The results of the Israeli elections are a disaster for moderates, writes Khaled Amayreh from occupied East Jerusalem With most votes now counted the results of the Israeli general elections show a clear drift to the right and a collapse in support for centrist and leftist Zionist parties. The Kadima Party, led by Tzipi Livni, is expected to end with 28 seats, followed by Likud, led by Benyamin Netanyahu, with 27, though one, perhaps two Kadima seats may prove vulnerable once the votes of serving soldiers are counted. The extreme right Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel is our Home), headed by Avigdor Lieberman, has won 14-15 seats, becoming the third largest party in the Knesset. Yisrael Beiteinu has called for the ethnic cleansing of Israel's Arab minority (23 per cent of the population). Lieberman has said his party will refuse to join any government not committed to the destruction of Hamas. Dany Ayalon, former Israeli ambassador to the US who occupied the seventh position on the party list, voiced the hope that "in the next elections, we will be vying for national leadership". The Labour Party is the big loser in the poll, winning just 13 seats on 12 per cent of the popular vote. It is unclear if the Labour Party will accept to be a junior coalition partner with either Kadima or the Likud. Labour leader Ehud Barak had hoped that the bloody onslaught on Gaza would enhance his prospects in the elections. He took credit for the Gaza blitz and sought to project himself as a "war hero", a strategy that has clearly backfired. Meretz, a traditional ally of the Labour Party, also suffered a setback winning just three seats. Meretz supported the war on Gaza which seems to have cost it precious support among Israeli Arab voters. The three Arab parties contesting the elections are likely to emerge with 11-12 seats, a surprise result given that some Islamist and leftist groups had called for the poll to be boycotted. Both Livni and Netanyahu have declared victory, though the real position remains unclear until army votes are tallied. That the "national camp" (rightist and religious parties) have won 64-65 out of the 120 seats is likely to hamper any attempts by Kadima to form a coalition. Some analysts argue that Livni could cobble together a government with Labour, Shas (9-10 seats) and Meretz but its survival would be contingent on the goodwill of Arab Knesset members, an unacceptable taboo in Israeli politics. The more likely scenario is that Livni will try to woo Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu to join a coalition that would also include the Labour Party and some other smaller groups, including Shas. Labour party leaders, however, are expected to oppose working alongside Lieberman, and the bad blood between Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu is no secret. Livni's chances of forming the next Israeli government are precarious at best. Those of Netanyahu may look more promising on paper, but he will face an uphill task. While Lieberman and his party were viewed as a "rightist asset" before the elections, they are likely to be proven a liability in any government led by the Likud. There are widespread fears that any government in which Lieberman's party enjoys a leading role will jeopardise relations with Washington, Israel's guardian-ally. Such a government, say Israeli commentators, would effectively kill the "peace process". Netanyahu would seek to overcome his "bad image" with eloquent but insincere proclamations about the government's commitment to peace but unfortunately he will not be dealing with the Bush administration but one that has a more nuanced reading of Israeli intentions. Netanyahu is likely, therefore, to establish a stable government of national unity with either Kadima, the Labour Party or both, most probably with Shas on board. The ideological and political divides between its constituent parts, however, could well paralyse the government. Could Netanyahu and Livni agree to a rotating premiership, with each serving as prime minister for two years? The possibility has been mooted, but so too have its drawbacks. Each would face accusations of being unprincipled and power hungry. Some Likud officials have already ruled out "rotating arrangements" with Livni. Palestinians reacted negatively to the Israeli elections even before the publication of the results. A Palestinian taxi driver from Hebron told Al-Ahram Weekly that "Israeli political parties are like venomous snakes, the only difference is that they have different colours". Palestinian intellectuals seem to have lost all faith in any Israeli will to end the occupation that started more than 40 years ago. "The Palestinian Authority has been holding protracted peace talks with the Kadima government but to no avail. Imagine how futile and pointless peace talks will be with a government led by Netanyahu and Lieberman and other extremists," says Hani Al-Masri, a leading political analyst. Al-Masri argues that "Israel has decided to elect an extremist government despite Palestinian illusions about peace." "I think we have to rebuild our strength because neither Israel nor the world will respect us if we continue weak and divided." Hamas has denounced the outcome of the Israeli elections, arguing that "a racist society has produced a racist leadership". "Now we have a manifestly fascist leadership in Israel that doesn't believe in peace and doesn't recognise a Palestinian state. So why does the hypocritical West not boycott these fascist parties, such as Lieberman's party, as it boycotted the Hamas- led government that was elected freely and democratically by the Palestinian people more than two years ago," said Ahmed Youssef, a senior advisor to Ismail Haniyeh, prime minister of the Gaza- based Hamas-led government. Youssef advised the Arab and Muslim worlds "not to pay attention to what Netanyahu and his cohorts say but to what they do". "They will claim to want peace but they will be building more settlements and stealing more Arab land."
