From parleying to protest -- has Benazir Bhutto decided to join forces with the opposition, asks Graham Usher in Lahore Benazir Bhutto's "long march for democracy" did not set out from Lahore to Islamabad on Tuesday -- a phalanx of 18,000 police in Lahore, including 1,000 ringing her residence, put paid to that. Instead, the former prime minister fired a salvo that rocked Pakistan's political establishment far more than any protest. She declared that any resolution of Pakistan's political crisis was no longer possible through negotiation with its military ruler but required his ouster. "It's time for [General President Pervez Musharraf] to leave," she told the media on a crackly mobile phone from the prison of her house. "He has lost the confidence of the people of Pakistan. He is unable to give the nation a fair election. And he is bent on maintaining and sustaining a dictatorship." Asked whether there were "any circumstances" in which she could serve in a future government led by him, her answer, for once, was categorical. "None," she said. Bhutto's outpourings are little short of seismic. For the last two years she has been in negotiation with Musharraf on a power-sharing arrangement. For the last six months the talks have been steered by the Americans as Washington became increasingly alarmed at Musharraf's plummeting popularity. Since 9/11 the Pakistani leader has been America's principle south Asian ally in the "war on terror", especially against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Washington had turned to Bhutto to deliver the General legitimacy. The deal was simple. In return for the withdrawal of corruption cases against her and a stake in the next government she would throw the immense kudos of her Pakistan People's Party (PPP) behind Musharraf as a civilian president. "It's a loveless marriage, so the General can fight terrorists and the lady can play democracy," said analyst Ahmed Rashid. So what brought on the divorce? It does not appear to have been martial law, imposed by Musharraf on 3 November ostensibly to tame the growing Taliban insurgency on Pakistan's frontier with Afghanistan, though most observers see the move as a ruse by Musharraf to get rid of a truculent judiciary. Last week Bhutto had offered to resume negotiations if Musharraf lifted martial law, restored the constitution and stood down as army chief. And on Sunday she welcomed his pledge of elections in January. Analysts say two things may have spurred Bhutto to up the ante so dramatically. One was Musharraf's announcement that the elections might be held under martial law -- a recipe for wholesale rigging. The other was perhaps the realisation that her attempt to oppose the "dictatorship" while defending the "deal" was costing her support among Pakistanis. Lahore again demonstrated that only PPP cadres were rallying to her call. Other opposition parties, civil society groups and the general public stayed away. "This thing won't take off if we go solo," admitted PPP lawmaker Youssef Raza Gilani. So now Bhutto says she wants to fly in formation. "I would like to consult with all [the parties], including [former prime minister] Nawaz Sharif. I want to build an alliance, a single point agenda for the restoration of democracy. There is a widespread political consensus that General Musharraf must go and the situation in the country will only be aggravated if he stays. Pakistan is a nuclear-armed country and its military is over-extended." Sharif's Muslim League and other opposition parties have welcomed Bhutto's overtures as a "step forward in the struggle for democracy". But given her history of hunting with the hounds while running with the hares few think the rupture is irrevocable, including Bhutto's allies. Analyst Shafqat Mahmoud was once a PPP senator. He has known Bhutto for years. She is capable of "extreme brinkmanship" to improve her position, he says. One thing, though, would prove if she has really turned the page on her tryst with Musharraf. "If she were to join forces with Nawaz Sharif and the Islamic parties and boycott the elections this would be very bad news for Musharraf," he says. "It would wreck his game-plan for the transition to a civilian presidency. He would have to extend martial law, leaving him even more isolated." The other tantalising question is whether Bhutto acted alone or in collaboration with Washington and London. "The deal with Musharraf was always a US-UK plan," says Mahmoud. "Do her statements today mean the deal is off? Have America and Britain also decided that Musharraf's time is up?" For now the tactic of these powers remains pressure rather than removal. On Monday, the Commonwealth threatened to suspend Pakistan unless martial law was lifted by 22 November, a sanction Britain not only endorsed but "played an important part in creating", said British Foreign Secretary David Milliband. And later this week, US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte will visit Islamabad to "try to remove differences between General Musharraf and moderate political forces". He will echo the line that elections cannot be held under martial law. There is a lot of fog around Bhutto's call for Musharraf's overthrow. But one thing is clear. Blockaded in her Lahore "jail", Bhutto has joined the overarching sentiment of her people. Javed Akhtar was one of the few ordinary Pakistanis who turned up in Lahore for the long march to Islamabad. "You guys are backing the wrong man" he said referring to the pro-Musharraf stance of the US and Britain. "He's a one-man show, and one-man shows end. Pakistanis want democracy." (see Editorial p.12& Azmi Bishara p.13)
