Darfur featured prominently at the UN this week and the Sudanese government was pleasantly surprised, writes Gamal Nkrumah The Sudanese government has a few straws to clutch at. Indeed, at the moment Sudan appears to be snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, not necessarily in the battlefield, but in the arena of international politics. US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte, in an unprecedented development, entreated the Darfur armed opposition groups to attend the Darfur peace conference scheduled for late October in the Libyan capital Tripoli. Negroponte's intervention was a godsend as far as the Sudanese authorities were concerned. Furthermore, he warned that the international community could impose sanctions on the Darfur opposition groups that decline to attend the Tripoli conference. Negroponte's statements were ecstatically welcomed in the Sudanese capital Khartoum. Khartoum's already sunny prospects vis-à-vis the West have brightened. This unforeseen development has naturally angered Al-Qaeda, a one-time close ally of the regime of Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir. Al-Qaeda's second- in-command Ayman Al-Zawahri urged the Sudanese to wage a jihad (holy war) against the so-called African Union -- United Nations "hybrid peacekeeping force". He unleashed a torrent of criticism against Al-Bashir. "He backtracked step-by- step and has now accepted everything [the West] imposed on him," lamented Al-Zawahri. However, observers note that it is unlikely that Western governments would seriously harm the cause of the Darfur armed opposition group, a point which was underscored by the Sudanese president. "We might be confronting problems over the upcoming negotiations," Al-Bashir warned. He hit the nail on the head when he conceded that the Darfur groups that agreed to attend the Tripoli conference, "do not, of course, represent all the armed groups of Darfur". The Sudanese president dismissed the groups as "armed bandits that have given themselves a political dimension", he explained to the Dubai-based pan-Arab satellite television channel Al-Arabiya. "They are still looting and attacking humanitarian groups," he charged. The Darfur armed opposition groups vehemently deny this. However, humanitarian agencies, including the British-based OXFAM, threatened this week to pull out of Darfur. "Aid workers have been raped. Aid workers have been killed. This is unacceptable," an OXFAM spokeswoman explained. The hitherto muted complaints of humanitarian relief groups have certainly become louder. This could prove catastrophic for the war-wracked westernmost Sudanese region. The leader of the most powerful faction of the Sudan Liberation Army Abdul-Wahid Mohamed Al-Nour declines to be drawn on what he sees as the "meaningless" talks in Tripoli. "There is no peace, so there is no place for peacekeepers. We want to ensure the personal safety of our people. The people of Darfur are being raped, killed and tortured on a daily basis," Nour said. Palpable political tensions are not confined to the refugee camps of Sudan's westernmost war-wracked province. Supporters of Nour took to the streets in a strong show of support for their leader who stressed that he would not be participating in the Tripoli meeting. "Police foiled an attempt to create disorder," explained Khartoum State Deputy Police Commissioner Mohamed Naguib Al-Tayeb. "Six people sustained injuries," he added. If the Darfur impasse is not resolved, the entire country might be embroiled in civil strife and political bickering. The likelihood of this is growing by the day. It is against this backdrop that President Hosni Mubarak flew to Libya on Monday for talks with the Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi over Darfur. Egypt is prepared to send troops and provide logistical support to the peacekeeping effort in Darfur. The ostensibly uneasy truce between the two leading coalition partners in the Sudanese government of national unity -- the Islamist-oriented National Congress Party (NCP) and the southern-based Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) -- is in shambles. In spite of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed in January 2005, there is growing resentment by the SPLM. "They [the NCP] are cheating us," warned Sudanese Deputy President Salva Kiir. The SPLM demands no less than $4 billion of the country's foreign revenues. Khartoum retorts that the SPLM has received $2 billion so far, and has no reason to grumble. Nonetheless, the buzz around Negroponte created a stir in Khartoum. Bush administration interference has added spice to the stew of domestic Sudanese rivalries. In spite of his outburst against the president, Kiir invited Al-Bashir for Iftar at his Khartoum residence -- Kiir spends most of his time in the southern Sudanese administrative capital Juba. Minni Arko Minnawi, a pro-government Darfur leader, also attended. Few Sudan watchers would put much money on the idea that peace is about to engulf Sudan. Everyone knows pretty well what a peace settlement would look like. The Sudanese Foreign Minister Lam Akol strongly objected to suggestions that the AU peacekeeping forces are inadequate. "African countries have supplied more than enough troops. Actually, 190 per cent of what is required," he claimed. "What is needed is support in terms of funding and logistics," he stressed. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon obliged and promptly announced the setting up of a credit fund to boost the Darfur peace process. The Darfur Peace Agreement of May 2006 was rejected by the vast majority of people in Darfur. The latest, still rather vague, plan for peace in Darfur did not go down well with the vast majority of Darfur - armed opposition groups either. But how to get there? To kick-start the Darfur peace process, to take this historic step, the goodwill of neighbouring countries and the international community at large is a prerequisite. The leadership has not been paying attention to the demands of the people of Darfur. There are those who regard Nour's intransigence as setting a dangerous precedence. The chances of bridging the gap between Khartoum's circumspection and the Darfur armed opposition groups' scepticism do not look high. The Bush administration's inability to push harder may reflect the fact that even if the Tripoli conference is successful, there are doubts about how far it will take the opposing groups in Darfur down the path towards peace. It is all up in the air. Amid accusations that government forces are continuing to persecute the indigenous people of Darfur, the Sudanese government has argued not very convincingly as far as its opponents and the Western powers are concerned that desperate times demand such heavy-handed measures. Khartoum has justified grabbing repressive new powers in Darfur and the country at large. The curtailment of civil liberties will only heighten tensions between the Sudanese authorities and their opponents. The Sudanese may dislike foreign soldiers, but that is the only option for properly policing Darfur. That would be a real test of Sudanese sovereignty. If the Tripoli meeting is a damp squib or does not happen, it will be a blow to the Darfur peace process. The Tripoli conference is important, but not the end. The armed opposition groups are loath to be left out in the political cold. They want a piece of the Sudanese oil cake. There is nothing new in Sudan's oil wealth benefiting the few and bringing misery to the many. Some disenchanted Sudanese and sceptical Sudan observers complain that Washington's main concern is Sudanese oil wealth. Their suspicions about the Bush administration politics may have been proved correct. The West prides itself in its expertise in finance. And, everyone knows that the AU is a cash- strapped organisation. Logistical support is yet another factor that would encourage the AU to resort to practical assistance from the West -- so be it. And, another try at the Darfur peace process is due. But not one dictated by Negroponte.
