Why is Egypt spending precious political capital on shaky US attempts to kick-start MidEast peace talks? Dina Ezzat seeks an answer Nothing is certain about the outcome of direct talks that will be launched next week between the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Israel. This is the short assessment of concerned Egyptian diplomats on the new diplomatic drive set to be put in motion 2 September in the US capital. Slated to be present at the launching ceremony are US President Barack Obama, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. President Hosni Mubarak and Jordanian King Abdullah will also attend. The presence of the heads of the two Arab states that have already signed peace deals with Israel is meant -- according to Egyptian and Jordanian diplomats -- to lend maximum support to Abbas who has been reluctant to go to talks that he suspects, according to a senior Palestinian aide, will produce nothing. According to Presidential Spokesman Suleiman Awwad, Mubarak is expected to make a statement before the participating leaders to underline the need for prompt negotiations that could spare the Middle East from decades of instability and bring about a fair peace deal. Mubarak's statement, Awwad added, will be inspired by a long "unmatched" accumulative experience in Arab-Israeli negotiations since the launch of Egyptian-Israeli peace talks when Mubarak was vice-president to late president Anwar El-Sadat. Cairo in particular has been instrumental in conveying positive vibes to a hesitant Abbas, cautioning that it would be "unwise and indeed harmful to lose the direct engagement of Obama or to let Israel convince [Abbas that he] is incapable of negotiating for a final deal," according to one Egyptian diplomat. Meanwhile, Egyptian officials announced details of phone calls and messages exchanged with US counterparts preparing the ground for the launch of direct talks absent tangible guarantees from the US or concrete commitments from the international community on where these talks should lead, or on what basis and timeframe they should be conducted. "Of course we have no reason to antagonise Obama who made it very clear that he would not take no for an answer on launching these talks," one Egyptian diplomatic source said. He added that the US looks to Egypt as a key mediator in the region and Egypt has to be up to the job or else the US will count on other regional partners. Some Egyptian diplomats who have taken part in managing Egyptian- American relations over the past couple of decades say it would be absurd for Egypt to abandon this role. "Our role in helping with the settlement of the Arab- Israeli conflict and in promoting the moderate ideology across the region is valued by the US. We are the moderates and we act accordingly," said one. On the other hand, these same diplomats acknowledge that Egyptian- American relations have always been -- and will always be -- haunted by Israel. On the record, these officials like to argue that it is not a three-way relationship but a bilateral relationship between Cairo and Washington. Speaking on background, however, they acknowledge that when it comes to the Middle East it is unrealistic to expect the US to depart from the Israeli agenda. "This applies to Turkey, which is a NATO member, and it applies to Iran, which is an adversary of the West, and it also applies to the Arab countries who have all presented Israel with political and diplomatic gestures to please the US. Egypt is no exception," said an Egyptian diplomat responsible for relations with the US. For their part, US diplomats acknowledge "Egypt's crucial role in promoting Middle East peace". It is this "role", they say, that encourages the US administration to annually pass economic and military aid packages to Egypt. "Every time there have been problems [between Israel and Egypt] things were not easy. This year things were not at all problematic," said one US diplomat in reference to the US Congress. "It is very true. When Israel complains its many friends in the Congress start making problems for Egypt and it becomes difficult for the friends of Egypt in the Congress -- and they are much fewer of course -- to defend the Egyptian interests," said an Egyptian diplomat in Washington. For the past few years, Egypt has been avoiding confrontation with Israel in order to avoid getting into parallel arguments with the US. The less biased positions of the Obama administration towards Israel have caused no change in the policies of Egypt at the official level, despite much criticism from the opposition. Indeed, the participation of President Mubarak himself in the launch of uncertain direct talks is indication, say Egyptian diplomats, of how far Egypt is willing to go in engaging the Obama administration. For Gamal Abdel-Gawwad, director of Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, it is worth it for Egypt. He argues that the Obama administration is willing to put some pressure on the Israeli government, on freezing settlement expansion and on the timeframe of peace talks. "It is essentially in the interest of Egypt to keep the US involved at the highest level possible in pursuing Middle East stability," if not Middle East peace. Abdel-Gawwad argues that when Mubarak and King Abdullah choose to invest political capital in the launch of direct talks, despite many reasons for scepticism, Arab capitals will be in a better position to demand that Washington stick to certain key parameters for a final settlement, in order to produce as good a deal as possible for the Palestinians. "I know that it is easier and in fact safer to be pessimistic over Middle East peace, but it would be unscientific to suggest that this new round of talks has zero chance of delivering a deal," said Abdel-Gawwad who promptly added that "the difficulties are immense but the exercise is not futile". For their part, Egyptian diplomats add another reason for the decision of Mubarak to take part in the 2 September event: to talk bilaterally with Obama. Mubarak was scheduled to visit Washington for a summit with Obama this spring. The plans were disrupted by Mubarak's health problems. Today, there is much that Mubarak wants to discuss with the US president, both in terms of bilateral and regional issues. The agenda includes reviewing internal political developments in Egypt and the situation in Sudan with an upcoming referendum on unity. "Mubarak and Obama will hold a bilateral meeting that will cover a wide range of issues of concern, and yes, more US exports of wheat to Egypt could be on the agenda," said an Egyptian official. It is also expected that the regime, said Abdel-Gawwad, will try to solicit US support for "the pace and modalities of domestic political reforms in Egypt" ahead of legislative and presidential elections this and next autumn.
