Asmaa El-Husseini reflects on the busy work of electoral coalitions and the broader issues of destiny If you were fated like I was to witness two scenes that took place a few days ago in the Friendship Hall, one of Khartoum's largest event spaces, you would have been shocked. The two scenes were only separated by a few hours, and together they summed up the sharp polarisation and the air of dispute that are causing tension in Sudan today. In the first scene, which took place in the evening, Sudanese opposition parties met in Friendship Hall in the open session of the third conference of the Umma Party, which is led by Mubarak Al-Fadil Al-Mahdi. This party is a split of the National Umma Party led by Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi, who was an aide to the Sudanese president and then left the government to join the opposition ranks. In addition to these parties were representatives of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), a ruling partner with the National Congress Party (NCP) led by Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir. These opposition parties, including the SPLM, stridently attacked the NCP and what they called its exclusionary policies. The next morning, only hours after this meeting, the hall was filled again, this time with crowds from another party that split from the Umma Party and calls itself the National Umma Party, led by Abdullah Massar, an advisor to President Al-Bashir. He had split from the original National Umma Party with Mubarak Al-Mahdi and then split from him as well. The National Party is described by its adversaries as a creation of the NCP, and in contrast to those gathered the night before, the voices of this meeting's participants rose in slogans supporting the position of President Al-Bashir and opposing the International Criminal Court: "Go, go, oh Bashir... We're your soldiers, we will build!" This conference had a large number of attendees from among the NCP leadership and the parties allied with it, including a significant number of advisors to the president and his ministers. In addition to reflecting the division among Sudanese parties that affects even the Umma Party, these two scenes seemed as though they were taking place in different countries. There was nothing shared between them other than some bombastic slogans that everyone in Sudan has come to understand in their own way. Democratic transformation, for example, is seen by some supporters of the ruling NCP as preparation for gaining new legitimacy through the upcoming elections scheduled for next February. They see this as a means of confronting the attack on the legitimacy of the party and its leader by international forces, fronted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) with its warrant for the arrest of President Al-Bashir. In contrast, some members of the opposition won't recognise any democratic transformation that doesn't remove the NCP from rule in Sudan. Yet the benefit of each approach will remain doubtful in Sudan's current conditions if they continue to try to exclude others. What is alarming in the speech of the ruling NCP and its opponents this time around is that it coincides with serious domestic and international challenges that Sudan has no control over. It also coincides with preparations for the imminent elections that everyone is readying for in one way or another. Alliances are being sought out even though many doubt that the elections will be held given Sudan's current circumstances. The leaders of the opposition and the SPLM spoke of the necessity of coordinating to counter the NCP, and this coordination made significant headway in the following days through intensive meetings that have apparently alarmed the NCP. A number of NCP leading members have repeatedly stressed that it is capable of winning any future elections and have described the threats of the opposition and the SPLM to boycott the elections as an expression of those who have lost hope and confidence in their ability to compete to begin with. They have further said that these forces are seeking to cooperate with foreign forces to topple the NCP but that such a move could only take place through elections. The elections had once been a source of hope for getting out of the current crisis, but in the current conditions they could become a tool for dividing Sudan, especially given the suspicions raised in disputes over the results of the census. The SPLM and the Darfur movements have raised doubts over the census results and stressed that any elections based on them would be invalid. Leaders of the ruling NCP consider this an attempt to discredit the elections, and some fear that the violence that occurred in Kenya could be repeated in Sudan if appropriate measures are not planned for them, including a census that carefully determines geographic districts. There is also Darfur and the related Sudan-Chad escalation that is reaching a climax. Even while the Doha initiative and mediators are continuing efforts to reach an agreement between the Sudanese government and the Justice and Equality Movement in Darfur -- which launched a daring raid on Khartoum a year ago -- and while attempts are ongoing to bring together the presidents of Sudan and Chad, it appears that the situation on the ground is growing more complicated. The Darfur crisis will not be solved except through a comprehensive solution to all the Sudanese issues and international and regional concurrence on this solution. And also looming in this context is the problem of the ICC, which is waiting for the UN Security Council to make a decision next month on the arrest of the Sudanese president. Sudan's political forces must also consider the country's destiny, including democratic transformation and the referendum on the right to self- determination in the South in two years time. The economic plight related to the global economic crisis and the low prices of oil has only exacerbated the tribal violence in southern Sudan, with worse to come. There are doubts, fears and accusations coming from the SPLM concerning its partner in rule, the NCP, and its attempts to crack the SPLM's ranks and incite unrest in the South. Participants in the two Friendship Hall scenes will hardly remain constant in their positions until the elections are held if matters continue as currently orchestrated. The SPLM, that opponents to the NCP are depending on to form an active member of their ranks, appears to be in an odd situation since it is both in the government and part of the opposition at one and the same time. As a partner to the NCP, it has gained experience in both war and peace. The SPLM warred with it for years starting when the NCP assumed power in 1989, and yet it alone of the opposition signed a peace agreement with the NCP in 2005. The two parties differ from each other ideologically, though it appears that the SPLM will continue to oscillate in its positions, principles and interests. Some members hold that there are no interests inimical to the NCP, while others are keen to yield to it lured by the benefits they can gain thereby. Others still raise the slogan of "The South first" as they anticipate the referendum to raise the flag of an autonomous South. The Sudanese Umma Party led by Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi remains the site of conflict between the NCP and the political forces in opposition to it, for each side wants to draw it into its ranks. The NCP wants to carry through with the shelved national mutual consent agreement they signed together last year, while Juba is awaiting a visit from its leader to mend what was ruined between the two sides over the last few years. Meanwhile, the Democratic Unionist Party also continues to be preoccupied with internal disputes. It appears that the chasm has widened between its primary faction led by Mohamed Othman Al-Merghani and the SPLM, following the death of former SPLM leader John Garang, who was close to Al-Merghani. The Sudanese political forces need to attain accord in order to be able to confront the issues of destiny that are greater than all these alliances, which are unlikely to resolve the current crises and which may in fact cause further harm. And here arises the importance of the call to form a national accord government on which there is true mutual consent so as to deliver Sudan safely through the current crisis and reach a solution in Darfur, securing justice, implementing the South agreement and overseeing the upcoming elections. This is undoubtedly safer and less costly than the solutions being studied by some opponents to the NCP via the ICC and the UN Security Council, or those being considered by members of the NCP itself through striking a deal with the international community.
