Egypt and Jordan join forces to contain deepening inter-Palestinian strife, Dina Ezzat reports The political fate of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, whose term in office legally expires 9 January 2009, is emerging as a pressing concern for many Arab capitals. Fears are that by the time Abbas has to step down his political credentials will be too weak to justify any extension of his mandate absent new presidential elections. Abbas, who has failed to deliver peace, security or even stability under occupation to his people, despite many a promise, is likely to reach 9 January with no final Israeli-Palestinian peace deal, or for that matter a set of principles for such a deal, and with no improved conditions for Palestinians in the West Bank or negotiated reconciliation with Hamas that took over Gaza in June of last year. With Hamas leaders in and outside of the Palestinian territories all but threatening action against Abbas should he overstay his term in office, and with the leaders of Fatah -- the base of the Palestinian Authority (PA) -- issuing threats concerning retaking Gaza by "force", Egyptian and Jordanian leaders yesterday met in Cairo for an extended tête-à-tête on the future of Abbas and the internal Palestinian scene. "Obviously, there are several ideas on the legal position of Abbas as president post-9 January," an advisor to the Palestinian president told Al-Ahram Weekly. According to this advisor, "given that it is impossible to hold presidential elections with Gaza and the West Bank separated, then by virtue of the fact that Abbas is the leader of the Palestine Liberation Organisation [PLO] he is in a position to remain at the head of the PA until the Palestinian territories are unified and it becomes possible to hold elections." Speaking by telephone, a Damascus- based Hamas source protested: "Who said that elections cannot be held? Did Hamas say it would not hold elections in Gaza? And who elected those who sit on the PLO and who said that the PLO is representative of the current Palestinian political scene?" Egyptian officials say that the fate of the Palestinian presidency has been "somehow" dealt with in the round of preparatory Palestinian reconciliation talks that Egyptian General Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman has been conducting over the past weeks. "The potentials for holding presidential and legislative elections as part of the measure to be taken within a reconciliation package are being discussed, among other issues, with the Palestinian factions," one source said. The source added that while this does not mean that the fate of Abbas post-9 January is being directly approached, "it is being indirectly gauged." Egyptian mediators are hopeful, the same source added, to strike an agreement on reconciliation before 9 January by which Hamas and Fatah will agree to establish a new unity government that could work under the rule of Abbas while reconciliation takes root on the ground. After some time, legislative and presidential elections would then be held. Until now, there is no consensus among the factions on this matter. In press statements made on the eve of the launch of talks with Egyptian negotiators, Nabil Shaath, head of the Fatah delegation to Egypt, said that Fatah is willing to agree on the composition of a new government -- mostly technocratic, he suggested. Yet according to informed Egyptian sources, Hamas was not receptive to this idea when it was proposed earlier in Egyptian mediation efforts. "Today, it is unlikely that Hamas would show more flexibility. Hamas feels stronger with the failure of Abbas to deliver a peace deal or to establish a strong presence in the West Bank. In fact, Hamas knows it poses a serious challenge to Abbas in the West Bank," commented the same source. During the Egyptian-Jordanian meeting yesterday, Jordanian King Abdullah, who has been recently opening up to Hamas, was expected to press upon Cairo the need to encourage Abbas to accommodate some of Hamas's demands in relation to establishing a unity government in order to allow for Hamas to give a green light to Abbas to stay in office post-9 January. Egypt and Jordan can jointly offer political support for Abbas to stay in power, but for them to be able to do this there has to be sufficient Palestinian support. This, Cairo and Amman seem aware, would have to include the consent of Hamas. "We know very well that reconciliation is not going to proceed smoothly. Even if we manage to put together representatives of all the 13 factions around the same table sometime around mid- October, that will not be 'the' reconciliation table as such," commented an Egyptian source close to mediation efforts. He added that the increasingly tense statements that Hamas and Fatah officials have been exchanging over the past few days demonstrate that the rift is big and getting bigger, and that what Egypt can at best achieve -- with the help of Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and perhaps Syria also in time -- is containment, not total reconciliation.
