With Kadima now a partner in the coalition government, and the Israeli public veering strongly towards the right wing, Netanyahu is no longer fearful of being outmanoeuvred, writes Saleh Al-Naami It has been a dramatic week in Israeli politics. After Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu announced Sunday evening that he would dissolve parliament and hold early elections, and after political parties began to prepare for early voting, Netanyahu surprised everyone by announcing in the early hours Tuesday that he reached an agreement with the Kadima (Forward) Party -- the opposition party in the Knesset. The deal adds Kadima to the ruling coalition government, which cancels the decision for early elections. The decision surprised the media that was already busy strategising about how to cover the repercussions of early elections. The agreement between Netanyahu and Kadima president Shaul Mofaz states that after Kadima joins the coalition government, the government will stop exempting yeshiva (Jewish religious school) students from conscription to guarantee equality of military service for all Israelis. The two sides also agreed to change the rules of governance to reduce the influence of small parties on the political system. Netanyahu made a sweet deal. He has guaranteed himself another 18 months in power, and expanding his coalition government will enable him to deal with many sensitive strategic issues, especially Iran's nuclear programme. The agreement on drafting yeshiva students who were previously exempt from military service will serve Netanyahu well. He is now able to look secularists directly in the eye and say that he is the first Israeli prime minister who dared to challenge the ultra-religious and forced ultra- Orthodox youth to be drafted into the military. Mofaz, on the other hand, was saved from certain political death. Opinion polls predicted the collapse of Kadima, and in light of early elections and bleak expectations, he would have to quit politics like his predecessor Tzipi Livni after Mofaz defeated her in recent internal elections. Other winners in the deal are Shas Party president and Minister of Interior Rabbi Eli Yishai who was worried that Rabbi Aryeh Deri, the former leader of the movement, would form a new religious group that would compete with Shas over ultra-Orthodox voters of Eastern origins. Deri could have taken away many of the votes going to Shas. Another winner is Defence Minister Ehud Barak who heads the Independence Party, which according to opinion polls would have won very few seats in the next parliament. Cancelling early elections means Barak will remain minister of defence for another 18 months. The biggest losers, on the other hand, are Shelly Yachimovich, the new leader of the Labour Party, and Yair Lapid, the star journalist who quit his talk show on Channel 2 and formed Yesh Atid (There is a Future) Party that stands against religious coercion and against draft exemption for yeshiva students. Opinion polls predicted that early elections would give Yachimovich's party more seats in parliament since many Israelis who vote for Kadima would switch to her Labour Party, after Kadima failed to protect the interests of the middle class. Meanwhile, Lapid's popularity has soared since most secularists are angry about the conduct of religious parties and movements, and polls predicted his party would win at least 11 Knesset seats. After early elections were cancelled, both the Labour and Yesh Atid parties will lose much of their momentum and popularity, which is why both Yachimovich and Lapid were angered by the deal that Yachimovich described as a pact between cowards and "the most despicable act in Israeli politics since the creation of the state". Lapid said it is a model of "old and ugly politics that is more concerned with staying in power than principles". Another loser is Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman who heads the Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home) Party whose influence will dramatically plunge after expanding the ruling coalition. Lieberman will no longer be able to frequently threaten to disband the government whenever Netanyahu turns down his demands. So what were the reasons behind Netanyahu's decision to hold early elections and why did he change his mind so quickly? One of main reasons why Netanyahu decided to call early elections is his desire to cut back Lieberman's influence, the leader of the second largest party in the coalition after the Likud Party. Lieberman deliberately adopts policies that contradict Netanyahu's positions and curbs the prime minister's ability to move on the international stage, expressing views that primarily aim to outperform Netanyahu. The prime minister hoped that any elections would enable him to include more parties in the coalition government to reduce his dependency on Yisrael Beiteinu support, most notably the two centre right parties, Kadima and Lapid's Yesh Atid. So when he was able to convince Mofaz to join the coalition at barely no cost -- other than giving Mofaz the post of acting prime minister -- the move was a great personal gain for Netanyahu. At the same time, Netanyahu seems confident about his and his party's ability to win at any time irrespective of when elections are held. Netanyahu realises that the Israeli public is strongly moving in the direction of the extreme right. This is primarily reflected in the vast majority of Israelis adopting the far right view that there is no Arab partner for peace with Israel, and therefore there is no point in focusing on a political settlement to the conflict. Meanwhile, the popularity of religious parties and movements is also on the rise, and opinion polls predict that Israel's right will win an absolute majority in the next parliament. Hence, the seats that the Likud will win under Netanyahu's leadership will be almost double the number of seats of the next party in line. At the same time, polls confirm that Israelis view Netanyahu as the leader most qualified to steer the Zionist entity through the transformations in the region. The deal between Mofaz and Netanyahu will also reduce the challenges posed by the ultra-religious extreme right inside Netanyahu's Likud Party. Most estimates assert that early elections would mean that internal Likud elections to choose Knesset candidates would result in an electoral list of mostly ultra- religious candidates on the right. Representatives of settlers will dominate the party list, especially Moshe Feiglin the leader of Manhigut Yehudit (Jewish Leadership), who flaunts his advocacy of imposing Jewish sovereignty over Al-Aqsa Mosque. Feiglin also advocates using Hitler's tactics against Jews when Israel is dealing with the Palestinians. Such a list would curb Netanyahu's manoeuvrability and flexibility in Israeli foreign policy, especially towards the US. Also, including Kadima in the ruling coalition is in fact the last nail in the coffin of reviving efforts to resolve the conflict with the Arabs -- even though these efforts only aimed to save face for the Palestinian Authority and justify its continuation in power. Mofaz will not lift a finger to rein in Netanyahu from pandering to his voter base on the right, by significantly expanding support for settlement projects in the West Bank and continued Judaisation of Jerusalem. Likud Minister of Science Benny Begin revealed that Netanyahu would soon issue urgent legislation to legalise all settlement projects that settlers have erected on private Palestinian land without coordinating with the Israeli government. Netanyahu will also soon issue laws that curb the powers of the Israeli Supreme Court in blocking settlers from annexing more Palestinian land.
