For Iran, the competition between two lobbies behind the US president will most decide its coming fortunes, writes Mustafa El-Labbad* Of all countries, Iran was perhaps the one most eagerly awaiting the outcome of the US presidential elections. The Iranians no doubt prayed for the defeat of Republican candidate John McCain and the policies and ideology he stands for. For Tehran, McCain is just another neocon hawk that wants to end their nuclear programme and stymie their regional ambitions. Obama's victory, meanwhile, may lead to a more realistic US policy -- perhaps even to negotiations that would reinforce Iran's regional status. The Iranian preference for a Democratic candidate is a new thing. Up to the US presidential elections of 2000, Tehran has favoured Republican presidents, who are known for their close ties to the oil lobby. Iranian-US relations have been volatile for the last five or six decades. The period between the 1953 coup and the 1979 revolution was one of close cooperation. But since the revolution, relations have ranged between bitter acrimony and utter hostility, with the Americans branding Iran as a member of the "axis of evil" and the Iranians lashing out against the "Great Satan". Despite all differences in ideology, the interests of Washington and Tehran converge on several crucial issues. Yet relations soured since 1979, in a large part because of Israel. Iran has vigorously opposed peace efforts between Arab countries and Israel, regarding an Israeli-led Middle East as a threat to its regional role. Likewise, Israel has scuttled every attempt at rapprochement between Tehran and Washington, more vigorously so after the invasion of Iraq. Under Menachem Begin, Israel sought cooperation with countries situated on the outskirts of the Arab world, such as Iran, Turkey and Ethiopia. Now Israel is trying to get India on its side in an attempt to encircle Iran, which has proved more stubborn in its resistance to Israeli policies than many Arab countries. Tehran, meanwhile, is rallying opposition to the Greater Middle East from Iraq to Palestine. The success of Iran's hard-line approach, some say, may eventually force Washington to seek some formula of understanding with Tehran. The Americans, for their part, have only two options: strike at Iran or talk. Any hopes Washington may have entertained about changing the Iranian regime from within must have evaporated. Iranian opposition groups are simply incapable of using the regional and international situation to undermine the regime. And with George Bush about to leave office, hopes for a double containment of both Iraq and Iran are fading. By pulverising the Taliban and then overthrowing Saddam, Washington has boosted the Iranian regime. For the first time since Iraqi independence, Iranian supporters sit in force at the Iraqi parliament. If anything, this should provide the Americans with additional motive to talk to Tehran. And the Iranians cannot wait. Their ideological opposition to Washington is only a way of upping the ante in a game of geopolitical rivalry. Efforts to bring about a rapprochement in US-Iranian relations are already underway. The oil lobby in the US is a main sponsor of the American-Iranian Republican Council, a group run by expatriate Iranians with close ties to the regime as well as former and current US officials. Since its formation in 1997, the council has been working on various initiatives for cooperation between the two countries. In any future talks, the Americans would urge Iran to take a more soft position on Israel. Iran would be asked to tone down its rhetoric to the level of that adopted by Pakistan or Malaysia. In other words, Tehran would be expected to criticise Israel on occasion, but generally refrain from confronting it or instigating allied groups against it. If such an arrangement is worked out, Iran is likely to redefine its national security, focussing on the Gulf and Caspian Sea rather than the entire Middle East. Currently, the main obstacle for political settlement between Washington and Tehran is Israel and its supporters in the US military-industrial complex, while the main advocates for a rapprochement are members of the American oil lobby. The Iranians may be rooting for Obama, but the future of their ties with Washington is not up to the president alone, but to the pressure groups that influence his opinion on foreign policy. * The writer is director of the Cairo-based East Centre for Regional and Strategic Studies.
