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Lebanon's new test
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 12 - 11 - 2009

With a new coalition government finally in place is Lebanon any closer to national reconciliation? Omayma Abdel-Latif reports from Beirut
After five months of painstaking negotiation Lebanon finally has a national unity government. Disputes over the distribution of ministerial portfolios among the Christian forces of March 14 almost threatened to delay the announcement of the new cabinet, with prime minister designate Saad Al-Hariri struggling until the last minute to reconcile his allies.
The withdrawal of the Kataaib (Phalanges) minister from first cabinet meeting reflects the extent of the still simmering tensions within the March 14 coalition. Al-Hariri has himself described the government as "an exception to the rule".
"In any parliamentary democracy," he argued, a national coalition government is always exceptional and should not be viewed as establishing any kind of constitutional precedent. "It is that the present situation necessitates that we have this government and that dialogue should govern our relationships."
Of 30 ministerial portfolios 15 went to the majority, 10 to the opposition and five were distributed at the discretion of the president. These last five cabinet seats were divided among the main sects producing a Shia (Adnan Al-Sayed Hussein), a Sunni (Adnan Al-Qasar), a Maronite -- Ziad Baroud who remains at the Interior Ministry --, an Orthodox -- Elias Al-Murr who retains his position as defence minister -- and a Catholic minister. The 15+10+5 formula should, it is hoped, restore the president's role as arbiter between the majority and minority.
The national coalition government follows five years of political polarisation and a rising tide of sectarian tensions as well as an economic crisis that has left 28 per cent of Lebanese families living on less than $1 a day, yet during all the wrangling over portfolios issues of substance barely got a look in beyond a few anti-corruption and pro- reform slogans raised by the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). The fiercest battle was reserved for who would get a place at the cabinet table, not what they would do once they got there.
One of the greatest challenges facing the government is how to bridge the deepening communal rifts that have resulted from sectarian mobilisation, particularly among the country's Sunni and Shia population. In this it could be helped by changes in the regional political scene.
To depict Lebanese political rivalry today as one pitting a unified majority against a coherent minority is invalid. Splits within the majority ranks have been amplified by wrangling over the share of portfolios and, more dramatically, by Druze leader Walid Jumblatt's exit from March 14. Jumblatt, whose party received three cabinet seats, insisted in an interview with Al-Akhbar newspaper on Wednesday that he was "neither with this camp -- March 8 -- nor with the other -- March 14".
"I will not side with one camp against the other in the cabinet and my bloc will vote according to the issues on the table," he said.
Recently Jumblatt has been critical of his Christian allies in March 14, describing some of them as being on the "isolationist right".
Observers see Jumblatt's statement as possibly opening the door to a new alliance, a "Lebanese third way" as one commentator put it, bringing Jumblatt together with the president.
Major cabinet decisions requite a two-third majority (20) to pass. Others need just a simple majority of 16, ie half plus one.
Dependent as always on outside arbitration, this government could not have seen the light of day without the ongoing reconciliation efforts between Syria and Saudi Arabia.
"Such a strange country [Lebanon]," Jumblatt told Al-Akhbar. "For us to have a government we need a Syrian-Saudi agreement and Iranian-Turkish dialogue."
Al-Hariri is expected to pay a visit to Damascus soon though no date has been set yet.
But the role played by foreign actors in political rivalry in Lebanon is sometimes exaggerated. Internal rivalry, between Christian forces in particular, played a role in extending the negotiating process over cabinet seats. Michel Aoun, head of the Free Patriotic Movement bloc, struggled to gain cabinet representation commensurate with his party's 27 seats in parliament. Aoun eventually secured five portfolios while running what one member of the FPM called "a significant campaign that was not just about portfolios or names". Hizbullah managed two portfolios, with agriculture and administrative development assigned to Hussein Hajj Hassan and Mohamed Fneish respectively.
The cabinet's first task will be to formulate the ministerial statement which will set the mandate for the government for the next three and half years. According to the constitution the statement must be delivered within 30 days of the government being formed. A ministerial committee has been formed for this purpose.
The most difficult issue with which it must deal remains the right of the resistance to maintain their arms. Hizbullah officials have said repeatedly that they will accept no change to the status quo: since 2005 the formula adopted, by both the Najib Miqati and Fouad Al-Siniora governments, has been to express respect for international resolutions while insisting on the legitimate right to resist.
"The Lebanese resistance is the honest and true expression of the Lebanese people's right to liberate its land and defend its dignity": the line from previous statements is almost certain to be incorporated in Lebanon's new government mandate.


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