Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf steps down with his head held high, for now, writes Gamal Nkrumah "I might have committed some mistakes," conceded Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf Monday. "But, I am only human." Chastened, the man raised as a proud soldier who rose quickly within the ranks reluctantly relinquished his post as commander-in-chief. But that was simply the first of many severe blows that eventually led to Musharraf's political knockout. In more ways than one, Musharraf was the architect of his own downfall. His partnership with the United States in its war against terror was vitally important to Washington. However, it was not particularly popular at home. Officials of the George W Bush administration paid tribute to Musharraf as a loyal and reliable ally of the US. What these officials failed to note was that the period of Musharraf's time in office witnessed a remarkable resurgence of the Pakistani Taliban. Then there was a series of disasters, not necessarily of Musharraf's making but that nevertheless left ugly stains on his record. For instance, the Red Mosque massacre had disastrous consequences and alienated an important segment of the Pakistani population. Musharraf courted religious fundamentalists to begin with. Later, egged on by the US, he turned against them. And there was the assassination of former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto. That assassination was a turning point. Bhutto's tragic demise accentuated Musharraf's fight with other key figures. Musharraf's confrontation with senior members of the judiciary was yet another faux pas. Now Pakistan's fate is in the balance. Scenes of jubilation with women and men dancing in the streets seem premature. The country is fast sliding on a downward spiral. Musharraf could not hold the helm. Musharraf's claim to leadership turned bogus. His appeal to the nation to pull together was hardly convincing. Musharraf's much diminished powers made matters worse. He had to deal with Islamic militancy along the Afghanistan- Pakistan border, for one. And Pakistanis cannot be expected to forget about his past nine years of iron-fisted rule. He might have exchanged military fatigues for civilian pinstriped suits, but he remained a militaristic autocrat at heart. It is still unclear whether he will be granted immunity from prosecution. Will his people forgive him? The victims of his reign will not forget the injustices and the atrocities. Nor can they forget the shame of it all. There are some Pakistanis who will remember Musharraf as a benign dictator. But his sour relations with the leaders of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) proved critical in his removal from power in the end. The key question now is: Will the fractious coalition hold? That depends on many factors. For example, it is not clear how they will cope with Pakistan's omnipotent intelligence agency, the so-called Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Regarding the apparatus of the state, Musharraf, as chief-of-staff suspended the constitution in November 2007 and jailed judges and lawyers, including Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohamed Chaudhry. The PML-Q -- "Q" for Quaid- e-Azam Mohamed Ali Jinnah, the founder of Pakistan -- aligned itself with the Musharraf regime. Musharraf had many other allies. In the end they didn't come to his rescue. "Musharraf's party performed poorly at the February elections. He should have resigned then and there. His party was thoroughly defeated at the polls," Professor Pervaiz Cheema, a Pakistani political analyst, told Al-Ahram Weekly. "Instead, he tried to compromise with the new ruling clique. That was not a very wise decision, because he was already in an embarrassingly compromising position," Cheema explained. "The new ruling clique was unwilling to accommodate him. Even more importantly, he discovered that the armed forces were not going to support him. Practically everyone deserted him. He then belatedly realised that it was not going to work. He had to step down. Still, he waited until the government urged impeachment. That was the last straw," Cheema noted. Where was the support of his ally in the war on terror, the United States? "Washington is notorious for ditching its trusted allies when it no longer has any use for them, or when they prove to be a liability," Cheema stressed. Meanwhile, the Pakistani Taliban constitutes the gravest threat to political stability in the country. Musharraf had a plan to contain this potent force that directs deadly operations in the mountainous regions. Do the detractors of Musharraf have a comparable plan of action against the Pakistani Taliban? Economic hardship is the other main problem in Pakistan at the moment. The imperative is to abjure antiquated practices such as nepotism and corruption. So why did the former Pakistani president relinquish power at this particular moment? Musharraf chose not to challenge the decision of the courts. He declined to use his presidential powers and declare a state of emergency. Perhaps he is happy enough to hand over the ruins of Pakistan to someone else. Will he choose exile? It would be ironic if he found sanctuary in Saudi Arabia, where the man he ousted once fled. The Pakistani government has established a peaceful way for Musharraf to go. Face-saving, it may not be. As to the fate of Pakistan as a whole, it may be some years before the country becomes truly democratic. Musharraf's departure constitutes a fresh start, but there is no escaping the fact that it is the politicians of Pakistan that cause Pakistan's problems. For his part, Musharraf has expressed his wish to perform umra (a second order pilgrimage to Mecca) during the holy fasting month of Ramadan. Does he intend to stay in Saudi Arabia, a close supporter of his regime and trading partner and benefactor of Pakistan? There are many in Pakistan that want criminal charges brought against Musharraf. But the army is in no mood to see its former head humiliated. For the moment, his fate is uncertain. On the regional front, relations with India are expected to improve. Both Islamabad and Delhi realise that war is no longer an option. The two nuclear powers would prefer to focus on economic development and enhanced trade relations. Musharraf's demise may well speed up the process towards peaceful co-existence between India and Pakistan. The prickly Kashmir question is in all probability going to remain a bone of contention. A democratically elected civilian administration in Islamabad would undoubtedly strengthen the hand of Pakistan in negotiations with India. The two countries would be interacting on an equal footing. The curtailment of the powers of the Pakistani presidency is widely anticipated. Both the PML-N and the PPP are in favour of a ceremonial presidential post with greater powers invested in the post of prime minister. The most likely candidate for the presidency is a consensus or compromise candidate. Pakistan's election commission stipulates that a new president should be sworn in within 30 days of Musharraf's resignation. Among the prospective presidential contenders are MP Faryal Talpur and Speaker of the Lower House of Parliament Fehmida Mirza. Both women hail from the southern province of Sindh, a PPP stronghold. Another possible presidential candidate is Mehmud Khan Achakzai of Baluchistan. Punjab, with 60-65 per cent of Pakistan's population, is by far the most populous province of the country. However, since the prime minister is from Punjab it is recommended that the president hail from one of the three other provinces of the country -- Sindh, Baluchistan and the Northwestern Frontier Province. What will the post-Musharraf Pakistan augur? Eyes in the region and beyond will watch keenly for the answer.
