United Nations - New York - Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the only head of state to attend the 2010 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in New York. The Iranian President's presence at the NPT conference was a big surprise. Attendance had been limited to foreign ministers and Manouchehr Mottaki, Iran's Foreign Minister, was supposed to lead Iran's delegation. Ahmadinejad's presence at the conference caught the attention of the media worldwide, leading to a dramatic increase of the event's press coverage. The general expectation was for the Iranian President to use the trip to New York as an opportunity to lobby Security Council members for support against a new round of sanctions or to continue his typical rhetoric against Israel and Zionism. But in his speech on Monday, the Iranian President neither addressed nor protested against the ongoing debate over the imposition of newer, tighter economic sanctions against Iran, and he only briefly talked about Israel. So why did Iran's head of state bother to attend this lower-level UN conference? Iranians live their daily lives in the shadow of a new round of international sanctions. But what they worry about most is the possibility of a direct confrontation between Iran and the United States – an option which, Washington consistently maintains, remains on the table. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) recent military manoeuvres in the Persian Gulf and the IRGC's repeated public statements about its readiness and capacity to defend Iran's nuclear sites are clear manifestations of the regime's widespread alarm. The real threat to the survival of the Islamic Republic is a war. A new war against Iran would be nothing like Iraq's 1980 invasion of the country, which united the Iranian nation in its defending itself against Saddam Hussein's Baathist regime. Ahmadinejad's Government and the weakened legitimacy of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have left the Islamic regime with little support from the Iranian people. A potential military confrontation with any Western power could very well mean the end of Iran's Islamic leadership. Sanctions do not bother Iran's Islamic elite. The only major problem for the Islamic Republic is that Iran's file remains under consideration by the Security Council. Though sanctions targeting Iran's oil and gas revenues have been effective, their impact has indirectly facilitated the expansion of IRGC's power throughout the country, allowing the Revolutionary Guard to have a hand in anything from imports and exports to providing internal security and crushing public demonstrations. Sanctions won't significantly hurt them. But if a new Security Council resolution declares that Iran's nuclear programme is not for peaceful purposes and threatens world stability, then Chapter seven of the UN Charter could be applied to Iran, allowing the possibility of military action against the Islamic Republic. Not once in any of his speeches on Monday did Ahmadinejad address the new round of sanctions currently being debated by the Security Council. He also refrained from using his famously bellicose rhetoric against world powers. President Ahmadinejad began his speech at the UN with the assertion that “Iran is a member of the NPT,” and ended by alluding to one of Iran's most famous poets, Saadi, who called on human beings to like each other. What has preoccupied President Ahmadinejad and Iran's politicians – from Khamenei to senior Revolutionary Guard commanders – is the repeated threats Iran has received from the United States of a potential military confrontation. No-one in the Middle East would like to witness another war in this critical region, especially between Iran and the United States. Most of Iran's neighbours support dialogue and diplomacy with Iran to resolve differences over the country's controversial nuclear programme. It appears that the Iranian President's goal is to prevent the imposition of more sanctions and eliminate the possibility of a foreign invasion by involving in the negotiation process Iran's regional neighbours, whose stability and economic prosperity are ultimately entwined with the Islamic Republic's. President Ahmadinejad's repeated assertions on Monday that the US is threatening Iran reflect the regime's fear that there is a real possibility of war. And it is becoming evident that the Islamic Republic does not want a military confrontation.
