With the world's hopes riding on him, just how Obama brings change to Washington affects us all, writes Hassan Nafaa* I didn't find Barack Obama's 2008 win surprising in the least. What was surprising to me was Bush's victory in two presidential contests -- in 2000 when he practically stole the elections, and again in 2004 when he won comfortably although he had already proved beyond all doubt his unsuitability for office. Bush won the 2004 elections because of fears that gripped the American people since 9/11, fears that the neocons knew how to exploit to the full. But I had no doubt that the day would come when that same people would see the light. It's not that I am a great believer in the goodwill of Americans. But I know they hate losers. Had Bush achieved a resounding victory in his wars on Afghanistan, Iraq and "terror", the American people would have given him a standing ovation as well as a place of honour in their history books. But now that victory -- in any of these wars -- is out of the question, Bush is out of luck. I knew that the tide was turning when the Democrats won the 2006 midterm congressional elections. Shortly afterwards, a 46- year-old African American called Barack Hussein Obama appeared out of nowhere and decided to run for the primaries of the Democratic Party. Initially, few took him seriously. But soon, the charismatic young politician began to work miracles. By the time he defeated Hillary Clinton in the race for the nomination of the Democratic Party, I had no doubt in my mind. "Many observers," I wrote, "believe that Obama has already gone too far and cannot possibly win the race for the White House. But I believe that the desire for change, which has been simmering in America for a while, is what will keep Obama going. I do not believe that Obama's supporters will accept anything less than total victory. They will keep at it until Obama is in the White House. I believe so. And I would be greatly surprised, disappointed too, if John McCain were to win the November elections." A month before the elections, I published an "open letter to President Obama", saying that, "I know that the campaign is not over yet and that many things can change. But I have no doubt that, barring drastic surprises, you will be the future president of the United States." In hindsight, I was right. In the years 2000 and 2004, Americans voted an ignorant and conceited candidate, a man who was in his youth a failed student and a drunk, into office. For some reason, the neocons backed him with immense zeal. Then in 2008, Americans voted for an African American, the son of a Kenyan Muslim father and a white Protestant American mother. They did so because they needed change. But how can a nation turn around 180 degrees within one decade? Some may say that everything can happen in America. After all, it is a country created on the dead bodies of the original inhabitants, a nation that made its fortune from the sweat of African slaves, a place where great men, JFK and Martin Luther King included, can get shot while someone as inane as George W Bush could become president. But this is only one face of America. The other face of America is totally different. America has fought a civil war to abolish slavery. It has a political system of great vitality and immense capacity for innovation. The other face of America may be still racist and contemptuous of Muslims, but it has given the presidency to a man of African and Muslim origins. I am not about to delve deeper into what makes such a change possible. Nor am I about to suggest that the change will be necessarily beneficial for the Arabs. What I would like to stress is the simple fact that the transition was peaceful. History teaches us that radical changes happen only through violent means, coups and revolutions, etc. And yet a change of tremendous proportions has occurred through the ballot box. For this alone the American political system, regardless of what you may think of it, deserves some credit. Had it not been for the exceptional flexibility and immense adaptability of the US political system, a man such as Obama, however gifted, couldn't have risen so far. The American political system is what shaped Obama's personality, encouraged him, and then pushed him centre-stage, fully groomed for leadership. Some may say that had it not been for the financial crisis, Obama wouldn't have made it to the presidency. I don't think so. The crisis may have given Obama an edge, but victory was already his. America wanted new faces and policies. The whole world hoped for a change in America. Had other nations been allowed to take part in the US elections, they would have voted overwhelmingly for Obama. This is a unique time for America and the world. It may help, therefore, to remember a number of facts that may explain the overwhelming international support afforded to Obama and distaste for Republican policies. One of those facts is that Bush "unsigned" the Treaty of Rome, which established the International Criminal Court. In a move that has all the hallmarks of a pre-meditated plan for aggression, the incumbent president snubbed international law, anticipating charges of war crimes against US soldiers. Bush also withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol, confirming his disregard for the environment and bias to major corporations. The incumbent US president sent American troops abroad to fight wars that conflict with the spirit and letter of international law. A public opinion poll commissioned by the EU two years ago showed that most Europeans believe that the US and Israel pose the greatest threat to world peace and security. And many experts blame the recent financial crisis on irresponsible US practices. Several European officials have called for changes in the entire world financial system, with some urging an overhaul of the Bretton Woods institutions. In short, an overwhelming majority inside and outside the US clamours for change. Can Obama deliver? To answer this question, we have to keep in mind that Obama is the product of US culture and society, and therefore only answerable to US voters and institutions. He is going to defend US interests as perceived by him and his top aides. Also, Obama's core support comes from the middle and lower classes, especially the young. Their interests will shape his interpretation of the US national interest. In addition, Obama's upbringing, education and character suggest a natural inclination to respect law and act calmly under duress. My guess is that Obama's first task will be to tackle the international economic crisis in cooperation with other countries. Such an effort may produce a chain reaction leading to extensive reforms in international organisations, including the UN. The world is not asking much from America -- only that it shows respect for international order. Will Obama restore respect for international law so blatantly violated by his predecessor? The answer to this question is crucial. If America shows respect for international law, other countries would have to do the same -- and this goes for Israel too. * The writer is secretary-general of the Arab Thought Forum, Amman, Jordan.
