A nuclear weapons free world is within grasp if concerted action is taken at all levels, write Gareth Evans and Yoriko Kawaguchi The Middle East has long been a testing ground for achieving the ultimate goals of peace. In 1978, Egyptian president Anwar El-Sadat and Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin sat down with president Jimmy Carter at Camp David and agreed on a historic framework for peace in the Middle East. If nothing else, Camp David is an example of collaboration between former enemies resulting in breakthroughs of the kind needed for nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament today. Since that historic event, Egypt has courageously undertaken further initiatives, most prominently, its decision to embark on the difficult road to nuclear non-proliferation. The Sadat government's decision to ratify the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1981 was a defining moment for Egypt's nuclear programme. Soon after, with the 1982 entry into force of its International Atomic Energy Agency Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (INFCIRC 302), Egypt's facilities were brought into the verification and inspection components of the non- proliferation regime. This reflected a clear commitment by Egypt to non-proliferation with full transparency under the international safeguards system of the IAEA. Egypt, today, is a member in good standing of the NPT and the leading proponent of establishing a zone free of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the Middle East. While Egypt has consistently led efforts to establish a Middle East zone free of nuclear weapons (and since 1990 zone free of WMDs), there have been roadblocks along the way. It is our strong hope that the Middle East peace process can produce results that will allow the region to address the issues of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation from a new perspective. The prospect of nuclear threats in the Middle East is deeply disturbing for the security of all states, and has the potential to initiate an arms race that will further destabilise the region, and divert resources from social and economic uses. It is highly encouraging that global momentum is building to ensure that the 2010 NPT review does not succumb to indifference and lost opportunities. There have been a range of appeals from current and former world leaders and nuclear decision-makers urging a renewed effort to move the nuclear disarmament agenda forward: for new cuts to nuclear arsenals, bringing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) into force, and to immediately commence negotiation of a treaty to end the production of fissile material for weapons use. It is highly significant that President Barack Obama has chosen to convene this month a special meeting of the UN Security Council on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. The International Commission on Nuclear Non- proliferation and Disarmament, which we have the privilege to co-chair, seeks to contribute to this global effort to help build a new momentum towards reconsideration of the role of nuclear weapons in international relations and eventually to eliminate them. Let there be no misunderstanding, this is not an issue that we can allow to be pushed aside by new threats, be they concerns over the global financial crisis or the prospect of pandemics and climate change. The nuclear threat is a clear and present danger that must be addressed in parallel. After a decade of neglect the issue demands priority attention from our political leaders worldwide. Nuclear weapons could still be the biggest risk of all to the peace and stability of our world: nuclear weapons arsenals are still measured in the tens of thousands, and the possibility remains that more countries will acquire them, while the danger of their deliberate or accidental use by states or non-state terrorist actors is ever present. Even if nuclear warhead numbers are well down from the Cold War, over 23,000 remain, nearly all with destructive potential many times greater than the bombs that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Thousands of weapons remain on high alert, ready to be launched within minutes. NPT nuclear weapon states have made only limited steps towards reducing stockpiles, notwithstanding the NPT's ultimate goal of a nuclear weapon free world. That is why we, the Commission, and indeed the international community, were greatly encouraged by the results of the April summit between President Dmitri Medvedev and President Obama. The agreement to pursue a deal on cutting nuclear weapons that would replace the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) should kick-start movement on broader disarmament and non-proliferation measures. Leadership from Russia and the United States and other major nuclear-armed states is crucial if momentum for nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament is to be regenerated. There must be a buy-in from many other international players as well. The moment has to be seized by governments and civil society activists around the world, working to a common action agenda that is both idealistic and pragmatic. In order to identify such an agenda and to energise a high-level global political debate on these issues, Australian Prime Ministers Rudd of Australia and then Japanese Prime Minister Fukuda of Japan launched last year the International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament. The Commission is independent of governments but its highly distinguished membership is drawn from both nuclear-armed and non-nuclear armed states around the world. It is addressing the inter-related issues of nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation and the future of civil nuclear energy. The Commission has held meetings and regional consultations in many capitals, and aims to produce a handbook of practical and clearly written recommendations as a guide to policymakers in the run up to the May 2010 NPT Review Conference and beyond. As co-chairs of the Commission, we are honoured to be joined in this endeavour by an outstanding panel of individuals, including former heads of state and government and globally recognised specialists, who have agreed to serve as commissioners, and by the equally impressive group of Advisory Board members and associated research centres who are contributing to the Commission's work. We have also had the privilege of benefiting from the expert understanding and advice of a leading Egyptian adviser on disarmament and nuclear issues and an Advisory Board member to the Commission, Ambassador Nabil Fahmy. While the Commission's immediate focus will be on the May 2010 conference that will review the architecture of the world's key defence against the spread of nuclear weapons, the NPT, it will look beyond that conference. It will grapple with the pressing issue of engaging countries that have never joined the NPT (India, Pakistan and Israel), and those who have either walked away from it or whose commitment to it remains uncertain. All of them are critical if we are to move towards the elimination of nuclear weapons. While no final decisions have yet been taken by the Commission about any of its detailed recommendations, the general approach is to identify a three-phased action plan. The first task is to spell out all the steps that can and should be taken in the short term, to around 2012, to build initial momentum. These include making a success of next year's NPT Review Conference, bringing the CTBT into force, negotiating a convention to ban the further production of fissile material for nuclear weapons purposes, achieving significant reductions in actual weapons numbers, and achieving broad consensus on the future course of disarmament negotiations. The second part of the action plan will involve identifying a series of steps, through to around 2025, by which nuclear weapons would be reduced to minimal numbers, the dangers of their accidental use would be eliminated, and a nuclear doctrine would be agreed and applied dramatically limiting occasions for their deliberate use. The third task is to identify how the final step could then be taken, of moving from such a "minimalist vantage point" to a world without any nuclear weapons at all. In recognition of Egypt's pivotal regional and global role in matters of international security, the Commission will be in Cairo this month, for a Middle East Regional Meeting, held in consultation with the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, to consult with nuclear and strategic experts from government, academia and industry from a wide scope of Middle East countries; we look forward greatly to hearing regional perspectives on the full range of issues on which the Commission is working. We expect that this will be a very productive event, which will make a significant contribution to the movement for a safer and saner nuclear future that is now at last -- after so many years of inaction -- starting to emerge around the world. Gareth Evans is former foreign minister of Australia and was, until June 2009, president of the International Crisis Group. Yoriko Kawaguchi is former foreign minister of Japan and a member of the Upper House of Parliament, House of Councillors. They are co-chairs of the International Commission on Nuclear Non- Proliferation and Disarmament (ICNND).
