The killing of demonstrators in Beirut has thrown the army chief's presidential candidacy into question. Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut Two violent incidents jolted Lebanon from numbing political paralysis this week and raised the ghosts of the past -- some from last year and others from the more distant days of the civil war. Punctuating a two-month-old vacuum at the presidential palace and an enduring standoff between the Western-backed government and its Hizbullah-led opponents, the bombing and shooting of protesters pushed Lebanon perilously close to the brink of chaos. On Friday, a powerful car bomb beneath a flyover sent a wall of fire through rush-hour traffic in eastern Beirut, killing top police investigator Wisam Eid and at least three other people. Its timing showed a chilling disregard for civilian life even compared to most of the other 30-odd attacks and assassinations that have blighted Lebanon's past three years. Just two days later, Beirut was shaken by events named "Bloody Sunday" by some observers. It started with a string of protests against the capital's daily, debilitating power cuts. Youths blocked roads with burning tyres in Chiah, an area dominated by the Shia Amal opposition group at the start of the southern suburbs. The army stepped in and chaos ensued. Then the shooting started and by evening eight lay dead and at least 20 injured, mostly by bullet wounds. One of the dead was hit by a car in the protests and a ninth man died of gunshot wounds on Tuesday. But who was firing? Television footage showed soldiers sheltering behind military vans and pointing and firing at rooftops, apparently responding to snipers obscured by the darkness. Others showed pictures of what appeared to be gunmen in civilian clothes on overlooking roofs. Isolated rifle shots could be heard, as opposed to the automatic rounds of the army. But televised accounts of witnesses among the protesters and statements by the opposition divide blame between the soldiers, who could be seen beating and kicking some protesters live on air and snipers in nearby areas. Chiah and the junction on which the Mar Mikhael Church stands border on the predominantly Christian area of Ain Al-Roumaneh, where Christians attacked a busload of Palestinians in 1975 in the incident that sparked the 15-year Civil War. Lebanese media reported the arrest of several Lebanese Forces members in connection with the sniper fire. Al-Akhbar quoted security sources as saying a supporter of the right- wing Christian Lebanese Forces had been arrested with a gun fitted with a scope and a magazine empty but for one bullet, and that he had been in a location overlooking the confrontation. The police had not confirmed these reports at the time of writing. Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea denied the reports, saying several LF members were rounded up along with scores of protesters for possessing guns without a license. Hizbullah officials have suggested they already know who is responsible for the killings. "The army and judiciary are launching a joint investigation into the fire," an army source said. Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora described the eight protesters who died as "martyrs of all the nation" and declared an official day of mourning. Whatever the truth of Sunday's fateful events, analysts said it must be uncovered promptly if disaster is to be averted. Exactly this time last year, sectarian strife reared its head in two days of sectarian street-fighting. On the second, at the Beirut Arab University, snipers were also reported, but the culprits were never found and many felt the issue was dropped in the name of civil peace. The pro-opposition daily Al-Akhbar said the opposition has made clear this time it must be different. Army chief and official presidential candidate General Michel Suleiman visited Amal leader and speaker of parliament Nabih Berri and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah in the days after the incident; both demanded a prompt and thorough investigation. Amnesty International demanded an independent investigation, given the army's role as a "possible source of lethal gunfire". It is unclear where any of this leaves Suleiman's bid for the presidency, until now in principle backed by both sides, unlike the distribution of seats in the subsequent new government. Unless the Shia, the largest of Lebanon's many sects, are satisfied that the army is holding a serious investigation, it seems the long slog to find a head of state agreeable to both sides must start afresh. Hizbullah has long viewed the army as an ally and it is generally praised as a non-sectarian institution, with many Shia in its ranks. Sateh Noureddine wrote in the leftist daily As-Safir that Suleiman was no longer acceptable to the opposition, since the army no longer enjoyed its confidence. "This is the most prominent signal that civil war is now inevitable," he wrote. Omar Nashabe, a leading criminologist and justice editor for Al-Akhbar, said there was pressure for genuine accountability from grassroots level as well. "I don't know to what extent the Hizbullah and Amal leaders can control their own streets when you have this many people shot at." Nashabe said he had the impression the army had understood there could be no whitewash. "They realise it and they're making a real effort. I think the investigation will come up with results. If not then we're heading into a deteriorating situation." The government reaction to the unrest, which focused largely on criticism of the method of protest, had criminalised the victims, Nashabe believed. A Hariri statement, while expressing condolences, said citizens must not use protests over living conditions as an excuse to "confront the army". Geagea said the protests were not "impulsive and unplanned" and that the events that led to the deaths were "not innocent", even if the protesters were. Even if the demonstrators were violating the law, nothing justifies shooting at them. Because of Lebanon's polarisation between the two camps any protest against deteriorating living conditions in the country, including inflation and the power cuts, has tended to be portrayed as against the ruling team. "Prime Minister Siniora is acting as if half the population is his enemy, as if the Shia community is his enemy," said Nashabe. Government money has poured into policing and intelligence but not the antiquated judiciary, he added, hampering the need for accountable, effective investigations. The most high-profile victim of Friday's bombing, Eid, 31, headed the technical department of a police intelligence unit close to Sunni parliamentary majority leader Saad Al-Hariri, established after the latter's five-time premier father was assassinated in 2005. Most analysts believed Eid knew too much for his assassins' liking. Eid's unit worked with a UN-led investigation into Rafik Al-Hariri's killing and the chain of subsequent attacks, many of which have targeted anti- Syrian politicians and journalists. Security analysts suggested an alternative possible link between Eid's killing and an investigation into the Fatah Al-Islam militant group that fought the army last summer in the northern Nahr Al-Bared refugee camp. Army chief of operations François Al-Hajj, victim of the last assassination in December, coordinated the Nahr Al-Bared battle.
