As elections near, Israel is swinging to the right, the only question being how far, writes Khaled Amayreh in Ramallah One of the main but undeclared goals of the recent Israeli blitzkrieg against the Gaza Strip was to significantly enhance the chances of the Kadima and Labour parties in upcoming Israeli elections, slated for 10 February. Conventional wisdom has it that Israeli Jewish voters are more likely to give their votes to candidates with a reputation of toughness vis-à-vis the Palestinians. In the popular and political lexicon, this means spilling Palestinian blood, destroying more Palestinian homes and narrowing Palestinian horizons. Kadima and Labour party leaders had hoped that the killing and maiming of thousands of Palestinians, mostly innocent civilians, coupled with the relentless bombing and destruction of Gaza's civilian infrastructure, including schools, hospitals and agricultural land, would put both parties in an advantageous position against the Likud, led by Benyamin Netanyahu. However, post-war polls have shown that the genocidal Gaza onslaught didn't dramatically help Kadima and that the popularity boost it briefly obtained during the Gaza campaign proved variable rather than constant. Indeed, the polls show that Netanyahu remains the candidate most favoured by Israelis to become the country's next prime minister. According to a poll released 25 January, 29 per cent of Israelis said they want to see Netanyahu become Israel's next premier. Kadima leader Tzipi Livni received only 16 per cent support, with Labour leader Ehud Barak trailing with nine per cent. Another recent poll, released 23 January, showed that the Likud would win 28 of the 120 seats contested making up the Israeli parliament. Kadima came second with 24 seats, with both the Labour Party and Yisrael Beteinu (Israel is our Home) Party receiving 16 seats each. Yisrael Beteinu is led by Avigdor Lieberman, an extremist right-wing Jewish immigrant who shamelessly advocates ethnic cleansing of non-Jews as well as the use of nuclear weapons against Israel's adversarial neighbours, including Lebanon and the Palestinians. Lieberman is widely considered one of the main winners of the Israeli war on Gaza as Israeli Jewish voters "go jingoistic" in times of war and uncertainty. Deteriorating economic conditions, including growing unemployment, and especially among the estimated one million Jewish Russian immigrants, militate in Lieberman's favour. The Likud hopes to draw many potential voters from Lieberman's supporters, especially in light of ongoing police investigations into charges of fraud, money laundering and violations of public trust against the Yisrael Beteinu chief. However, it is not likely that Lieberman would lose significantly as a result of this corruption scandal since the Jewish Russian public has little faith in the Israeli justice system and in police integrity. Disappointed by her party's mediocre boost despite the Gaza bloodbath, Kadima leader Livni and her hawkish partner, former army chief Shaul Mofaz, have been issuing more bellicose statements against Hamas, seemingly in the hope of attracting more voters. In her election tours, Livni has been projecting a tough and uncompromising stance vis-à-vis the Palestinians, especially Hamas. For his part, Mofaz on 26 January threatened to assassinate Ismail Haniyeh, the elected prime minister of the Gaza-based Hamas government. "As long as Gilad Shalit doesn't see the light of day, you won't see the light of day. As long as Shalit doesn't go free, you and your friends will not be free. We won't hesitate to send you on the way we sent Yassin and Rantisi," he said referring to Hamas's spiritual leader Ahmed Yassin and deputy Abdel-Aziz Al-Rantisi who were murdered by Israel in 2004. Barak, too, has been playing on the war, trying to sell himself as "the war hero of the Gaza campaign". According to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Barak will try to woo Russian Jewish voters by quoting Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's famous statement about killing Chechen fighters: "As you people say, they should be whacked when they're on the toilet." Until a few weeks ago, Barak was nearly irrelevant in the Russian street as polls indicated that the Labour Party would get less than half a Knesset seat from the Russian sector. With the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip failing to eradicate Hamas, which is reemerging defiant and politically triumphant, it is probably safe to assume that the Likud and other extreme- right parties will receive the lion's share of the Knesset's seats. However, Likud leader Benyamin Netanyahu is also facing a serious image problem as his opponents in Kadima and Labour are arguing that as premier he wouldn't be on good terms with new US President Barack Obama, paralysing if not killing the peace process. In response, Netanyahu has sought to enhance his image by declaring that if elected prime minister he wouldn't allow the building of new Jewish settlements. He did say, however, that present settlements could continue to expand as part of what he called "natural growth". This week, and using the Obama election jingle "Yes, we can", Netanyahu spelled out his political priorities, which included numerous attempts to divert the attention of the new US administration from the core issue, namely the Israeli occupation of Palestine and continued building of Jewish-only colonies on occupied territories. Netanyahu mentioned, inter alia, Iran's nuclear programme (ignoring Israel's huge nuclear arsenal), Hamas (ignoring the fact that it was elected by the Palestinian people in free and democratic elections), its alleged rearmament and smuggling, and Hizbullah's "control" over Lebanon, as if these were issues preventing Israel from ending its occupation and persecution of the Palestinian people. Nonetheless, Israeli leaders are beginning to sense that Obama is not exactly George W Bush, and that he won't be as easily bamboozled by Israeli disinformation. There seems to be widespread support for the idea of forming a government of national unity, led by the Likud and including the Kadima and Labour parties as well as Shas, the ultra Orthodox Haredi Party representing Jews from the Middle East. Such a coalition would muster a comfortable parliamentary majority of at least 75 Knesset seats. However, given significant political differences between the Likud, which harbours many of the features of an extreme right-wing party, and Kadima, such a government could well be a government of "national paralysis" rather than unity. In all events, it appears that Netanyahu will have to choose between forming a stable and strong government with extreme right- wing and religious parties, which would potentially put him in conflict with the Obama administration, or a coalition with Kadima, Labour and probably Shas, which would be weak and fraught with internal problems.
