discussed a further round of sanctions against Iran over its refusal to halt uranium enrichment. Two UN sanction resolutions have been passed so far against Iran, unanimously but after diplomatic wrangling among the five permanent UN Security Council members.
The US report could not have come at a better time for Iran. Much speculation on the fringes of the Annapolis meeting suggested that a major reason for the gathering was to get Israel and the US together to plan a possible attack on Iran.
On Sunday, Iran received Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad who reassured Iran that Syria's attendance at Annapolis would not harm relations between the two allies. Iran had expressed frustration over the attendance of its top regional ally at the Annapolis conference last Tuesday. Some analysts said the meeting was partially an attempt by the US to break the alliance between Iran and Syria.
For his part, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told Mekdad, who represented Syria in the Annapolis conference, that "enemies" could not damage ties between Tehran and Damascus.
Another highlight for Iran was Ahmadinejad's presence at the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit as the first Iranian president to take part in the event. Iran officially asked that its president be invited, a demand that was reportedly unanimously accepted by Gulf state leaders.
Indicative of the positive reception was Ahmadinejad walking hand-in-hand with Saudi King Abdullah Bin Abdul-Aziz Al-Saud and Omani leader Sultan Qaboos Bin Said as they arrive for the opening of the summit.
In a bid to increase ties with the Gulf, Ahmadinejad urged the establishment of economic and security pacts between Iran and its Gulf neighbours. Gulf leaders responded well to Ahmadinejad's offer to strengthen bilateral ties.
"The Supreme Council stressed that the proposals will be studied by the GCC with a view to promoting all types of good- neighbourly relations and reciprocal respect between the GCC member states and the Islamic Republic of Iran and further contribute to supporting the security and stability of the region," read the GCC final statement.
According to analysts, it is yet to be seen if such Iranian diplomatic endeavours, along with the findings of the US intelligence report, will push the US to listen to reason, including moderate voices in Iran who have been lobbying for dialogue instead of confrontation. Confrontation, they say, only increases the powers of Tehran's hardliners.
According to Iranian analyst Sadeq Al-Husseini, who is close to moderate circles in Iran, "there is a big lie that the US is spreading, namely the international community is in consensus against Iran. The truth is that the only force working against Iran is the American-Israeli axis."


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