Al-Hariri will visit Syria shortly but will this be a courtesy call or a historic visit which will end tensions spanning four years, asks Bassel Oudat in Damascus The Syrians expected Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri to be in Damascus soon after he delivered his government's policy statement, but instead he chose Saudi Arabia as the inaugural stop of his tour of Arab and foreign states. This will be followed by a visit to Syria to end a boycott by Al-Hariri of the Syrian regime, which was triggered by the assassination of his father former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri in February 2005. Al-Hariri's visit to Saudi Arabia comes as no surprise, given the strong relations he has with the leadership there, as did his late father before him. In fact, Saudi Arabia was one of the strongest supporters of Al-Hariri and his policies in Lebanon, and played a role in the formation of the younger Al-Hariri's incumbent cabinet. Doubtlessly, his stopover in Saudi Arabia is a courteousness visit by Al-Hariri to the Saudi leaders. Damascus did not even wait for the policy statement before it invited Saad Al-Hariri to visit. In fact, Syria's prime minister extended an invitation as soon as the Lebanese agreed on the composition of their government. Damascus was not disappointed when Al-Hariri gave his policy address, and was reassured by the positive references towards Syria. The address revealed that the Lebanese government "is looking forward to raising the level of brotherly relations between Lebanon and Syria, in keeping with the historic ties and joint interests [of the two countries], based on trust, equality and respect of each other's sovereignty." The address neglected to mention UN Resolution 1559 which calls on Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon under supervision. Al-Hariri had reiterated this as soon as his government won a vote of confidence in parliament, and also sent a delegation to convey his condolences to Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad on the death of his brother. In this more relaxed atmosphere in Syria, preparations for a visit are full speed ahead in both Beirut and Damascus. Al-Hariri's government won an overwhelming vote of confidence on 10 December, where 122 representatives voted in favour and three abstained -- a majority which has not been seen since Al-Taif. These figures are even higher than those achieved by Al-Hariri senior when he became prime minister. Ahead of Saad Al-Hariri's visit, Syrian officials said he is welcome any time and indicated that preparations are feverishly underway, even though it may not appear so on the surface. The Syrian media focussed on the importance and significance of the visit. According to one Syrian source, Prime Minister Al-Hariri's presence in Syria "is an event in itself; everything else is details." Damascus believes that the trip will mark a new phase of Lebanese- Syrian relations in line with the Arab and international desire for Syria's leadership to support Lebanon. This will positively influence interactions between the two neighbours, which will also be mirrored domestically in Lebanon and Syria. It will, however, reflect poorly on those who are discomfited by the visit on principle, since it undermines their political rationale. According to Syrian sources, Damascus will listen to what its Lebanese guest has to say, since he is first and foremost the head of the Lebanese government, the son of Rafik Al-Hariri, and also for other reasons. These sources deny that the visit will only benefit Syria, but insist that as a result Lebanon will achieve great political, security and economic gains. It will also be a factor in improving Syrian-Saudi and Syrian-Egyptian ties, and perhaps even usher in fresh reconciliatory Arab relations. Syria's Al-Watan newspaper described Al-Hariri's visit as "The Event -- The Transformation" with which the prime minister is launching his new term. The newspaper noted that his visit will directly and tangibly affect many issues, such as strengthening and stabilising Al-Hariri in power after Damascus embraces and protects him. Having described the Lebanese government as "the best possible, given the de facto divisions and the open political conflict", the newspaper noted that Al-Hariri's stop in Damascus will bring a new dynamic to the playing field and improve the standing of the government and its prime minister. "The visit is not only important for restructuring Lebanese-Syrian relations, but also for Lebanon's status in the region," asserted Al-Watan. "Syria has proven its presence in the region, which is very important for Lebanon since Syria is the most prominent supporter of its affairs." In response, majority representatives in Al-Hariri's government described