Ahead of Lebanon's upcoming elections Syria feigns indifference, but observers underline how crucial they will be, Bassel Oudat reports from Damascus Lebanon's 7 June parliamentary elections will be a showdown between two coalitions whose battles have dominated Lebanese politics since the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri in 2005. The primary point of difference between them is their position on Syria, and then on Iran and the United States, this point argued in the context of either supporting the Lebanese resistance or incorporating it into the Lebanese army. One coalition is the March 14 alliance, which is in opposition to Syria and is led by Saad Al-Hariri. It comprises the Future Movement (Saad Al-Hariri), the Progressive Socialist Party (Walid Jumblatt), the Lebanese Forces (Samir Geagea), and the Phalange Party (Amin Gemayel). The other is the March 8 alliance, which is led by Hizbullah and supported by Syria and Iran. It comprises Hizbullah (Hassan Nasrallah), the Amal Movement (Nabih Berri), the Free Patriotic Movement (Michel Aoun), and other, weaker forces on the political front. Many Lebanese supporters of the March 14 alliance are wondering to what extent Syria might get re-involved in Lebanese affairs, directly or otherwise through parliamentary elections, making Lebanon once again a site for regional and international tension. They are trying to draw up scenarios for what Syria might do if it senses that its allies won't win a parliamentary majority. They say that Damascus wants a government submissive to the Syria-Iran axis; that block or delay progress by international court on the assassination of Rafik Al-Hariri; postpone drawing up borders between Syria and Lebanon; solve the problem of the Shebaa Farms, occupied by Israel; retain the Syrian-Lebanese Supreme Council; and ignore the demands for the return of Lebanese prisoners and the "disappeared" in Syria. In other words, a government that would return to the status quo before Syria departed from Lebanon. Meanwhile, Syria is trying to appear indifferent to the Lebanese elections, though many observers note how critical they will be for Damascus. These observers say that Syria doesn't view this as a typical parliamentary election, but rather as a destiny-forming stage in relations between the two countries. Some Lebanese opponents to Syria are pointing to the existence of an "operations room" overseen by Syrian security agencies and formed a year ago with the primary goal of enabling the Lebanese opposition allied to Syria to win the parliamentary elections. But Syria knows well how dangerous any direct intervention in the Lebanese elections would be, and that it is being closely watched. It knows that such involvement would bring undesirable results; that the US opening up to it remains governed by detailed considerations; that Damascus desperately wants Washington to appoint a new ambassador to Syria, and for the new US administration to continue the dialogue it started with Syria a few months ago. Tripoli representative in the Future Movement, Mustafa Aloush, says that Iranian and Syrian intervention is "clear among the March 8 forces, for they are entering the elections in a single bloc led from abroad. The Syrian Social Nationalist Party and the Baath Party don't have a popular base that would allow them to get their candidates into parliamentary seats. Yet these two parties, which are subservient to the Syrian regime, in fact hold parliamentary seats secured through clear instructions given to Syria's allies in Lebanon. The situation is the same with the Free Patriotic Movement -- directives order that it increase its size even though Hizbullah and the Amal Movement are able to contain it in their areas of influence and prevent it from winning any parliamentary seats therein." Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has made numerous media statements over the last three months declaring that what concerns Damascus in the Lebanese elections is that "the Doha formulation for forming a national unity government post-elections is carried out, regardless of who wins." He also said that "elections neither bring nor end stability," but rather "accord is what brings stability." Meanwhile, Syrian Minister of Foreign Affairs Walid Al-Muallim has said that Syria "supports the upcoming Lebanese parliamentary elections taking place at their scheduled time and being run securely and transparently." He also said, "Whoever wins these elections wins," while adding, ominously to some, "but the winner must read the Lebanese situation well." It is not clear whether this was a Syrian threat or just wise advice to the Lebanese. Syrian Ambassador to Washington Emad Mustafa gave a talk last March at the Middle East Institute in the US in which he said that Syria "is not concerned with the outcomes of the Lebanese elections" and that it "supports holding peaceful elections". He added: "We know that the United States has allies in Lebanon, and we also have allies. What we always tell our allies is to form a shared government regardless of who wins." Lebanese-Syrian relations became tense after the assassination of former premier Al-Hariri and remained so until the middle of last year when the intervention of French President Nicolas Sarkozy broke Damascus's isolation, and after Arab states intervened to find a means of securing a domestic Lebanese accord. Syria announced that it was prepared to exchange diplomatic representation with Lebanon and reopen a number of suspended issues, such as the drawing of borders and the file of "disappeared" Lebanese. The two countries now have ambassadors to one another for the first time in their history. On the international level, many European states fear Syria's direct or indirect interference in upcoming Lebanese elections. France has called on Syria to "read the outcomes of the Lebanese elections well" and to "act moderately"; that what takes place in Lebanon following the elections "will affect the way that France deals with [Syria], as well as America's opening up to it." French officials pointed out that Syria "has not shown positive overtures or dialogued with the international community since November". On the part of the US, Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman has said that the US "won't sacrifice Lebanese interests in its sincere attempts to improve relations with Syria". Media reports have further revealed that US Middle East envoy George Mitchell has postponed a visit to Syria until after the Lebanese elections, and that he is "waiting to see in what way Syria will interfere with the elections". In the region, Saudi Arabia has denied suggestions of a Saudi-Syrian agreement on the Lebanese elections, despite official Syrian sources having made reference to an understanding not to intervene because "Lebanon is not ruled except by agreement." Saudi Minister of Media Abdel-Aziz Khoja has said that Saudi Arabia "doesn't interfere with the Lebanese domestic situation and won't interfere in the future". Iran says that it and Syria are accused of involvement in the Lebanese elections. An Iranian official told the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat that Iran and Syria "are discussing the Lebanese situation among other issues", including the Lebanese elections. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says that the outcomes of the Lebanese elections will be significant for the entire region. Accusations related to the Lebanese parliamentary elections are numerous, but perhaps the most explosive are accusations of foreign intervention in support of the March 14 or March 8 alliances. To be sure, Lebanon has been a site of regional and international conflict throughout its history. But with all sides watching each other, margins for manoeuvre are slight.
