A flurry of diplomatic activity ripples across the region ahead of the Arab summit, but what could come of it? Dina Ezzat looks for answers On Saturday, in Aswan, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will meet with the foreign ministers of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan -- four moderate allies of Washington, known as the Arab Quartet. The meeting comes on the eve of the Arab League summit scheduled to convene in Riyadh 28 March for two days. In Aswan and Riyadh, diplomatic delegations have four main issues to address: the future of Iraq, prospects for Palestinian-Israeli talks, reaction to Iran's determination to push ahead with its nuclear programme, and the growing regional polarisation between moderates and extremists (in the vocabulary of the US and Israel) and/or Sunnis and Shias (as feared in many Arab capitals). Arab and American officials have been firm in asserting that the outcome of the Aswan meeting is not meant to have direct bearing on resolutions that will be adopted by Arab leaders at the Riyadh summit. It is an open secret, however, that Arab capitals with close relations to Washington have been engaged in a process of intensive political discussion to pre-empt the outcome in Riyadh in a way that accommodates the regional vision of the US -- provided, that is, that this vision does not undermine crucial Arab interests. The rationale, as several Egyptian and other Arab diplomats have affirmed, is to get the most possible out of a series of meetings that started with the regional tour of Rice in January and will continue until mid-April when Egypt hosts a meeting between the Arab Quartet and the International Quartet on the Middle East (the US, the EU, Russia and the UN). Judging by the outcome of recent preparatory meetings, this diplomatic flurry is unlikely to be particularly decisive. Arab countries, for the most part, are in disagreement with the US over demands to reformulate the 2002 Arab peace initiative. Israel wants any reference to a Palestinian state to be based on provisional borders and demands the removal of any reference to the plight of millions of Palestinian refugees into a separate resolution that would address the total plight of all refugees in the Middle East. It also wants fast-tracked Arab- Israeli normalisation. Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa and the foreign ministers of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Syria have all affirmed in no uncertain terms that the Arab peace initiative is not up for amendment. Informed Arab and American diplomatic sources say that the issue of refugees will be subject to future talks depending on the outcome of possible direct Palestinian-Israeli negotiations that Rice is working with regional allies -- particularly Cairo, Amman and Riyadh -- to orchestrate. "We are waiting for Israel to make a serious proposal towards moving on the road of peace, rather than making continuous demands for the amendment of the peace process," Moussa said following talks in Amman. "Arabs have made their offer for peace. It is the other side that should say 'Let us talk about it'," Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit told reporters in Cairo this week. Egyptian Foreign Ministry and Arab League sources say that dedicated efforts to promote the Arab peace initiative as a basis for a Palestinian-Israeli settlement might include requesting the UN Security Council to formally adopt the initiative, of which it has made positive reference in previous Middle East resolutions. Regarding Iraq, not much is expected to emerge from ongoing Arab-American consultations. Informed Arab sources say that the Arab summit is likely to adopt the same resolution that Arab foreign ministers agreed upon during a routine meeting held in Cairo earlier this month. The text of the resolution underlines the need to adopt measures to end Shia-Sunni confrontation, to preserve the territorial unity of Iraq, and to agree in principle on eventual US withdrawal from Iraq. "The US would love to find an exit out of Iraq but Arabs have nothing to offer on that front. In fact, some Arab capitals are likely to remind Rice that the US cannot leave Iraq before it fixes the damage it has done by its invasion -- at least partially," commented one source. Future Arab-American talks on Iraq are expected to take place within the coming weeks in the region. It is within the framework of such meetings, rather than the framework of the Arab summit, that discussions are likely to be conducted on issues such as the reincorporation of some Baath elements in the Iraqi state and the viability of a controversial oil law that many criticise for granting to the US effective control over Iraq's oil resources. While much concern focuses on Iraq, Arabs are also worried about US future plans on Iran. Today, no Arab capital excludes the possibility of a limited US military strike on Iran's nuclear installations some time this summer. Arabs themselves are not particularly fond of the current regime in Tehran. However, they have serious concerns over the ramifications of any military strike on overall regional stability that remains shaky. Arab Gulf capitals are especially alarmed. Through the Arab summit, Arab states are likely to advise a diplomatic approach towards Iran. In the meantime, behind closed doors, Arab leaders will discuss what reaction may be possible to what everyone now terms "expansionist Iranian moves". The crux of current agreement between the US and its Arab allies is to work on either containing or isolating Iran. To this end, several Arab capitals have been advocating reducing pressure on Syria. This advice is slowly seeping through to some quarters of the American decision- making circle. With this broader aim in mind -- and in the hope of stabilising a politically-agitated Lebanon -- the Arab summit is likely to see the return of Damascus into the Arab fold, though not back into the driving seat it once shared with Cairo and Riyadh.
