A car bomb, for the first time against the army, deepened tensions in Lebanon ahead of another attempt at voting for a president: Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut A car bomb on Wednesday morning killed Brigadier François Al-Hajj, one of the most prominent candidates to take command of the army if Chief of Staff Michel Suleiman becomes president, adding to prevailing uncertainty since the presidency became vacant. At least two other people were killed in the blast in Baabda, a wooded, wealthy suburb of Beirut and the traditional capital of predominantly Christian Mount Lebanon. Baabda Palace, vacant since president Emile Lahoud's term ended with no successor on 23 November, sits on a nearby hill. Neighbouring Yarze houses the Defence Ministry and army command. In short, as well as being symbolic in the current void, Baabda should be one of the most secure places in the country. This has been the first attack of its kind on the army. A chain of assassinations that has plagued Lebanon for the past three years killed eight figures or politicians supporting the ruling "14 March" anti-Syrian movement. But it was unclear that Al-Hajj was associated with either team, and the army has never been considered a party in the power struggle. Most Lebanese praise the army as their only non- sectarian national institution. Analysts say Al-Hajj, 55, had good relations with Syria and links with Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun, commander of the army during the Civil War. But then, so would most generals of his generation. Like Suleiman, he was a Maronite Christian. Few analysts would speculate about perpetrators or motives with any certainty in the hours after the blast, which threw Al-Hajj 15 metres and gouged a crater in the pavement. A car packed with explosives detonated as Al-Hajj drove past after leaving his nearby home, probably for the Defence Ministry. Al-Hajj would have been among two leading contenders to head the army had Suleiman been appointed president, as agreed by both sides. Parliament is due to convene on 17 December to hold a vote that has been delayed eight times since late September. Intense haggling over the premiership, cabinet positions and key posts is underway, with the opposition consisting of Hizbullah, Aoun and allied parties demanding greater representation in the next government. How to change the constitution -- so that senior public servant Suleiman can accede to the presidency -- when the opposition sees the government as illegitimate is the other main sticking point. "The most sensitive post subject to the bargaining is who will be the next head of the army, and he was the most prominent candidate," said Paul Salem, head of the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East Centre in Beirut. Part of the enduring confrontation between the pro-West 14 March and their opponents centred, therefore, on the job Al-Hajj was tipped for. Salem says this does not necessarily indicate that an internal faction might be responsible. "The position of the head of the army is of great concern to the big players in Lebanon, Syria, Iran, the US and Saudi Arabia. Each wants to push the army in a certain direction -- the US wants it to be an army that works with them and the Syrians want it to work under them," he said. Omar Nashabe, a criminology expert and justice editor for the pro-opposition daily Al-Akhbar, said Al-Hajj's candidacy as army chief was among several motives. Al-Hajj helped lead the Nahr Al-Bared battle between the army and the Islamist militant group Fatah Al-Islam, during which 168 soldiers, about 230 militants and 47 civilians perished. Despite the army's siege of the Nahr Al-Bared Palestinian camp, outside the northern city of Tripoli, the group's leader managed to flee. "Al-Hajj was head of operations and when they targeted Nahr Al-Bared they weren't able to capture the head of Fatah Al-Islam, Shaker Al-Abssi," Nashabe said. Salem agreed. "If the Fatah Al-Islam people are still around I imagine Al-Hajj would have been one of the targets," he said. Nashabe posited a third theory. "The martyr François Al-Hajj was in the south coordinating support for the Lebanese resistance [led by Hizbullah]. For that reason the Israelis have tried to kill him in the past," he said, citing military sources close to the late brigadier. He said that attempt had occurred in Rmeish, Al-Hajj's southern hometown. "Finally, he was also in the battlefield when the army was in direct confrontation with the Lebanese Forces in the past," Nashabe said. The army, under Aoun, and Samir Geagea's right-wing Lebanese Forces fought a bitter "war of elimination" at the tail end of the 1975- 1990 Civil War. Rancour persists between the two Christian leaders. Geagea is now part of the 14 March movement. If Lebanon's recent history is anything to go by, the authorities are unlikely to unmask the crime's perpetrators. To public knowledge, there are no official suspects yet in any of the assassinations that started with former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri, although an international tribunal is tasked with solving them. Nashabe said Al-Hajj's killing had dire implications for Lebanese safety. "If the perpetrators were able to kill the army head of operations, who was supposed to be among the first responsible for security, then that's a big threat to the security of the country, a more serious threat than posed by any of the previous assassinations," he said. Fractious political leaders began the habitual mudslinging almost immediately. Saad Al-Hariri, leader of 14 March's parliamentary majority, said the attack came at a "pivotal time at which Lebanon's enemies are seeking to consecrate the vacuum in the presidency", a reference to Syria and perhaps Iran. Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamadeh accused the "Syrian-Iranian axis" of hitting the military because it was the only body in Lebanon that could "balance Hizbullah's power". Hizbullah, which has good relations with much of the army command, condemned Al-Hajj's killing. Aoun said the interior minister should not retain his post because so many attacks and assassinations have occurred on his watch. "Is no one in this state capable of investigating a crime? Then who is protecting the citizens?" he asked in a press conference. He said he had supported Al-Hajj's bid to succeed Suleiman and said it was a "shame" to exploit his killing, in reference to his political opponents. But it is also possible the attack could galvanise both sides ahead of the next vote, Salem said. "Public reaction will tend to rally round the army and react very emotionally and nationally, which would increase the dynamic to speed up the election of the head of the army and be done with it. There's a sense that the delay in the election is leaving the army more vulnerable." Nashabe agreed. "We've seen that the 14 March group started accusing Syria immediately, even before the start of the investigation, which is totally unethical and unprofessional and could lead to even more tension. "But the attack might also have a positive effect, in that some people will realise how dangerous the situation is and come to their senses and try to push forward more seriously for a deal on how to resolve the vacant presidency."
