With Israel launching a brutal attack against Gaza, fear in Lebanon has mounted that a military confrontation will be triggered along the country's southern border, Raed Rafei reports In the summer of 2006, while Israel was battling the Palestinian militant organisation Hamas in Gaza, Hizbullah captured two Israeli soldiers sparking a devastating Israeli war against Lebanon. Some observers believe, however, that the current juncture might be different. The latest declarations of Hizbullah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, show that Hizbullah is so far exercising self- restraint while remaining alert for the possibility of a second round of combat with Israel. "Hizbullah's position has been rather calm and reassuring with respect to Lebanon's implication in the current conflict," said Georges Nassif, a Beirut-based political analyst and columnist in An-Nahar newspaper. "Nasrallah limited himself to reminding the Lebanese that Israel might turn its weapons against their country and so vigilance was required during this period," he added. Nasrallah has focussed instead, in his recent speeches, on galvanising the Arab masses for the support of Gaza, channelling popular anger against Arab leaders, notably Egypt, which he accused not only of silent acquiescence but also of collusion with Israel. Hizbullah's leader spoke on two occasions in recent days, addressing crowds from an undisclosed location via giant screens for security reasons. In his first speech on Sunday evening in Beirut's southern suburbs to mark the beginning of Ashura, Nasrallah insinuated that his group would not actively provoke Israel into a military confrontation and would rather adopt a defensive strategy. "Lebanon has to be cautious and not to underestimate what is happening around it," he said. "I have asked the brothers in the resistance in the South specifically to be alert and cautious because we are facing a criminal enemy and we don't know the magnitude of the conspiracies being woven around us." Nasrallah denied any responsibility for eight Katyusha rockets discovered on Thursday along the border before the Israeli raid on Gaza. The rockets were said to be directed and ready to be launched against Israel. He even suggested that Israel might have placed these missiles to have an alibi to strike Lebanon. The incident had alarmed the Lebanese that there might be attempts to implicate their country in another war with Israel. In a visit to the South Saturday, Lebanese President Michel Suleiman warned against involving Lebanon in the conflict. "Everybody should respect Lebanon and its sovereignty and should not turn it into a platform for launching rockets, especially after the deployment of the army in the South," he said. "Lebanon is an oasis of mutual recognition for everybody and not an arena for conflicts." In the aftermath of the attacks on Gaza, Lebanon's army has significantly raised its readiness in the South, running more patrols along the border. Some observers believe that Hizbullah currently has its hands tied when it comes to entering in a showdown with Israel. "The deployment of the Lebanese army and of international peacekeepers in the South make the situation more complicated than in 2006," said An-Nahar 's analyst, Nassif. "In the current conjuncture, I don't think Hizbullah feels it is in its interest to cause an Israeli incursion into Lebanon," he said. Nassif argued that Hizbullah is more pressured today at the internal level to stay self- restrained, partly because Lebanon is still paying the price of its last war with Israel and because of a larger internal opposition to another military confrontation. He added that ahead of crucial parliamentary elections in the spring, Hizbullah would not want to risk taking the blame for leading the country into another war. "Hizbullah is not an opposition party anymore. Its presence in the government is very strong and its steady relations with the president and the army make it more an integral part of power in the country," Nassif said. In his second speech in front of tens of thousands of Hizbullah supporters gathered Monday for the support of the Palestinians, Nasrallah focussed on Lebanon's political role in stopping the attacks against Gaza. He addressed Suleiman, urging him to push for a more active Arab role in the conflict and more specifically to press the Arab League to convene urgently. "The president is requested to play a central role and make his brave voice heard in support of the oppressed Palestinian people," he said. But Lebanon's role was not the main focus of Nasrallah. His speeches were largely addressed to Arab masses and Arab governments. "What is the nation's responsibility today? Arab peoples should press their governments to take action, even if this leads to facing their regimes with their chests," he said. He saved his harshest criticism for Egypt which he held responsible for the future of events in Gaza. He called on Egypt to open its border crossing with Gaza, stating that this would decisively help Hamas win the current battle against Israel. By capitalising on his victorious resistance to the Israelis in 2006, Nasrallah tried to appear as a mentor to the Palestinian people in their current distress. "Hizbullah is using its credibility and political clout to play a vital role today in mobilising the Arab people," said Walid Sharara, a Beirut-based political analyst and Hizbullah expert. Observers still caution, however, that Hizbullah could quickly become a full player in a military confrontation with Israel in case of a wide ground invasion, for instance. "The situation in the South is currently under control, but it could flare up quickly if Israel's operation against Gaza takes bigger dimensions," said Nassif.
