Damascus says that outside mediation is not needed in Lebanon. What it means is that it is relying on its Lebanese allies to prevail, reports Bassel Oudat from Damascus The Syrian government watched closely as Lebanese parties convened with Arab League negotiators in Doha last Friday. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Moallem made several phone calls to Arab foreign ministers present in the meetings, especially Qatari Foreign Minister Hamad bin Jabr. But Damascus doesn't want to be seen as party to the talks. When President Bashar Al-Assad met Qatar's Prince Hamad bin Khalifa a few days before the gathering in Doha, he said that the Lebanese conflict was a purely domestic affair. What he meant, however, was that Arab or international mediation was undesirable. A similar position was voiced by Syria's envoy to the Arab League. Youssef Al-Ahmed opposed the formation of an Arab committee to mediate among the Lebanese and shot down the idea of an Arab deterrence force deploying in Lebanon. Such proposed measures are seen by Damascus as an attempt to reduce further Syria's role in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Syria's official media reported minimally on the Doha conference, offering little analysis or commentary while maintaining aloofness tinged with pessimism. Syrian columnists and editors provided no views of their own and, uncharacteristically, no indication of the official line. The official Tishrin newspaper nonetheless persistently referred to the Lebanese government as being "illegitimate" and susceptible to "foreign dictates". Arguing that the first priority in Lebanon is the formation of a national unity government, Al-Thawrah, another official publication, called on Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora to step down. Due to a host of geographic and historical factors, Damascus wants its ties with Lebanon to remain close. Any attempt to scale down those ties can greatly harm both countries, Syrian officials maintain. But Syria is not having its way. With the Syrian army out of Lebanon, Damascus has already lost a bargaining chip in the Arab-Israeli conflict. The Syrians believe that current events in Lebanon are part of an attempt to keep Damascus out of Lebanon's politics and promote US plans for a new Middle East. The Syrians also believe that the Americans are determined to implicate Damascus in the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri. Once the Syrian regime is under pressure or -- better -- out of the way, the Americans would do as they please in Iraq and the region, goes the Syrian argument. Abdul-Nabi Hejazi, former director of Syrian television, says that Syria is the "only remaining country in the region that opposes the US plan for the Middle East", and that this is why the Americans are out to get it. In a statement to Al-Ahram Weekly, Hejazi maintains that Lebanese majority politicians are hostile to Syria because "they are part of the American scheme." And the mistakes Syria made in Lebanon over 17 years? "It was the current [Lebanese] government that encouraged us to make these mistakes," Hejazi adds. The fact that moderate Arab countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan generally back the Lebanese majority is not lost on the Syrians. And the less Damascus feels at home with Arab countries, the more it drifts towards Tehran. Iran is a "strategic component of Arab struggle," a key figure in the Syrian ruling Baath Party, Fayez Ezzeddin, told the Weekly. "The Arab and Islamic military alliance in the Middle East is now as strong as the military alliance of Israel and America." War is no longer an easy decision for the United States, and this is why Washington is trying to exercise all other forms of pressure on Damascus and Tehran, Ezzeddin says. For now, Damascus believes that its allies in Lebanon won't accept an agreement that is not suitable to the Syrians. But Damascus is worried that Arab and international pressure on Iran may push things in the wrong direction. Still, Syrian officials hope that no agreement settling the current conflict in Lebanon would be signed without their approval. They are also confident that their friends in Lebanon will stand their ground. It would be risky to ignore such Syrian views, for it is hard to imagine a trouble-free Lebanon with a disgruntled Syria next door. Syria and Lebanon still have much to talk about, and not just about the delineation of borders in the Shebaa Farms. So regardless of what happens in Doha or the opinions of moderate Arabs, Europe and the US, an inter- Lebanese agreement would have to have Syria's stamp of approval. Political analyst Abdallah Torkomani says that events that took place in Lebanon lately were "a pre-emptive message from Syria and Iran". The message was directed to the future president of Lebanon, and its gist was that "he mustn't cross the line." In a statement to the Weekly, Torkomani said that the Arabs shouldn't wait for international solutions that "may never come". Although Torkomani opposes Iranian "infiltration" in the region, he wishes for the Arabs to get together with the Iranians under one political "umbrella". Perhaps Arab moderates would talk more to the Syrians. Perhaps the Arab League would organise a regional conference about Lebanon and invite Iran, he suggests. Can Syria bring down any agreement concluded in Doha, regardless of the level of international and Arab support to that agreement? Some analysts believe yes, it can -- so long as Iran and Hizbullah are on its side.
