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A test for world powers
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 29 - 09 - 2005

The controversy surrounding Iran's nuclear programme seems to have no end, reports Mona Khalil
In spite of strong opposition from a number of United Nations Security Council member states, Western powers managed to force Iran to be referred to the Security Council over its nuclear ambitions.
Russia and China openly oppose Western efforts to take Iran to the United Nations Security Council over Tehran's nuclear activities. Iran says its nuclear activities have not violated or contravened the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. And, Moscow and Beijing support the official Iranian line. However, Western powers and in particular the United States are determined to see Tehran brought to book at the UN Security Council over its nuclear activities, and it seems they have had initial success.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Chief Mohamed El-Baradei warned that there is still room for diplomacy. El-Baradei said the question of referring Iran to the UN Security Council should not come up before November, when the 35-member IAEA board meets again. Iran has warned that if referred to the Security Council, it could start uranium enrichment -- a possible step towards making nuclear arms -- and stop allowing unfettered IAEA inspections of its nuclear facilities and programmes.
Iran concealed its nuclear fuel programme for nearly 20 years before it was confirmed by US satellite pictures in 2002. Traces of highly enriched weapons-grade uranium were found at its Natanz plant a year later.
Relations between Iran and the European Union deteriorated last August after Tehran announced its decision to break UN seals at the Isfahan nuclear centre and to restart work on the uranium enrichment process. According to specialists, enriched uranium can be used for both peaceful purposes, such as nuclear power generating, as well as in the making of nuclear arms.
While Tehran officials say their rapidly developing country is in need of additional sources of power, many believe that Iran is not to be trusted -- it has been hiding its nuclear sites from international experts for almost 18 years and has only recently agreed to let International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) specialists inspect them.
Works on uranium enrichment in the Isfahan centre had been voluntarily interrupted by Tehran last November after negotiations with the EU over Iran's nuclear programme reached a deadlock. Seals at the Isfahan nuclear centre were broken in the presence of specialists from the IAEA.
By resuming work in the Isfahan nuclear centre, Tehran has demonstrated its ability to brilliantly outwit -- and infuriate -- United Stated and European Union leaders, and all without breaking a single law.
Under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran has the right to process and enrich uranium for peaceful purposes, which presupposes conducting a complete nuclear fuel-cycle.
For the past two years, the European Troika -- made up of Britain, Germany and France -- has been doing its utmost to convince Iran to halt its nuclear programme and promised to prepare a seductive offer in return. In August, when the offer was finally made, Tehran made it clear that the proposal was unacceptable.
According to the Troika offer, France was to supply Iran with ready-made enriched uranium to be used at nuclear power stations, Germany was to provide modern technologies of nuclear plants construction -- automatically making Iran largely dependent on these countries. The offer also included the lifting of an embargo on the export of up-to-date technologies to Iran. A huge package of agreements on cooperation in computer and communication technologies as well as in the spheres of environment, land, air and sea transportation, were also offered.
Tehran, however, was unimpressed, perhaps because it had expected to obtain -- in addition to economic support -- official security guarantees and assurances that it would not be attacked or threatened.
After making repeated requests that Tehran halt its nuclear programme, the European Troika threatened to pass Iran's nuclear files to UN Security Council -- a step that could lead to imposing severe sanctions against the country.
Tehran's furious reaction followed immediately: Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani said that if Troika continued to press for a full rejection of the nuclear fuel cycle, Iran would withdraw from the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty and refuse to let IAEA inspectors examine its nuclear sites.
So far, Europe has been acting as a mediator between the uncompromised Washington and inflexible Tehran, and the US had visibly diminished its aggressive tone towards Iran in order to give the EU a chance to demonstrate its negotiation skills. Unlike the US, Europeans have never perceived Iran as a hostile country and there continues to be a substantial trade turnover between European states and Iran.
As the scandal around Iranian nuclear programme escalated, US officials have severely criticised Tehran, and threats of attack have been resumed. In an interview with an Israeli television channel, George W Bush didn't exclude possibility of using force against Iran, while US Defense Minister Donald Ramsfeld announced that the arms with which Iraqi rebels fight had Iranian origin.
Interestingly, the very same people who convinced Iran it was necessary to acquire nuclear programme 30 years ago, strongly deny Tehran the right to have a nuclear programme today. According to an article published in The Washington Post, Vice-president Dick Cheney, Ramsfeld and President of the World Bank Paul Wolfowitz, working in President General Ford's administration, played a significant role in convincing Iran to commence a nuclear programme.
Iranians are, however, undoubtedly outplaying Washington at the diplomatic field. Tehran recently succeeded to pinch Washington by proposing to offer the United States up to 20 million barrels of oil after devastating Hurricane Katrina on condition that the US lift its sanctions on Iran. Iranian President Ahmadinejad has also voiced his willingness to share peaceful nuclear technologies with the other Moslem countries. The decision to restart uranium enrichment in Isfahan as well as statements concerning Tehran's willingness to ignore the IAEA resolution demonstrate the conservative and categorical position of Iran's new leader.
By possessing nuclear arms Iran would put an end to Israeli superiority in the region as the only nuclear power, while the balance of powers in the Middle East would drastically change. For this reason, Israel remains Iran's most avid critic, with relations between Tel-Aviv and Tehran balancing on the edge of crisis. However, Israel remains untouchable as far as the nuclear issue is concerned, despite the fact that Tel-Aviv did not sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and for many years insisted that it did not possess any nuclear potential.
Meanwhile, Iran's traditional partner -- Russia -- initially demonstrated support of the international community, issuing a statement in which it advised Tehran to immediately stop the resumed work on uranium conversion and cooperate with the IAEA.
But after the EU threatened to pass the Iranian nuclear files to the UN Security Council official, Moscow took a strict pro- Iranian stand. The Foreign Ministry issued a statement declaring: "We consider proposals on passing this issue to UN Security Council counterproductive and non-contributing to finding solution for Iranian problem by political and diplomatic means".
Major backing and support of Tehran as far as its nuclear programme is concerned thus comes from Moscow as well as Beijing, and given that the two nuclear powers possess the right of veto at the UN Security Council, it seems likely that they will use it if necessary.
At the same time, head of the Russian Atomic Agency Alexander Rumyantsev said Russia was ready to join Germany, France and Great Britain in offering Iran a joint project of a new nuclear station.
Moscow has thus been forced to put pressure on the European Troika to secure Iran's right for nuclear programme development, but at the same time to delicately avoid the wrath of western allies. Moscow has had its fair share of severe US pressure in the past, specifically in relation to the issue of nuclear weapons when State Department headed by Madeleine Albright accused the Kremilin of selling nuclear secrets to Iran. It took significant efforts from Russian politicians to make Washington abandon the issue and by no means Moscow would appreciate being dragged through the same story all over again.
Today, Russia remains one of the few world powers that openly call Iran its friend, and enjoys warm economic and political relations with Tehran. In the past year, trade turnover between Russia and Iran reached $2 billion. Moreover, Moscow views Tehran as a strategic partner in the emerging post- Soviet "space" -- particularly in Central Asia and Caucasus, where interests of both countries coincide.


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