Syrian-Lebanese relations took a leap forward with Syria's bold move to recognise its neighbour at last, Bassel Oudat reports from Damascus Syria and Lebanon are to establish diplomatic relations for the first time ever, putting ties between the neighbours on a more equal basis -- and helping Damascus emerge from its regional isolation. On Tuesday, Bashar Al-Assad, the Syrian president, issued a decree paving the way for the dispatch of an ambassador to Beirut. Lebanon's foreign minister immediately left for Damascus to agree a date. The first signs of improvement in Syrian-Lebanese ties emerged in September 2008 when Lebanese President Michel Suleiman visited Syria and agreed with Syrian President Al-Assad on ways to sort out some thorny issues, such as the exchange of ambassadors, the drawing of borders, and defusing tensions between the Lebanese opposition and majority. Syria was under pressure from France at the time. Paris had made it clear that unless Syria acted in a certain way, Europe was willing to squeeze harder. As it happened, Damascus bowed down, promising to show due regard for Lebanon's sovereignty in the future. Following the visit, Lebanon's government and various parties expressed satisfaction with the way things had turned out. Then they waited for the good news to start coming from Damascus, but there was none. The Syrian legislature did not endorse the exchange of ambassadors. The borders were not drawn, and everyone acted as if the whole thing could simply wait. Since the Doha meeting, the Lebanese have passed a new election law and seemed willing to implement everything else approved in Doha. Saad Al-Hariri, a key figure in the 14 March majority, has made an effort to reach reconciliation with opponents in Tripoli, Akkar, Al-Beqaa, and the mountain areas. As a result, various parties have agreed to remove posters and political slogans from the streets. Beirut is now rid of the posters and banners that for nearly 30 years had accentuated the political divisions in the country. This step was hailed by many as a major achievement. But when Syria started changing its tone on Lebanon, much of the optimism of the past few months started to dissipate. During a four-way summit in Damascus in September, which brought together the Syrian, French and Turkish presidents as well as the Qatari emir, President Al-Assad expressed concern over the dangerous situation in northern Lebanon, especially in Tripoli. Afterwards, the Lebanese managed to reconcile the combatants and everyone thought that the trouble in northern Lebanon was over. Then two bombings struck in Damascus on 27 September. Following the bombings, Al-Assad said that Tripoli had become a hotbed for terrorist movements. Saad Al-Hariri said that the remarks were unacceptable and amounted to interference in Lebanese affairs. In response to the bombings, last week Syria deployed 10,000 troops on Lebanon's northern borders, claiming that the move was a precaution against smuggling and the infiltration of terrorists. The Lebanese simply didn't believe it. Some said that all Damascus wanted was to bring Lebanon back under its military control. After the blast in Tripoli, concern turned to panic. Things were not looking good. Syrian and Lebanese analysts say that for Damascus and Beirut to have normal relations, regional reconciliation is needed, especially between Saudi Arabia and Syria. Also, investigations in the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri would have to be come to a satisfactory end -- or even better, be shoved aside. Many Lebanese feared that Syria may intervene in Lebanon on the pretext of fighting terror or stopping the smuggling of weapons into Syria. Then came the lightning bolt about recognition, clearly intended to prove to the Lebanese Syria's good intentions. For now, everyone is waiting for the Lebanese legislative elections to be held in March 2009. All are hoping that the elections will give them what they couldn't gain by force or diplomacy. In further evidence of Syria's new diplomatic demarche, in September, President Al-Assad received various Lebanese delegations, including some who hadn't visited Syria in years. Among the Lebanese visitors were Minister Talal Arsalan (Walid Jumblatt's only rival for the leadership of the Druze community), a delegation from the Amal Movement, a delegation from Zahlah, and the chief of the Lebanese Journalists' Association. Al-Assad confers regularly with Suleiman Franjiyeh, a key Maronite leader. Evidently, Syria is taking a keen interest in the upcoming Lebanese elections. A landslide victory for Syria's allies in the elections, more probable with news of recognition fresh in people's minds, could go a long way towards vindicating Syrian policy in Lebanon. The French government has not objected to the deployment of Syrian troops near Lebanon's northern borders. Paris considered the troop movement an internal Syrian affair and agreed with Syria that there is a terror threat in northern Lebanon. France is yet to press Syria to implement the commitments it made in Doha. With the exception of Saudi Arabia, Syria is not coming under any regional pressure to change its policy on Lebanon. Meanwhile, Damascus is trying to help its allies win the next elections in Lebanon. And it is hoping against hope that interest in Rafik Al-Hariri's murder will fade away.
