The international community claims it is seeking to put forward a fair blueprint for a peace settlement in Darfur, writes Gamal Nkrumah This is as good a time as any for peace-making in Sudan's war- torn Darfur westernmost region. The elements of a Darfur peace settlement are no longer a mystery, nor do they require a lifetime to negotiate. And, there never has been an easy time to resolve the Darfur dispute. Indeed, this week the internecine fighting between the Sudanese government forces and the armed Darfur opposition groups has intensified. In the past few days alone, more than 14,000 Darfur refugees have fled across the border into Chad. The good news, however, is that Sudan signed operating rules for the United Nations-African Union (UN-AU) Darfur peacekeepers. This week, in an unprecedented development, the operating foundation stones of the United Nations-African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) peacekeeping forces were put in place. UN officials were upbeat. "This is a very important milestone on the way of UNAMID," the political head of UNAMID, Rodolphe Adada announced. The signing of the landmark agreement stands against the backdrop of the escalation of violence between Sudan and neighbouring Chad. The underlying strain in relations will inevitably generate "potentially destabilising regional implications," warned Jean-Marie Guehenno, head of the UN peacekeeping mission. For that to happen, a further deterioration of the security situation in Chad and Darfur must first ensue. Tremendous political tensions are being generated by the meddling in each other's domestic affairs by the Sudanese and Chadian governments. A full-scale war is looming in both Darfur and Chad, one that will have dire consequences for the entire central African region. Moreover, it has become abundantly evident that the Chadian political crises and the Darfur conflict are inextricably intertwined. The Chadian armed opposition groups led by the United Front for Democracy and Development (UFDD) failed to achieve what they wanted when they swept across Chad from the Sudanese border. The Chadian authorities suspect that the Sudanese government is backing the UFDD to the teeth. The Sudanese authorities disclaim the charge, pointing out that the government of Chadian President Idriss Deby supports the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), one of the most influential and Islamist in ideological orientation of the Darfur armed opposition groups. Indeed, the fighting this week is primarily between JEM and the Sudanese authorities. Succession planning is particular tricky in countries in Africa that have failed to fully embrace the democratic system of government. It is even worse in countries embroiled in civil wars. Chad and Sudan are both wrestling indecorously with the problem of succession -- it is even worse in Chad, of course, where President Deby is scheduled to step down in May 2008 when presidential polls are due to take place. If Deby wins the presidency again, the armed opposition groups in Darfur such as JEM stand to gain most. If his son Ibrahim emerges as a pliant successor, then all hell might be let loose. If, on the other hand, Deby bows out gracefully and a new Chadian president less sympathetic to the cause of the Darfur armed opposition groups takes over, then the situation in Darfur might radically change in favour of the Sudanese government forces and their allies, especially the Arabised Janjaweed militias. The Mission rules were agreed to by both sides. Among the terms of the agreement between the Sudanese government and the UN, Sudan has agreed to allow UNAMID planes to fly at night, a clause that the Sudanese government had long resisted. Sudan, likewise, had reservations against a hybrid force from non-African and non-Muslim countries such as Sweden, Thailand and Nepal. The Sudanese authorities argue that they would prefer to see peacekeepers from African and Muslim countries who are more attuned to the cultural specifics of Sudan and Darfur. There are, however, many hardliners within the Sudanese government such as Nafie Ali Nafie, former intelligence and national security chief, and currently and one of the most powerful and influential government figures, who are unhappy with developments. Indeed, Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir himself is thought to be unhappy specifically about the Scandinavian engineering units regarded as technically key to the provision of logistical support for the UNAMID troops. Only 9,000 of the 26,000 UNAMID troops are actually deployed in Darfur at present. There are also doubts about the presence of Thai and Nepalese contingencies. Sudan, for example, favours the inclusion of more Egyptian troops. Be that as it may, some other Sudanese officials play down the points of disagreements. "The document resolved all the differences," assured Sudanese Ambassador to the United Nations Abdul- Mahmoud Abdul-Halim Mohamed. Political bigwigs in Sudan are once again embroiled in the struggle of the country's outlying regions for a greater say in the decision-making process and wealth and power sharing. It is of symbolic significance that Sudanese Foreign Minister Deng Alor signed the accord. The minister, a member of the southern-based Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), is far more liberal in his opinion on Darfur than his colleagues in the cabinet -- members of the National Congress Party. Sudan simply needs men like Deng Alor to polish its tarnished image. This calls for a shift of power away from those Sudanese officials deemed hard-liners by the international community. And, that goes for the armed opposition as well which includes the Sudan Liberation Army, headed by veteran Abdul-Wahid Mohamed Al-Nour, one of the most popular of the war-torn region's public figures, and Sheikh Hassan Al-Turabi, Sudan's chief Islamist ideologue and leader of the opposition Popular Congress Party. The shift into an era of participation challenges this. The referendum in 2011 will determine whether the southern Sudanese wish to secede or remain part of Sudan. The three border regions between north and south Sudan, namely the Nuba Mountains, the Blue Nile, and oil-rich Abyei, are to vote in a separate referendum on whether to join southern Sudan or remain part of northern Sudan. The population of the three regions is overwhelmingly supportive of the SPLM. It is worth remembering that the southern Sudanese have other options. The governor of the Bank of Southern Sudan and deputy commissioner of the Central Bank of Sudan, Elijah Malok Aleng, announced this week that southern Sudan is to "close down" 15 Islamic banks. "Southern Sudan will be served by banks from neighbouring countries and indigenous ones," he declared. The move highlights the increasingly independent nature of the southern Sudanese government, especially as far as financial and administrative issues are concerned. The southern Sudanese will not be trembling at the thought of going it alone. The Sudanese authoritarian power is on the wane; soon it will be a moribund one, so paving the way to lasting peace. The same goes for Chad.
