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Hopeful or hopeless?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 04 - 03 - 2010

Under American pressure, Abbas has agreed to indirect talks with Israel, with some Arab support and without preconditions, writes Dina Ezzat
"So that American efforts to revive the peace process succeed." This is how top Palestinian peace negotiator Saeb Erekat portrayed the decision of the Palestinian Authority to resume indirect talks with Israel despite the latter's unchecked construction of illegal settlements on Palestinian land.
During two consecutive days of Arab foreign ministers meetings, on Tuesday and Wednesday, a qualified green light was given to President Mahmoud Abbas signalling some collective Arab support for his decision.
The strongest support Abbas received came -- predictably -- from the camp of Arab moderate states: Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and Morocco. Syria, however, declined to lend its support to Abbas. Walid Al-Muallim, Syrian foreign minister, publicly stated that his country is distancing itself from the Palestinian decision to resume talks, even if indirect, with no clear agenda and no specified target.
"We have no other choice. The Americans are not doing what we had expected them to do. They are not pressuring (Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin) Netanyahu and he is putting his hands on more and more Palestinian land every day," said a Cairo-based Palestinian diplomat. According to this diplomat, Abbas was faced with scepticism from some in the foreign ministers meetings, "But he told them that he has nothing else to do and that he is being pressured from the Americans. He even asked them if they can come up with a better exit, but they had nothing to offer except the old story of going to the UN Security Council to put pressure on Israel."
Palestinian -- and for that matter Arab -- peace process diplomats are not particularly interested in the UN Security Council path. "It does not lead anywhere, and it has not gained us anything. The Americans are clear: they said they wanted talks away from the UN Security Council, and they said they are not allowing the UN to act against Israel. It is as simple as that," commented an informed Egyptian source.
Egypt is credited -- or held responsible -- by Palestinian diplomats for spearheading the path towards indirect talks. Palestinian diplomats say that it was Egypt that persuaded Abbas to accept the American offer, "given that it is the only thing available". Egyptian officials do not deny it. They insist that resuming talks was crucial for the survival of Abbas. One senior Egyptian official said that if Abbas did not resume peace talks he would have been "politically defeated for good".
"The agenda of Abbas is one of talks, against the Hamas agenda of militant resistance. If Abbas was to announce the ultimate failure of talks, then he would be announcing the ultimate success of Hamas," the official said.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, this source did not conceal the keenness of Cairo to reduce the influence of Hamas -- indeed all resistance entities and supporters. The objective, he argued, is to reduce the military tension between these entities and Israel. "There are signs that should not be overlooked of possible military tension and this is something we have to avoid in every way possible."
On Tuesday, at the Foreign Ministry, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit hosted a meeting for counterparts from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and Morocco to secure sufficient support for resuming indirect talks. The prospect of talks and possible ways of garnering support for them was also discussed Tuesday in Sharm El-Sheikh in a meeting between President Hosni Mubarak and Abbas. Today, in Berlin, Mubarak will call on German Chancellor Angela Merkel to use her influence with Netanyahu to encourage from him a more positive attitude.
"We want Germany to help us in getting Netanyahu depart from his provocative actions, including the demolition of Palestinian homes in East Jerusalem, the construction of new settlements, and so on," commented one Egyptian diplomat. According to this diplomat, Egypt is asking other influential world capitals -- including Washington and Paris -- to do the same.
On Tuesday, President Mubarak called on Netanyahu, during a phone call, to show more sensitivity to the situation of Abbas and Arab capitals supportive of the resumption of indirect talks. Mubarak also called on the Israeli prime minister to pursue indirect talks in good faith.
Meanwhile, Cairo and the rest of the moderate capitals are soliciting the help of Ankara to deliver a more cooperative posture on the part of Damascus, Tehran and the resistance groups that Turkey keeps good relations with. During his meeting with President Hosni Mubarak in Sharm El-Sheikh on Tuesday, and with President Mahmoud Abbas in Cairo on Wednesday, visiting Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu was called on to "convince" the resistance camp to give indirect talks a chance.
For his part, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa said that the next round of talks is the last ditch attempt on the part of Arab countries in the negotiations process. Should the next months fail to present productive enough results, he added, Arab states will call on the international community to act firmly.
Regardless, most optimistic and moderate peace process diplomats in the region -- when approached off the record -- give indirect talks close to zero chance of producing a peace deal. No fixed date has yet been announced for the resumption of talks. It is expected, however, that they will resume in the third week of March, after the Quartet meeting that will convene in Moscow on 19 March and before the Arab summit scheduled to convene in Sirt on 28 March.


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