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President in waiting
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 24 - 05 - 2012

For the first time the Egyptian masses are making history in a true test of democracy. Shaden Shehab reports on a decisive moment in history
The day has finally arrived. Egyptians are about to elect their head of state for the first time in the country's 7,000 years of history determining not only the country's future but the region as a whole. There are 12 contenders, and as yet no clear front-runner.
The two-day vote began yesterday. According to Presidential Elections Commission (PEC) figures it involves 13,000 polling stations, 14,500 judges and 65,000 civil servants.
Until Al-Ahram Weekly went to print millions had stood cheerfully in line waiting to place their ballots in transparent boxes and then dip their finger in the phosphorous ink. Queues began to form outside polling stations even before they opened at 8am.
Voting yesterday and today is scheduled to end at 8pm but may be extended if turnout is higher than expected.
Around 60 per cent of Egypt's 50 million eligible voters cast ballots in the parliamentary elections. Some analysts expect the turnout to be more for the presidential poll.
Preliminary results are expected on Sunday. A window for appeals will then open, with official results announced on Tuesday 29 March. If no candidate secures more than 50 per cent of votes in the first round a run-off between the top two candidates is schedule for 16-17 June with the final results to be announced on 21 of the same month.
Schools were off yesterday and today, a practical consideration given most polling stations are located on school premises. Bank workers and many public sector employees were allowed one day off to vote.
Three foreign and 49 local organisations are monitoring the poll, supplemented by a number of independent popular initiatives working without official authorisation and using volunteers to report any violations they witness.
Police and army forces have been deployed outside polling stations to prevent any violence. Until the Weekly went to print there were no reports of large clashes or irregularities.
"The participation of citizens in the presidential election is the best guarantee of the transparency and security of the electoral process," Mohamed El-Assar, a member of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), told reporters.
"We will not allow any violation or attempt to influence the electoral process or the voters," he added.
The deviation came from one of the contenders as yesterday presidential candidate Ahmed Shafik broke the ban on campaigning immediately ahead of the vote by hosting a press conference yesterday at his campaign headquarters in Dokki. PEC immediately referred him to the prosecutor-general.
During the parliamentary elections last November campaigning continued against regulations, with voters being canvassed as they queued outside polling stations. This time voters are taking matters into their own hands. Al-Ahram Weekly reporters say they have regularly overheard annoyed voters telling interlocutors they need no advice on whom to vote for.
Others made sure even candidates had to stand in line to vote. We are all equal citizens, they were told. We do not want pharaohs to rule.
The leading contenders include former foreign minister and Arab League secretary-general Amr Moussa, seen as an experienced diplomat by some and labelled by others as fulul, a remnant of the old regime. Ahmed Shafik, say his supporters, is capable of restoring order, but he also carries the stigma of being Mubarak's last prime minister and a close associate of several of the people thought to be responsible for the infamous Battle of the Camel. Core supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate Mohamed Mursi are clearly seeking an Islamist state. His wider appeal, though, has been compromised by the group's stumbling performance in a parliament they dominate, and by fears that they are seeking to monopolise all the institutions of state.
Dissident Muslim Brother Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh has tried hard to portray himself as the consensus candidate. In the process, say his critics, he has promised all things to all men. Hamdeen Sabahi's supporters, while admitting he lacks political experience, insist the Nasserist is the only real alternative between the fulul and Islamists.
Candidates have spent weeks touring Egypt, promising a brighter future and chanting their slogans -- Abul-Fotouh's "a stronger Egypt"; Moussa's "We are up to the challenge"; Mursi's "a new renaissance"; Shafik's "actions not words" and Sabahi's "one of us" -- though there have been few if any policy specifics on exactly how they will engineer the promised reversal in Egypt's economic fortunes.
Eyewitnesses report that the Muslim Brotherhood has been busy distributing gas canisters and bagged foodstuffs to poor people in return for electoral support.
The pollsters place Moussa, Shafik and Abul-Fotouh in the lead, with Sabahi and Mursi trailing behind.
Many doubt the accuracy of polls that place Mursi bringing up the rear, given the Brotherhood's proven electoral strength. In parliamentary elections, the first in which the Muslim Brotherhood was allowed to run openly, it grabbed nearly half the seats.
Mursi won the majority of the expatriate votes, though only a fraction of the 600,000 eligible to vote actually cast a ballot, and no one could argue that they are representative of the more than 50 million voters in the country.
Opinion polls have also recorded around 30 per cent of the electorate remain undecided, more than enough to cause a major upset to the pollsters' predictions.
Still many believe, whether they voted or not, that none of the candidates fulfils the people's aspirations especially after a revolution in which hundreds died for the cause of a democratic nation. Young, indisputable leadership skills, experience and charisma were traits the masses longed for but no candidate fits all sizes.
Many dreams have boiled down to going back to living a "normal" life of political and economic stability rather than chaos. Now they are relying on the new president to at least get that back.
Whoever emerges as the winner, the new president will be expected to offer a burst of optimism after 15 tumultuous months of military rule which has seen many protesters killed or injured, the economy falter, security remain absent from the streets and a foreign policy lacking definition. A series of military appointed interim governments has failed to address the growing problems. Tourism and foreign investment have collapsed, unemployment is increasing and half of the country's currency reserves have been frittered away.
SCAF has vowed to hand power as soon as a new president is elected but it remains unclear what steps are in place to protect the position of privilege enjoyed by the military for more than 60 years.
"Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi will voluntarily give up his powers and will not seek any political position after the election," security analyst Sameh Seif El-Yazal said in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper on Tuesday.
As leading political analyst Mohamed Hassanein Heikal put it, the next president will need a miracle to be able to deal with the multiple challenges facing Egypt. And he must do so in the absence of clearly identified powers. The constituent assembly that is supposed to draft a new constitution hasn't even been formed.
Egypt's next president will be the nation's fifth since the monarchy fell in 1952, ushering in six decades of military rule.
In 2005, under US pressure, Egypt staged a multi-candidate presidential election but the exercise was purely cosmetic. No real challenge to Hosni Mubarak would have been tolerated.
"May God bring the most suitable man as president," said civil servant Shahira Ahmed to the women in front of her in line. "Egypt deserves it."


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