Will Israel court war with Iran? With the right wing in ascendance anything is possible, argues Khalil El-Anani* The success of Israel's ultra right brings worse tidings than the collapse of the peace process. Israel's intransigence, compounded by two wars in Lebanon and Gaza, has divided the region and undermined the position of its moderates. It would be an over- simplification to see the outcome of Israel's recent elections as a victory for the ultra right. The boundaries between the Israeli right and left have been eroding steadily since 2000. Yet the rise of Israel's far right has dealt another blow to the achievement of a peaceful settlement. Any hopes that may have been revived by the advent of a moderate US administration are now meaningless. The region is now teetering on the verge of disaster for a war involving Israel and Iran would undermine whatever stability the region has left. The rise of Israel's right seems to complete the circle Sharon started a few years back. What Sharon did was remarkable by any standards. He managed to toss aside any chances of peace while at the same time radicalising the Palestinians. Since then the Arab scene has changed steadily, with radicals gaining on moderates every step of the way. The regional equilibrium between the Arabs and Israel has shifted, and Israel no longer seems interested in peace. Rather than have peace with the Arabs, why not have a war with Iran? Arabs and the Palestinians have every right to claim they don't have an Israeli partner in peace. But when was the last time they had one? With the Palestinians divided and isolated the peace option seems to be increasingly a thing of the past. We are back to square one, more specifically to May 1996 when Benyamin Netanyahu first came to power, edging ahead of Labour by a margin of 0.5 per cent. The Americans had hoped Peres would win, if only to salvage the Oslo process from a sad fate. But the real loser in those elections was former president Bill Clinton who had been hoping for an end of the Arab-Israeli conflict before leaving the White House. In a recent book Martin Indyk, former US ambassador to Israel, says that Netanyahu's victory was Clinton's worst dream come true. Ironically, whenever a moderate US government comes to power Israel's ultra right manages to make it look inept while radicalising the Palestinians with extraordinary deftness. Obama will not be able to move ahead with peace. The new administration is likely to spend less time as peace broker than keeping Iran from being drawn into war. Should Iran's right wing win the June 2009 elections things will get even murkier. The US would then have to forget about the Palestinians and focus on Iran. It is uncanny how the right wing can mess things up. Had it not been for the Islamic right wing (Al-Qaeda and the assorted factions of mujahideen ), the American right wing would not have had the chance to pulverise the region beyond recognition. Had it not been for the American right wing Israel, under Ariel Sharon, wouldn't have been able to walk all over the Palestinians and get Yasser Arafat out of the way. Had it not been for Israel's right wing Hamas wouldn't be there today. And had it not been for Hamas where would Netanyahu be? The right wing keeps the right wing in business. The Israelis and the Iranians seem to have benefited from the current chaos, at least for now. There is a chance, however, they may push their luck and get into a war. This is something that worries both the Americans and the Arabs. Obama cannot possibly broker an Israeli-Iranian deal unless it is part of a grand regional arrangement the details of which no one has figured out yet. And let's not forget that no American president would sacrifice good relations with Israel, and by implication the Jewish lobby, to keep the Iranians quiet. The ones who most need to do something at the moment are the region's moderates -- Egypt, Jordan and Mahmoud Abbas. They have to take a stand on Israel just as they took a stand on Palestinian radicals three years ago. The moderates cannot have peace, that much is obvious. But perhaps they can yet stop Israel from embarking on an insane war with Iran, the consequences of which would be unspeakable. Tensions are rising. We've just seen Israel embarrass Egypt in public while the latter was busy talking to Hamas. If not out of concern for Palestinian rights, then out of concern for Egypt's own national security, Cairo has to think of what to do with the Israelis. Jordan is caught between Israel, Hamas and Arab Israelis, also known as the 1948 Palestinians. For the entire duration of the Gaza war Jordan sat on the fence. Anything it could have said or done might have made things worse. But there is more trouble ahead. The Israelis may yet be hoping to deport their Arab citizens to the West Bank or even Jordan. For the Mahmoud Abbas government the future is bleak. With Israel offering nothing by way of a credible peace, Fatah and the PLO risk losing not only their political backing, but whatever credibility they have retained. Arab moderates are the biggest losers of the current game. They have to rethink their ties with Israel, for the latter is not only failing to advance towards peace but is courting another war, this time with Iran. * The writer is a political analyst with Al-Siyasa Al-Dawliya magazine published by Al-Ahram.
