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The perfect storm
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 06 - 11 - 2008

Barack Obama has not only made history by winning the US presidential elections, he has already improved America's image across the globe
A month ago it would have been far-fetched to imagine that Egyptians would be congratulating each other, in the early morning of 5 November, over the victory of 47-year-old African-American Barack Hussein Obama, who has become the 44th president of the United States.
But it happened. Obama was elected and the world watched in awe. America's tarnished image had been transformed overnight. And despite the cynicism many here have long felt towards the American dream the elections had the power to alter sentiments as a black American, with Muslim, third-world roots, made it to the White House.
Throughout his campaign Obama told voters that the 2008 election was "a defining moment in history". He was right. The elections witnessed a record turnout, exceeding the 64 per cent of eligible voters who went to the polls in 1960 to elect John Kennedy.
"Change has come to America," Obama told the country in his first address as president-elect. "If there is anyone out there who doubts that America is a place where anything is possible, who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer."
Leading in all major polls, Obama, a first-term senator from Illinois, went into election day with a seven point lead. He defeated Republican Senator John McCain in a string of battleground states -- Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Iowa. When it became clear he had captured the 270 electoral votes needed for the White House there were tears of joy from his supporters as they chanted "Yes we can". As Al-Ahram Weekly went to press Wednesday, projections showed Obama had secured 349 electoral votes.
The Democrats registered another victory over their Republican opponents in voting for both houses of Congress on Tuesday. The party captured at least five Senate seats from their rivals, increasing their majority in the 100-seat chamber. And with projections still to come in from some states, the Democrats already have the 218 House of Representatives seats needed for a majority.
All 435 seats in the House were up for election, while 35 of the Senate seats were available.
Obama first appeared on the national stage when he gave a keynote address at the 2004 Democratic Party convention, describing himself as "a skinny guy with a funny name and an improbable life story".
Born of a black father from Kenya and a white American mother from Kansas, Obama epitomises the American dream. Raised by his single mother and maternal grandparents, Obama was early instilled with the promise that with hard work and focus anything can be accomplished.
"Historically, of course, this is a momentous election," says Daria Roithmayr, a law professor at the University of Southern California. "Robert Kennedy said in 1968 that he thought that the US was on the right track, that in forty years we could see a black man elected president. Although much racial inequality remains -- in jobs, housing, education -- we have made significant progress with an Obama victory."
As the next president Obama must deal with two wars, a financial crisis, a deficit that could approach $1 trillion, US reliance on foreign oil, a crumbling healthcare system and a tarnished US image overseas.
"An Obama presidency is likely to accomplish two things of significance in the short term. First, he is likely to ensure that the US gets out of Iraq sooner rather than later," predicts Roithmayr. "Second, Obama is likely to move quickly to enact some sort of national healthcare reform."
Obama is well positioned to strengthen the economy and reach out to an international community, many of who hope he can undo the disastrous legacy left by George W Bush.
Although the economic crisis, rather than the US occupation of Iraq, dominated the presidential campaign over the past month, observers here believe it is only a matter of time before the next US administration begins to address the problems of the Middle East. Obama has pledged to withdraw US troops from Iraq within 16 months though the Bush administration, together with Iraqi officials, is still trying to hammer out a new security agreement by the end of the year that would keep US troops in the country until 2011. If that happens Obama will be faced with an obstacle that will stand in the way of his short-term plans for withdrawal.
Obama also campaigned on a troop surge in Afghanistan, where the so-called war on "terror" should, he argued, be taking place. More compelling for Arabs, however, will be his administration's approach to the Arab-Israeli conflict. During his democracy-in-the-Arab-world days, George W Bush pushed for the first parliamentary Palestinian elections in 2006 which the Islamic resistance movement Hamas overwhelmingly won. Since then the occupied Palestinian territories have been reeling under the bitter divide between Hamas and Fatah, the latter backed by Israel and the US, the former still enjoying popular support.
Having inadvertently provided Hamas with electoral legitimacy the US, despite consistent efforts to thwart Hamas's grip on power, has been incapable of changing the facts it created on the ground. In Lebanon, where the Shia Hizbullah resistance group enjoys both power and popularity after defeating Israel in its war on the country in 2006, another delicate balance of power awaits US involvement.
Obama has spoken of plans to pursue diplomatic relations with Iran, North Korea and other members of what Bush termed the "axis of evil". While this brings relief to the Middle East Israel, which incited much of the anti-Iran rhetoric, is undoubtedly uncomfortable.
In the Israeli daily Haaretz Amos Harel wrote that, "to Israeli ears Obama's tone regarding that country's nuclear programme sounds slightly appeasing".
Former Egyptian ambassador to Washington Abdel-Raouf El-Ridi insists Obama as president is good news "for the Arab region".
"We heard him talk in AIPAC and at one point he said Jerusalem will remain a capital for Israel [before retracting]. He certainly won't be the champion of the Palestinian cause but this is a man who wants to stray away from conflicts and war. His approach is one of logic and this is what the region needs."
Obama was born and raised in Hawaii and in Indonesia. He attended Columbia University and became a community organiser in Chicago. He then studied at Harvard Law School and served in the Illinois State Senate.
The new president will be inaugurated outside the US Capitol building in Washington on 20 January.
Reported by Anayat Durrani in Washington and Amira Howeidy in Cairo


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