World attention is focussed on the southern Sudanese referendum while the humanitarian situation in Darfur is fast deteriorating, writes Gamal Nkrumah The prognosis is looking ever more ominous in Darfur. What began months ago with talks in the Qatari capital Doha ended in failure this week with representatives of the Darfur armed opposition groups insisting on their demands for a greater say in government affairs and the acceleration of development in Darfur. They also stress that even though they are not separatist forces, they demand greater autonomy for Darfur. Looking ahead, the armed groups in Darfur are becoming ever more intransigent in their demands for greater participation in the decision-making process in Sudan. The resumption of fierce fighting is fraying the ties that bind together the disparate peoples of Sudan. The referendum in southern Sudan is bound to have serious economic repercussions on Darfur. Terror has stalked Darfur all too many times before. These days, though, the mood of the Darfur armed opposition groups is defiant. The Sudanese authorities and the Liberation and Justice Movement (LJM) failed to finalise a peace deal in Doha. The main stumbling block was their inability to agree on four key issues. The deadlock over power-sharing, security arrangements, compensation for victims of the violence instigated by government forces and justice in Darfur led to the termination of the peace deliberations. "We failed to reach agreement over these issues," LJM chief negotiator Taj Al-Din Bashir Niam told reporters in Qatar. It has been the paradox of the past half decade or so of fizzling peace talks that while a majority of Sudanese wanted a negotiated settlement to the Darfur crisis the Sudanese government seem incapable of disgorging a government capable of closing a deal with the Darfur armed opposition groups. This week's termination of the peace talks in Doha suggests that the people of Darfur and the Sudanese as a whole have either given up on peace and national unity or that the Sudanese political spectrum is now so fragmented they might as well have done. The Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), the linchpin of the Sudanese armed opposition groups, looks set to challenge the Sudanese government. Despite his determination to re-launch the Darfur peace talks, President Omar Al-Bashir may now find that he lacks a Darfur interlocutor. Nothing indicates he would meet the minimum demands of the people of Darfur, even if he could. The Sudanese government forces have renewed shelling armed opposition strongholds. The Darfur armed opposition groups in turn are threatening reprisals. In the past, the escalation of violence in Darfur was routinely blamed on the Sudanese government forces. The International Criminal Court based in The Hague, Netherlands, indicted Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir for committing war crimes and crimes against humanity as well as for genocide. Increasingly, however, the armed opposition groups of Darfur are accused of heightening tensions in Sudan's war-torn westernmost province. The indigenous non-Arab population of Darfur feels peripheralised, pushed to the fringes of the political and economic life in the impoverished province. The indigenous non-Arab peoples of Darfur indeed look like fertile ground for those sowing the seeds of rebellion. There is no sign that the five-year rebellion in Darfur is in remission, for the armed conflict still festers. Whether or not the talks eventually continue, suspicion will inevitably fall on the Sudanese government for stepping-up the violent campaign in Darfur. This is deeply worrying for the authorities in Khartoum. It has alarming implications not just for Sudan, but for the entire African continent. The ending of the peace talks in Doha is scarcely a comfort for Africa. It is a sobering time for the Sudanese populace. It is against the backdrop of the southern Sudanese referendum that the abrupt departure of the Darfur delegates from the Doha peace deliberations was tantamount to a message loaded with so much anti-Al-Bashir bile. Moreover, the Sudanese president, with his warning to impose Islamic Sharia law in case southerners decide to secede, does not make it easy for the people of Darfur to grasp the barbed olive branch that he may be trying to offer. Material wealth, or rather the lack of it, remains a crucial factor in the Darfur crisis. That said, it would be unwise to bet the bank on any dramatic shift in the distribution of wealth in Sudan after the discovery in commercial quantities of oil in the country because most of Sudan's westernmost province's people have too little of it. Parallel peace talks between rival Darfur armed opposition groups are on the cards. The LJM and JEM are currently contemplating peace talks between them. Ahmed Hussein Adam, spokesman for JEM, recently indicated that those talks about a possible truce between JEM and LJM are tantamount to a first step towards direct peace talks. Ironically, the receding tide of government control over Darfur has exposed serious cracks among the various Darfur factions. Nevertheless, the determination of JEM to implement the cessation of hostilities with the LJM and other armed opposition groups in Darfur is an encouraging phenomenon. It is in this context that the conciliatory words of Ghazi Salah Al-Din, Sudanese presidential adviser in charge of the Darfur file, came as a pleasant surprise. Hitherto, he had adopted a bellicose tone. Another interesting development concerning Darfur is that the African Union is redoubling its efforts to secure peace in Darfur. The head of the African Panel on Darfur, former South African president Thabo Mbeki, headed for Sudan in order to speed up the peace and reconciliation process. The Sudanese people should take some comfort from this. To close off the road to peace in Darfur will eventually embroil Sudan in a process of disintegration, armed conflict and Balkanisation. It will not bring security to the Sudanese people. It will aggravate underdevelopment and poverty. Moreover, it is bound to exacerbate the lamentable humanitarian situation in Darfur, even as Sudan as a whole lurches to militant Islamic fundamentalism, accentuated by the loss of the south.
