Dina Ezzat reads into the political signals intended by Egypt's abrupt cancellation of consecutive visits by top Israeli and Palestinian officials "It's not getting anywhere. It really isn't getting anywhere." This was the flat assessment offered by one Egyptian diplomat on US facilitated Israeli-Palestinian indirect peace talks. According to this and other diplomats -- Palestinians and Americans especially -- the chances of moving to direct talks, still to be supervised by George Mitchell, the US presidential Middle East envoy, are fast eroding. The general assessment is that indirect talks will continue, with no serious results expected, until September when the exercise will end, as anticipated by Arab foreign ministers. According to every Arab and Western diplomat who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly over the past few weeks, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is not ready to do the minimum required to launch direct talks on final status issues, much less to reach an agreement via these talks. Some say he is not ready because he does not want to give anything to the Palestinians. Others say "complex political balances within the [ruling] Israeli coalition" constrain him. What is clear is that Netanyahu wants talks without substance. "After the meeting between Netanyahu and [US President Barack] Obama, the Americans told us there is a possibility that something could be worked out if the Palestinians are given support to move to the direct talks," said the same Egyptian diplomat. "They promised a tight negotiation process with serious American intervention and we were willing to cooperate, but Netanyahu failed to even refrain from his provocative policies for just two days," he added. A scheduled July visit of Netanyahu to Egypt was originally delayed, from early to later this month. "We thought it would be better for us to listen to him after his meeting with Obama," said the Egyptian diplomat. Then it was announced on Tuesday as being further delayed, only to be cancelled on the following day. Similarly, a visit of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas -- also announced at first to be delayed for 24 hours -- has been cancelled. While some sources have suggested that the two visits might take place early next week, Egyptian officials insist that they will only take place when there is potential for talks to produce results, and when the schedule of President Hosni Mubarak allows. Meanwhile, the announcement of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that the chances for direct talks between Israelis and Palestinians are not high at present is being seen as an implicit admission of failure on the American side, either to get Netanyahu to show flexibility or to get Abbas -- and the rest of the Arabs -- to further succumb to the former's wishes. "This announcement came after [some] Arab [capitals] had gone so far as to announce their willingness to cooperate on offering Abbas support for direct talks. It also comes after the Americans received the approval of these [capitals] despite ongoing settlement activities and plans," noted a senior Egyptian official who asked for his name to be withheld. "This goes to show that in fact Obama has given up fully, or almost, to Israeli demands and that he cannot do more." The same official added that there is not much to be expected of a next round of talks that Mitchell is planning for early next week. "I am not sure he will be able to make any breakthrough, when and if he comes." According to this and other concerned peace process officials, Netanyahu has all but killed any prospect that Obama could announce a peace deal between the Israelis and Palestinians. Today, diplomats say it is increasingly likely that Obama will abandon the Middle East peace file for now and pick it up again some time next year, or perhaps not at all. The year after next year, they note, will be a campaigning year, and if Obama has any hope of being re-elected he will need to stay off Israel's toes. The plan that Palestinians, Egyptians and other Arab leaders are currently discussing is to go to the UN General Assembly in September, in the wake of the anticipated conclusion of proximity talks, and ask for international support for the right of Palestinians to have an independent state within the 1967 borders. Some Arab diplomats say there is a growing sympathy for such a move on the international scene. Western peace process diplomats disagree, insisting that they could not support any position that might be seen as overtly hostile to Israel.
