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The end in sight
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 27 - 01 - 2005

Cairo moves to ensure a Palestinian-Israeli "cease-fire", writes Dina Ezzat
Cairo is in the process of dotting the i's and crossing the t's of a six-month but renewable "cease-fire" between the Palestinian resistance factions and the Israeli occupation army.
Cairo is hopeful that such a deal can be reached before Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit arrives in Washington for talks with new US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in late February.
At the same time, Cairo is planning to host senior Palestinian and Israeli officials during the first days of February. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is scheduled to visit Cairo, and Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom is to arrive in Sharm El-Sheikh by the middle of next month.
Egyptian diplomats say they are not excluding a visit by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to Sharm El-Sheikh where he could meet Abbas sometime in February or March before President Hosni Mubarak's visit to Washington that is tentatively set for April.
According to a senior Egyptian diplomat the fact that Cairo is trying hard to deliver results before the expected visits to Washington means it wants to "secure US support" to what he described as "an overall Egyptian plan to provide the Palestinian president with international, particularly American, diplomatic and financial support.
"We know that despite what he says, Sharon may want to corner Abbas and further aggravate the already difficult living conditions of the Palestinians. What we want to do is block any opportunity to move in this direction. And the best way for us to do this is to work closely with the Israelis and the Americans," the diplomat said.
The ultimate objective of the agreement that Egypt is trying to broker between the Palestinians and the Israelis is to initiate a political dialogue that could proceed the Israeli disengagement from Gaza.
"We are working on establishing the guiding concepts of a cease-fire," Abul-Gheit said on Tuesday, adding that the expected timeframe of the deal would be "one to two years provided that talks and cooperation will continue, that there will be a working atmosphere and an improvement in the situation of the Palestinian people."
The main target of Egyptian diplomacy is to garner sufficient Arab and international assurances to be accorded by both Hamas and Islamic Jihad to secure and finalise the deal. "Hamas and Jihad have serious concerns about the cease-fire. They say they are willing to try but they don't want to really commit themselves," one Egyptian diplomatic source commented. He added that the only way to get the two leading factions to commit to the cease-fire is to provide them with the assurances they are looking for.
Palestinian diplomatic sources in Cairo say that what Hamas and Jihad want are written guarantees from the US, the EU and Egypt that Israel will refrain from targeting their leaders and launching military raids into Palestinian territories. Hamas and Jihad also want to give themselves the right to walk out of any "cease-fire" arrangement if they see that Israel is not holding up its side of the bargain.
Egyptian diplomats say that at this point there is no way of providing Hamas and Jihad with such guarantees. "What we can offer and what we are working on with the Americans and the European Union are verbal assurances," one source said. Egypt is also working on "generous and immediate" financial support for the Palestinian Authority. Moreover, Egypt is working with Israel to ease restrictions imposed by Tel Aviv on the movement of Palestinian workers.
"We are really concerned that if Abbas reaches his 100 days [of leadership] without delivering on economic development on the ground, he could lose support among his people. This would give more leverage to Hamas and Jihad and make them more willing to resist any long-term cease-fire, especially since they are convinced that the current Israeli government is not willing to deliver any real peace deal," the Egyptian diplomat added.
During talks with senior British and American officials this week in Cairo, Abul-Gheit discussed future financial and political support to be guaranteed by the US and the EU to the Palestinians. Sources say they received "decent promises that should be implemented sooner rather than later".
Following talks with top Egyptian officials in Cairo, US Assistant Secretary of State for Near- Eastern Affairs William Burns appeared committed to lend Washington's support. The current days represent a "promising moment that never happened before," to attain noticeable progress as far as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is concerned, Burns said in Cairo on Tuesday.
He said Washington was highly encouraged by both the "positive" steps taken by Abbas to make peace possible and by the Israeli response. "There is a big chance for "both sides to reach an agreement," Burns stressed.
Meanwhile, Cairo is talking with Tel Aviv about suspending hostile acts and statements against the Palestinians. And subject to consultations this week was a recent Israeli decision to annex all properties of Palestinians in East Jerusalem who left following its occupation in 1967. Egypt has lobbied Jordanian support on this front.
"I think we are moving in the right direction and there are sufficient indications that progress could be on the way," Abul-Gheit said.
This said, the top Egyptian diplomat was unwilling to express optimism -- or exclude pessimism. His aides admit that the situation is "still quite fragile". They argue, "there is no deal until there's a deal."
Some even acknowledge that progress could become a setback if no sufficient international support is forthcoming. "We are particularly concerned about the US," commented one Foreign Ministry source. "We believe it is in the hands of the US to either maximise the outcome of our efforts or waste them, depending on the line it will take with the Palestinians and with the Israelis."
Additional reporting by
Magda El-Ghitany


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