Middle East peace diplomacy is experiencing a new wave but, asks Dina Ezzat, will it really lead anywhere? It could all lead to nothing but then again it could perhaps help bring back some form of direct or indirect Palestinian-Israeli negotiations. This is the shortcut explanation of otherwise lengthy and elaborate talks that Egyptian and Palestinian officials give in reply to questions on the rationale behind the new wave of diplomatic meetings and the new sense of optimism that is being officially described as a "possible" resumption of Palestinian-Israeli peace negotiations suspended since late 2008. On the eve of 2009 President Hosni Mubarak received Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Following the meeting that took over two hours, Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit announced a "new tone" of talk by Netanyahu. And despite the fact that the top Egyptian diplomat declined to qualify Netanyahu's political posture in Cairo last weekend as indicative of a qualitative change in his previously intransigent positions, Abul-Gheit explicitly said, "the Israeli prime minister wants to move ahead." A few days later, on Monday in Sharm El-Sheikh, Mubarak received his frequent visitor: Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. On the same day he received his closest Arab partner in promoting the resumption of Palestinian- Israeli peace talks: King Abdullah of Jordan. The announcements made at the end of the two consecutive meetings by the foreign ministers of Mubarak and Abdullah, as well as by Abbas himself, provided no clear sound bites to indicate a near resumption of peace talks, despite the lack of the previous firm Palestinian condition of a full freeze of illegal Israeli settlement building in occupied Palestinian territories. They also failed to indicate a continued determination to stick to this condition which was in fact included in the roadmap, the bible of the peace process for the past seven years. A "yes and no" answer was given by the three officials to practically every basic question especially those on expectations for the resumption of direct or indirect negotiations. Abbas said that his position conditioning the resumption of peace talks to the halt of settlement building is "well-established". However, he added that he was not opposed to the convocation of any meetings "in principle". Abul-Gheit and his Jordanian counterpart Nasser Joudeh said the "challenges ahead" of the resumption of peace talks should not be underestimated. However, they stopped short of saying that Arabs condition the resumption of peace talks strictly on overcoming those challenges, especially those related to Israel's rejection of a full settlement freeze and the status of East Jerusalem occupied by Israel in 1967. It seems now that the future of the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks would be determined primarily by US intervention. According to Egyptian, Palestinian and other Arab diplomats, if Washington can get Netanyahu to slightly expand a limited settlement freeze which he announced three months ago for a total 10-month period, then talks could possibly be resumed in the first quarter of this year. The US, the same diplomats add, would need to provide a letter of guarantees to the Palestinians that should Netanyahu fail to cooperate on administering constructive peace talks within two years, it would then support the establishment of a Palestinian state within the borders of 1967. Abul-Gheit, along with General Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman, are planning an extensive round of talks with US officials in Washington early next week. Joudeh is also planning a parallel trip to the US capital. The objective is to get the Americans and the rest of the international community, represented by the Quartet, on board. "It is very tricky, obviously. We could go into a process that fails to deliver as was the case before, but the other alternative now is to sit and wait for the [US President Barack] Obama administration to get Israel to abide by a full settlement freeze and to commit to negotiate in good faith," said an Egyptian diplomat. The wait for Obama to act seems to be falling out of favour, especially in Cairo and Amman. Both capitals, according to their diplomats, seem to be concerned over the cost of the freeze of the peace process and the political weight Abbas shoulders in the face of his opposition from Hamas. Egyptian and Jordanian diplomats explain that the peace process was the core of the political platform in dealing with the resistance- based platform that Hamas adopts. They add that the all but announced total failure of this process means simply that Abbas has been defeated. Moreover, Egyptian diplomats acknowledge that Washington has all but conditioned its support for Cairo's attempt to strike a Palestinian national unity deal between Abbas and Hamas on the resumption of peace talks. For Egypt especially, the resumption of national unity talks is becoming crucial to mitigate the harm sustained by the recent furore over toughened security measures Egypt is applying on its borders with the Gaza Strip, under the control of Hamas for over two years. In Sharm El-Sheikh on Tuesday, Mubarak received Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal who had earlier received Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal. Following his talks in Sharm, Saud took off to Damascus for talks with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Top on the agenda of Saud's talks is the possible resumption of Palestinian national unity. "Nothing is certain. It could all flop," commented an Egyptian diplomat. This, he explained, applied to both the peace negotiations and national unity talks.
