What have the latest opinion polls indicated regarding voting intentions in the upcoming presidential elections, asks Reem Leila Both the Information and Decision Support Centre (IDSC) and the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS) have been conducting regular independent polls over the past few weeks about the chances of each of the 13 presidential candidates of winning the upcoming presidential elections, the first round of which is scheduled for 23-24 May. The IDSC polls were conducted on samples of between 1,200 and 2,300 people through phone interviews. The respondents were over the age of 18 and distributed throughout the country, some 10 per cent of them refusing to respond to the survey. The ACPSS poll used a sample of 1,200 people interviewed through face-to-face interviews. Once again, the sample was distributed across the country, except for the border governorates, which represent two per cent of the Egyptian population. The IDSC, a think tank connected to the cabinet office, announced that its polls had revealed that candidates Amr Moussa and Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh stood at the same level in the public's estimation, with 11 per cent of those polled saying they would vote for them. Former prime minister Ahmed Shafik received eight per cent of the intentions to vote, whereas the Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Mursi came in fourth with four per cent. Hamdeen Sabahi came fifth with only two per cent of the votes. According to the IDSC poll, 42 per cent of voters have not yet decided which candidate they will vote for, down from 57 per cent in April. Eight per cent of those polled said they might not participate in the upcoming elections because they did not think they would be conducted on time, and six per cent refused to name a candidate. Seventeen per cent of the sample stated that they had not decided whether to vote or not in the elections. The poll revealed that Abul-Fotouh was the clear front-runner among male voters on 13 per cent, followed by Ahmed Shafik on 11 and Amr Moussa on eight. The three top candidates received the same rank of six per cent of preferences among female voters. Abul-Fotouh had the highest percentage of supporters in urban areas with 11 per cent. Moussa ranked second with eight, whereas Shafik got seven per cent. However, Shafik had the highest rates in rural areas with 10 per cent, Abul-Fotouh coming second on eight per cent and Moussa third on six per cent. Abul-Fotouh came in first among Muslims, with 10 per cent of Muslim respondents saying they would vote for him. Shafik came in second with eight per cent and Moussa third with seven per cent. Among Christians, Moussa came top on 12 per cent, followed by Sabahi with nine per cent, and Shafik third with six per cent. The IDSC poll showed that support for Abul-Fotouh had fallen from 13 per cent in April to 11 per cent in May, whereas Moussa's support had climbed from seven per cent to 11 per cent during the same period. Shafik's support had increased from six per cent in April to eight per cent in May. In terms of age, 46 per cent of the sample ranged between 18 and 30 years old. Thirty-nine per cent of those polled had received a secondary education. Forty-two per cent of respondents said they opposed the Muslim Brotherhood, and 46 per cent were against the Salafis. The ACPSS survey revealed that respondents professing liberal affiliations were more likely to vote for Moussa or Shafik, who together received more than 50 per cent of voting intentions during previous weeks of polling. Islamist supporters were apt to vote either for Abul-Fotouh, Mohamed Mursi or Selim El-Awwa, the survey found, who together received 35 per cent of intentions. The ACPSS poll, its eighth, indicated that 95 per cent of eligible voters were likely to vote in the upcoming presidential elections. The poll showed that Moussa led the race in the Upper Egyptian governorates of Assiut, Qena and Sohag, while Abul-Fotouh led in the coastal cities of Port Said and Suez and in the Minya, Beni Sweif and Fayoum governorates. Shafik had high approval ratings in the Delta governorates of Menoufiya and Gharbiya, while Mursi achieved better results in Daqahliya. The poll showed Moussa coming out top with 40.8 per cent of the vote, Abul-Fotouh jumping to second place with 24 per cent, pushing Shafik into third place with 17.2 per cent. The ACPSS poll indicated that the percentage of voters who have not yet decided which candidate they will vote for had increased from 10.7 per cent in the last poll to 15.3 per cent in this one. In a run-off scenario, the survey showed that Moussa would score 63.8 per cent, as against 36.2 per cent for Abul-Fotouh. Should the run-off take place between Abul-Fotouh and Shafik, the former would likely get 52.9 per cent of the votes, against 47.1 per cent for the latter. Should the run-off be between Abul-Fotouh and Mursi, the former would get 74.7 per cent of the votes, as against 25.3 per cent for the latter. If the run-off took place between Moussa and Shafik, the former would secure 68 per cent of the votes, and the later would get 32 per cent. If the run-off were between Abul-Fotouh and Shafik, the former would gain 52.9 per cent, whereas the later would secure 47.1 per cent. Egypt also saw opinion polls conducted before the People's Assembly and Shura Council elections. Adel Abdel-Ghaffar, a professor at the Faculty of Mass Communication at Cairo University, said that there were currently few centres able to carry out such polls in Egypt and follow proper scientific methodology in sampling the population and analysing the results. "Among these centres are Cairo University's own polling organisation, the ACPSS and the National Centre for Sociological and Criminological Research. Other centres do not have their high level of credibility," Abdel-Ghaffar said. Ali Leila, a professor of sociology at Ain Shams University in Cairo, disagreed, stating that the recent polls were inaccurate and did not mirror society. "The samples on which the polls have been conducted are very small, and they cannot be considered adequate for even one governorate. How can a sample of fewer than 3,000 people represent society," Leila asked. According to the latest census, Egypt has a population of 90 million, eight million of whom live abroad. "A truly scientific sample should be not less than 10 per cent of the population," Leila said.
