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The waiting game
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 25 - 12 - 2008

Syria is looking forward to Obama taking the reins of US power, hopeful he will end its isolation, writes Bassel Oudat from Damascus
Syrian-US relations plummeted over the past five years into depths unseen since 1967. Differences ensued over the US military invasion of Iraq in 2003, which Syria -- sitting on the UN Security Council at the time -- strongly opposed. Following the occupation of Iraq, Syria cooperated with the US in fighting terror. It prevented volunteers from Arab and foreign countries from using its territories to reach Iraq, arresting some and deporting others. It exchanged security information with the US and pledged to tighten its borders with Iraq even more. But this wasn't enough. Washington continued to accuse Syria of sponsoring terror and facilitating the passage of "terrorists" into Iraq.
In summer 2004, Syria helped obtain a three-year extension for Lebanese President Emile Lahoud. The move divided Lebanon and alienated the Americans. Relations hit rock bottom when Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri was assassinated in February 2005. Acting under pressure from France and the US, Syria pulled out of Lebanon within months, ending 29 years of military presence in that country. With Paris and Washington insisting that Damascus had a hand in Al-Hariri's murder, the UN Security Council ordered an investigation into the case. Washington pulled its ambassador to Syria out and called for a change in Syria's "conduct".
To press the point, Washington imposed sanctions on Syria's main commercial bank and airliner, prohibited the supply of spare parts to Syrian companies, froze the assets of two private companies, including one owned by Rami Makhlouf, the cousin of President Bashar Al-Assad, and refrained to talk to officials suspected of terror connections. Furthermore, Washington urged its European allies to do the same. As a result, the European Commission declined to sign a partnership deal with Syria that was initiated in 2004. It became clear that Syria needed a way out of rapidly approaching isolation. But first it had to change its policies on Iraq, Lebanon, Palestinian organisations and Iran.
Tensions between Syria and the West remained high until French President Nicolas Sarkozy suggested that dialogue with Syria might prove more fruitful than pressure and threats. Eventually, Syria began to revise its policies. It accepted a settlement in Lebanon, agreed to a calming-down period in Palestine, tightened its borders with Iraq against possible infiltrators and, in April, launched Turkish-mediated indirect talks with Israel. During a visit to Paris, President Al-Assad suggested that the talks with Israel would become more successful if Washington were to sponsor them. For a while, it seemed that the Bush administration would have no excuse for keeping the heat on Syria. Some optimists even predicted a return of the US ambassador. But this wasn't to be.
In April 2008, Washington accused Syria of cooperating with North Korea in nuclear production. US officials claimed that the Kibar facility in northeast Syria (bombed in December 2007 by the Israelis) was the site of a nuclear reactor intended to enrich plutonium. The International Atomic Energy Agency sent experts to Syria but couldn't reach a firm conclusion. Syria dismissed the accusations as part of a negative publicity campaign.
Things took a turn for the worse when US troops landed near Abu Kamal on the Syrian-Iraqi borders and launched an attack against what the US claimed were terrorists. The Syrians said that eight people died, all civilians, including women and children. Damascus retaliated by pulling its guards from the Iraqi borders and shutting down the American Cultural Centre and the American School in Damascus.
Despite his pro-Israeli statements, Syria hopes that relations with Washington will improve once Obama takes over as US president. Syria's information minister said that Obama's election would give a push to peace and help alleviate the region's problems. A delegation of Obama aides visited Damascus to discuss regional matters within weeks of Obama's victory. Syrian diplomats took the occasion to voice resolve in fighting "terror", keeping things quiet in Palestine, encouraging stability in Lebanon and Iraq, and keeping up talks with Israel. In particular, Damascus seemed eager to have Washington mediate in talks with Israel.
In December, former US President Jimmy Carter visited Damascus and said that he expected Syrian-US relations to warm once Obama takes over. Carter added that Washington is likely to become involved in Syrian-Israeli talks.
Obama's choice of Hillary Clinton as secretary of state dampened Syrian hopes, however. Clinton is known for her pro-Israeli views and her dislike for Hamas and Iran. But one of Clinton's associates, Martin Indyk, said that the "gap can be bridged" between Damascus and Washington.
Despite their discomfort with Clinton, Syrian leaders hope that the next US administration will improve ties between the two countries, mainly through returning the US ambassador to Damascus, lifting sanctions, and sponsoring Syrian- Israeli talks. Syrian diplomats believe that Obama's administration will recognise the importance of the Syrian role in the region and stop pushing Damascus around. In return, Damascus is willing to be more accommodating in its regional policies.


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