How will the results of the US election affect Egyptian-US ties? Dina Ezzat looks for answers in Cairo, Anayat Durrani in Washington If the overwhelming support expressed for Democrat presidential candidate Barack Obama over John McCain in opinion polls conducted outside the United States is anything to go by, the world is yearning for change. The hope is that the election of Obama will herald a less confrontational US, one more capable of working within an international framework to fix global problems ranging from the climate change to the world financial crisis. In the Middle East, particularly, fingers are being crossed that Obama will introduce new policies to contain the Iranian nuclear stand-off that do not include military confrontation, that he will work to stabilise Iraq as well as other hot spots in the region, and make progress towards the ever elusive Middle East peace. But what will the election of Obama or McCain mean for Egyptian-American relations? "In Egypt the US has found" a good partner and any new administration will work to maintain this partnership, says Margaret Scobey, US ambassador to Egypt. "The anchor that Egypt has been in the region to many US policies will carry us forward to the next 30 years and beyond." Abdel-Moneim Said, director of Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, predicts that the next US administration, whether Democrat or Republican, will pay considerable attention to relations with Egypt. US interests in the region, from stabilising Iraq and safeguarding Arab-Israeli relations to containing Iranian influence in the Gulf, all, he argues, need solid Egyptian-American cooperation. Nabil Fahmi, Egypt's ambassador to Washington for the last nine years, including four of all but overt tension, believes the ability of the next US president to improve ties with Egypt depends not just on attitudes in Washington but on the ability of Cairo to not only set an agenda of priorities for bilateral/ regional cooperation but to explain these to the next US administration and Congress in a manner that foregrounds that it is America's direct political, economic and security interests to cooperate with Egypt. Gamil Matar, director of the Arab Centre for Development and Futuristic Research, warns that even if Obama wins the White House and the Democrats a majority in Congress, the policies of the neocons are not going to vanish overnight. The foreign policy advisory teams of both McCain and Obama are hardly neocon-free zones, say Egyptian diplomats in Washington. Yet still they anticipate a "new realism" on the side of Washington in handling regional affairs. "The next US president, Obama or McCain, is unlikely to make the kind of harsh statements that Bush would once make on internal Egyptian issues," said one diplomat. In other words, the Egyptian government feels that there will be an easier way to handle the inevitable bilateral disagreements over political reform and human rights. Officials in Cairo are convinced that as the new US administration attempts to fix the disarray caused by its predecessor in Iraq it will need "the weight of Egypt to garner Arab and Islamic support". They add that Egypt remains central to any final settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and that given Egypt's "political value" the US administration will be more "sensitive" and less overt in expressing "views over internal affairs". While Egyptian officials accept that already pending legislation in the US Congress seeking to place conditions on US civilian, and even military, aid to Egypt will have to be taken into account by the new administration they argue that fostering cooperation with Cairo means that Congress must be made to understand a non-confrontational approach needs to be taken towards Egypt, allowing the two countries to work towards a middle ground. Since the signing of the Egyptian-Israeli peace deal in 1979 US economic and military aid to Egypt has formed a significant component of bilateral cooperation. Over three decades US assistance to Egypt has totalled more than $50 billion with an average $815 million going towards economic development and $1.3 billion to military aid. In 1998 both countries agreed to a staggered 10-year reduction of economic assistance according to which, in 2009, Egypt stands to receive its regular economic and military aid for next year but beyond that there are no guarantees. Both Washington and Cairo are increasingly keen to free bilateral ties of aid constraints. In both capitals -- though mostly away from official quarters -- the argument is being made that the assistance file has stifled what might otherwise be much more solid cooperation between two countries that share common regional interests even if they sometimes disagree on tactics. A free trade agreement with Egypt -- blocked repeatedly in Washington during the Bush Jr administration -- could offer an alternative to civilian aid. With less than a week to go until the election, Democrats and Republicans are campaigning heavily in key battleground states. Both candidates have promised to turn the economy around and distanced themselves from the Bush administration. In the remaining days both candidates plan to focus on Ohio and Florida, states which have determined the outcome of the last two presidential elections. Obama is currently ahead of McCain by more than seven percentage points according to RealClearPolitics.com's national average of all polls.
