Sanctions, no S-300 missiles and now Stuxnet. Is this a declaration of "soft" war, asks Amani Maged It appears that military force, which the West has often threatened in confronting Iran's nuclear programme, is not the only option left in Washington's arsenal. Iran was recently confronted by two new developments simultaneously, which experts interpret as the West waging a "soft" war on Iran. The first was the Stuxnet virus which attacked Iran's industrial sector, but which analysts believe was targeting nuclear installations as part of an electronic war which damaged more than 30,000 computers in Iran with the complex worm. Some media reports stated that the virus attacked nuclear plants at Bushehr and Natanz, but Iranian officials denied the reports saying that the virus has not caused any real damage and did not infect the two reactors. Although the effect of the virus is limited according to officials, Tehran protested the incident loudly. Some called it an electronic war against Iran and quoted Western experts who pointed the finger at the US and Israel as the perpetrators. Information technology officials at Iran's Ministry of Industry accused a foreign country of being behind the attack without naming which one. Technology experts assert that it is difficult to find the actual perpetrator in such wars, but considering the complexity of the attack, it is more likely to be state rather than individual piracy. The New York Times last year reported that former US president George Bush had approved new experimental efforts to control electronic, computer and other systems feeding Iran's nuclear programme, according to current and former officials. Also, there were reports that the US is testing the Pentagon's electronic warfare capabilities after they were overhauled. Nonetheless, several US officials have denied these reports. Electronic warfare is not a new phenomenon on the world stage. Russia was accused of waging an electronic war on Estonia in 2007 after the WWII tribute to the unknown Russian soldier was removed from downtown Tallinn. Moscow also reportedly used electronic warfare against Georgia during their war in 2008. Many experts note that the US and China, as well as several other countries, carry out acts of piracy targeting sensitive national grids of rivals. An internal report issued by Iran's Revolutionary Guard described an "atmosphere of war" in the region, with the recent arrival of the aircraft carrier USS Truman in the waters of the Gulf. CNN's website reported that Richard Clarke, who served on the White House National Security Council for 11 years, said that the US "is preparing for an electronic war by planting viruses and Trojan Horses and secret codes in the energy, defence and transportation systems of hostile states," in reference to Iran and North Korea. Clarke added that by planting these electronic "trapdoors", the US is capable of "paralysing its enemies in any war by attacking their infrastructure at sensitive points." He added that the US is not the only country with this capability, listing more than six countries which possess similar programmes which can penetrate electronic fortresses of hostile states, without anyone being able to track them. This new electronic warfare, which some experts believe will escalate, is not the only manifestation of the "soft" war on Iran. Analysts describe Russia's refusal to export the S- 300 system to Iran as part of this soft war, but they did not connect the two incidents directly. Russia decided that exporting missiles to Iran -- after the two sides had signed an agreement three years ago allowing Iran to buy five S-300 MUI missile batteries at a cost of $800 million from Russia -- "falls under the category of extreme force as indicated in the agreement". This upset the Iranians who viewed it as a violation of a done deal. While the deal was shelved in June, after the US Security Council adopted new sanctions against Iran restricting arms exports, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev only signed the sanctions decree last week to prevent the sale of S-300 missiles to Iran to show that Moscow respects Security Council resolutions. Experts note that months ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that international sanctions against Iran do not contradict the S-300 missile deal, because these are "defence weapons". However, the office of French President Nicolas Sarkozy said that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin assured Sarkozy during a recent meeting in Paris that Moscow will freeze handing over these missile systems to Iran. Some observers believe that Iran has already received the technology used to manufacture the hi-tech defence systems from Russia, that Iran's Defence Minister Ahmed Wahidi declared that his country is seeking to achieve self-sufficiency in missile production and that it is now on its way to designing long-range missiles for traditional air defence. Iran's Air Force Chief General Hassan Shah Safi said that Iran has already modernised one of its "strategic" Russian-made MiG-29 fighter jets, and has tested it years after it was out of commission. Experts believe this technical capability must have been relayed by the Russians. It is unlikely that Moscow will abandon Tehran, because the former needs the Iranian card, but it will try to keep its relations with Iran without antagonising the West. Iran is Russia's gateway to the Gulf and warm waters, but at the same time Russia shares many interests with the West and is being pressed hard by the US. Hence, at times Russia will appease the West as it did now, and at others it will no doubt support Iran, say, by supplying fuel for the Bushehr nuclear reactor which was opened recently. The worm and the missile cancellation are either a declaration of a soft war against Iran, or part of the West's pressure on Tehran to arrive at the best terms when discussing Iran's nuclear programme in the future. The coming days will reveal which is more true.