the trip as a state visit, not a personal one. He is travelling as the head of government, not the leader of a political movement or majority. "This visit should not be promoted as anything more," they argued. "Neither will it influence the decision of the international tribunal in any way" as it investigates Al-Hariri senior's assassination. Ahead of the visit, Lebanese MP Michel Aoun, leader of the Change and Reform bloc, associated with Hizbullah and Amal, went to Damascus at the invitation of Al-Assad. No details were given about the visit, except what the media reported as the strengthening of ties. Aoun denied any connection between his trip and Al-Hariri's anticipated visit. Informed sources, however, assert that the invitation was to reassure Aoun that Damascus will not alter its relationship with him after talks with Al-Hariri, and that he will remain an ally and a confidante of Syria's leadership. Meanwhile, subpoenas issued by the investigative judge in Syria and Lebanon to Lebanese politicians and military figures almost snuffed the visit before it began. The subpoenas were filed by former chief of general security Major General Jamil El-Sayed, who is closely affiliated with Syria and was suspended for four years in the wake of Al-Hariri's assassination. The visit was jeopardised because some of those who were subpoenaed are in Al-Hariri's inner circle. It appeared as though Syria was indirectly dictating to Al-Hariri the delegation that could accompany him on the trip; namely, none of those with subpoenas, including former ministers Marwan Hamada, Charles Rezq, Hassan Al-Sab, former MP Elias Attallah, judges Said Merza, Saqr Saqr and Elias Eid, officers Ashraf Rifi, Wessam Al-Hassan and Samir Shahada, journalists Hani Hammouda, Faris Khashan and Hamid Gherifani, in addition to former ambassador Johnny Abdu, among others whom El-Sayed accused of falsely testifying against him or aiding in giving false testimonies. Bothayna Shaaban, Al-Assad's political and media adviser, was quick to deny any connection between Syria and these subpoenas, saying that this is a private lawsuit by El-Sayed. Shaaban asserted that Damascus does not want to obstruct Al-Hariri's visit in any way. But the plaintiff is highly respected by Syria's leadership, and met with Al-Assad soon after his release from jail in summer and once again one month ago. It is worth noting that regional and international efforts paved the way for the visit, which only a few months ago was impossible. Saudi Arabia played a major role, as did France, and Syria responded by playing a more positive role in the formation of a Lebanese national unity government. In response, Arab and Western capitals noted Syria's cooperation in facilitating the formation of the government more than 140 days after Al-Hariri became prime minister. No doubt, the prime minister's agenda will be packed with overdue issues between the two countries, but will not include Syria's possible involvement in his father's assassination. Al-Hariri will focus on strengthening a brotherly relationship of equality between Lebanon and Syria, bilateral issues such as demarcating the borders, the Lebanese identity of the Shabaa Farms, Lebanese citizens who are missing in Syria, as well as revising economic and service agreements between the two states. Some observers believe that the visit could be historic and end chronic tensions between Al-Hariri and the Syrian leadership, while others warn against such sweeping optimism. They believe the visit might only be a courtesy call by a new prime minister, as was the case when former prime minister Fouad Al-Siniora visited after his first government won a vote of confidence. Overall, the Syrians hope Al-Hariri's visit will be both functional through meeting with top officials, including the prime minister and minister of foreign affairs, but also of a personal nature when he meets with Al-Assad. Leaders in Damascus hope that the trip would be an ice- breaker with Al-Hariri, especially for some of Al-Hariri's supporters who refuse rapprochement with Syria. They are also concerned about the outcome of the international tribunal investigating Al-Hariri senior's assassination. It is certain that the success or failure of the visit will decide the future of relations, cooperation, coordination and "brotherhood" between Lebanon and Syria. It appears that after four years of accusations, conflict and boycott, the Syrians and Lebanese have come to realise that they need to maintain their special relationship based on a common history, joint interests and intersecting borders. This is especially true since Syria is Lebanon's only access to the outside world by land, and internal Lebanese equilibrium requires approval from Syria -- a reality in place since independence.
