Whoever wins Zimbabwe's presidential polls has a gargantuan task at hand. But bigger challenges lie ahead, notes Gamal Nkrumah Slowly does it, or does it? Politics is both a messy and mysterious business, and especially so in Africa. The Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) has ruled Zimbabwe with an iron fist since independence from Britain in 1980. This week, its stranglehold on Zimbabwe might be loosened somewhat. Be that as it may, never underestimate ZANU-PF leader, Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe. He is a seasoned politician and he knows that he cannot be rubbished by his people even if he loses last Saturday's presidential poll. The Zimbabwean army, the police and the dreaded Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) are all behind Mugabe. And, many of his people are. As Al-Ahram Weekly went to print, it was still not certain what the final result was. The opposition claims outright victory. The government claims a tie. There were initial rumours on Tuesday that South Africa was brokering a deal; however, it later transpired that that was not the case -- or at least that was what the leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) Tsvangirai and members of the Mugabe government disclosed. What is crystal clear, however, is that the presidential race was razor- sharp close. To listen to the international media, one would imagine that millions of Zimbabweans are gasping to see the back of Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe. And, yet even his critics concede that he is popular in the rural areas; his land grab policy has won him accolades among his own people and throughout southern Africa and beyond. Indeed, it is peculiar how often Westerners are surprised to learn that Mugabe has certain popular appeal, not so much however, in the urban centres -- not just the middle class suburbs, but in the sprawling townships as well. For the urban dwellers of Zimbabwe, 28 years of Mugabe rule has been a question of promises but no delivery. Mugabe may be about to bounce back, but so too will Zimbabwe's sanctions- fuelled economic crises. In the past couple of months, parallels have been drawn between Kenya's political crisis and Zimbabwe. Nothing can be further from the truth. Kenya is a multi-ethnic, multi-religious country. Zimbabwe is a far more homogenous country with virtually two main ethnic groups -- the majority Shona and minority Ndebele. True, the Shona people are subdivided into Zezuru, Karanga and Manyika, but they all speak the Shona language and clearly ethnicity is not a factor in Zimbabwean politics. In Zimbabwe, what is at stake is the political future of the country and the accompanying economic ramifications. By any measure, Mugabe is a difficult leader to deal with. He is headstrong, and he can be ruthless. Last Saturday's presidential polls might have been one of his greatest challenges since assuming office, but certainly his biggest tests are well behind him. If he steps down now, he will still be revered as the Father of the Nation. He is a shrewd politician and might still clinch a deal with his opponents, in which case he will remain. At worst, he would be handled with kid's gloves as some sort of senile elder statesman. He will not take kindly to that sort of treatment, and that would be grounds for continued concern over Zimbabwe. The opposition MDC too, has its diehard supporters. However, its image is tainted as a pro-Western organisation -- a weakness that Mugabe never fails to exploit. The ruling ZANU-PF has long been led by a cronyistic political elite. There have been defections, too. The most famous today is the charismatic and relatively youthful Simba Makoni, at one time a Mugabe right-hand man, his finance minister and secretary-general of the Southern African Development Community (SADC). This time, he was running as an independent presidential contender. Well, as it happened he lost resoundingly -- or so Zimbabwe's Electoral Commission says. As well as being suave Simba Makoni was the youngest of Zimbabwe's presidential hopefuls and he looks it. At election rallies he jumped up and danced, the crowds roaring with laughter and excitement. There were lots of reasons for the dismal performance of Makoni; primarily because he is too closely associated with Mugabe. Many Zimbabweans dismiss him as a Mugabe henchman in disguise. Morgan Tsvangirai, on the other hand, is dumpy and morose. He has cause to be bellicose. He has suffered greatly at the hands of Mugabe's henchmen, including the thugs in the security forces. He has neither the natural charisma of Makoni or Mugabe. Initial results according to the MDC suggested Morgan Tsvingirai had 50.3 per cent to Mugabe's 43.8 per cent, which should preclude a run-off, though a ZANU-PF spokesman said this was "wishful thinking". Most probably there will be a run-off considering who holds the power. Decked out in ZANU-PF attire, Mugabe delivered what might be his swan-song on election eve, acknowledging that after years of stultification, there is a new spirit of yearning for change, of rejuvenation. He spoke of the dangers of "speculation and lies" and of "causing unnecessary havoc". That speech was a defining moment for Mugabe. Whoever wins, change is on the horizon. Mugabe wants to pep things up. He knows he has to. Zimbabwe has long epitomised African freedom, the bitter liberation struggle (or chimurenga ) was an inspiration for people of African descent the world over. A new Zimbabwean president would need to make the case anew. All these would be welcome changes of substance and symbolism. Zimbabwe is a country in deep trouble. It was once among the most promising economies of the continent. Today, most Zimbabweans cannot get anti-retroviral treatment for HIV/AIDS. The income gap between townspeople and those in the countryside is considerable, but not growing. If anything the gap is actually closing. Indeed, at least in some rural parts of the country peasant farmers can live off the land. In the townships it is hard to eke a living with unemployment and inflation 100,000 per cent, whatever that is. There is a way to salve these wounds. Most Zimbabweans just manage to scrape a living. To play the Chinese card. They are the biggest investors in Zimbabwe now and are on their way to steer the country into its orbit, much to the chagrin of the old colonial masters. To complicate matters, graciously retiring is not an option open for Mugabe. There is still a strong chance that he has another term or so to work up a compelling pitch. On the face of it, the Zimbabwean presidential and parliamentary elections are abundant proof that the country is a vibrant democracy. Mugabe is certainly not a dictator. He is not an African potentate in the traditional sense. He permits opposition parties to have a say and to field presidential candidates with the potential to outdo him. The new Zimbabwean president will face a reality test of his own. Yet, there was an understanding that whoever won, Zimbabwe's problems will not evaporate overnight.
